If we could predict eruptions, we would! Linear system Input A -> Output X Input B -> Output Y

1. FUTUREVOLC: From forecasts towards early warning – the importance for Europe of improved understanding of seismicity in Iceland Christopher Bean (1) Eva Eibl (1) Kristin Vogfjord (2) FreysteinnSigmundsson (3), and the FUTUREVOLC team (1) Seismology Lab., School of Geological Sciences, University College Dublin. (chris.bean@ucd.ie, eva.eibl@ucdconnect.ie) (2) Icelandic Meteorological Office (vogfjord@hi.is) (3) Nordic VolcanologicalCenter, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland (fs@hi.is)

2. If we could predict eruptions, we would! Linear system Input A -> Output X Input B -> Output Y (A+B) -> (X+Y) and Input A -> Output X Input cA -> Output cX <- Not satisfied on volcanoes <- Not satisfied on volcanoes Volcanic systems are non-linear (=> very difficult to predict)

3. … But the system is not random – so we can use forecasting on Volcanoes • Phenomenological approach • Understanding the physics & chemistry of the system (modelling) • ‘Missed’ eruptions & false alarms are inevitable ... How about early warning (not forecasting) based on early eruption detection? • FUTUREVOLC attempting to implement an early warning system based on eruption initiation for glacier covered volcanoes.

6. From Kristin Vogfjord

7. Question: What do we need for Early Warning?Answer: (1) An understanding of background seismicity (2)To understand the ‘fingerprint’ seismic signals of sub-glacial eruption initiation.

8. Typical pre-eruptive volcano-seismic events (1)(non glacial) • Long Period (low frequency), long duration events

9. Mýrdalsjökull glacier (Myr) in South Iceland, atop Katlavolcano Repeating LP-events. Unfiltered waveforms (z-component) of LP-events recorded at a broad band station 1.5 km northwest of the epicentres. K. Jónsdóttir

10. Proposed alternative model for LP events at western Mýrdalsjökull K. Jónsdóttir, PhD thesis

11. LP event recorded in Southern Vatnajökull Data from Vatnsfell, 82km from source Closest station, Kálfafell, 23km from source K. Jónsdóttir, PhD Thesis

12. Propagation path effects, Mt Etna Bean et al, in review

13. Typical pre-eruptive volcano-seismic events (2)(non glacial) • Tremor (sometimes harmonic)

14. What about fluid ‘bursts’?

15. S. Kedar, PhD Thesis, 1996

16. S. Kedar, PhD Thesis, 1996 So in this case the tremor is path related …

17. Tremor on Arenal, Costa Rica. Lesage et al , 2006

18. Current model for tremor at Arenal…

19. In Iceland – what about the ice? Seismic signals generated by colliding icebergs at the Antarctic Ice Sheet. MacAyeal et al, 2008

20. Iceberg interacting with the coast, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica Muller et al, 2005

21. Initial Work: Tremor from a Jökulhlaup (glacial flood) • Increasing amplitude, station SKR & JOK on Sept. 2nd 2012 • SKR: Guralp CMG-3 ESP = bb • JOK: Guralp CMG-3 ESP = bb

22. Initial Work: Tremor from a Jökulhlaup

23. Initial Work: Tremor from a Jökulhlaup

24. Summary • Long Period events might be: • Ice falls? • Magma • Steam (with strong path effects) • Tremor might be: • Ice interactions • Water floods • Magma => We need better resolution tremor observation networks …

25. Western Vat. Arrays, Nunataksx2, Glacier sensorx2

27. We plan to: • Locate tremor events using array data • Separate the seismic wavefield (multiple sources) • Track speed of tremor migration • Track glacier deformation and translation • Compare tremor with Jökulhlaups & water chemistry

28. Proposed thematic integration … Topic: Quantitatively compare tremor at volcanoes covered with ice (FUTUREVOLC) with tremor at MED-SUV volcanoes