Scottish Election 2011

1. Scottish Election 2011 What does it mean for Higher Modern Studies?

2. A Game-changer? • This was the election no one predicted • Not only did the SNP win, it won a • parliamentary majority • over all the other parties – • something few people believed • was possible under the AMS • Scottish Labour, Conservatives and • Liberal Democrats • will all have new leaders as they try and • deal with the seismic shift in Scottish politics • The SNP Government can now argue for the Scotland Bill going through Westminster to give new powers to Scotland • It will also introduce a referendum on independence • Is this the “new Scotland”?

3. The Results • The SNP now has an overall majority. The party won 45.4% of the constituency vote • The SNP now has more constituency MSPs than Labour • The Lib Dems vote collapsed, with most of their voters switching to SNP

4. Labour loses its big Hitters • Not only did Labour lose 7 MSPs, it lost some of its most capable politicians. Andy Kerr, Frank McAveety, Tom McCabe and Pauline McNeil will be hard to replace. • Iain Gray is standing down as Leader. With many inexperienced MSPs, up against a resurgent, majority SNP Government, the party has it all to do to become a force again.

5. Majority Scottish Government • Few people believed this would ever happen • The AMS voting system almost ensured Coalition or Minority Government • Almost • The AMS can’t stop a landslide result • This was an SNP landslide

6. First Minister Alex Salmond has expanded his team • How many can you name? • Because Westminster has moved to a fixed five year term, this Scottish parliamentary term will be for five years too • Big events will be the 2014 Commonwealth Games and Ryder Cup. Good opportunities for the SNP to promote independence… Scottish Cabinet May 2011

7. Majority Scottish Government • The Scottish Government, with this mandate from the voters and a parliamentary majority, will surely now act on the policies it was unable to pass during the previous Scottish Parliament. So, expect • Minimum Pricing of Alcohol • Introduction of a Local income Tax • Demands for more powers for the Scottish Parliament in the Westminster Scotland Bill • A referendum on Independence

8. Party Campaign • Party Leadership • Party policies • Influence of the media • Influence of social class So, why did the SNP win such a majority? Let’s look at….

9. Party Campaign: SNP • The SNP’s message was; this what we’ve done so far, give us another term to do even more • Voters understood it and with independence “parked” in a future referendum, Labour couldn’t scare voters away from the SNP • The campaign was both professional and modern • Key voters in key seats were identified and wooed • Both Party leaders and activists Twittered purposely

10. Party Campaign: Scottish Labour • It’s probably fair to say that Scottish Labour’s campaign was, at best, unimaginative and at worst, negative • Fighting for what really matters? Who isn’t? • Other than this, Scottish Labour was on the defensive, saying how bad the SNP was without getting across how Labour would be better • Iain Gray’s retreat from anti-cuts protestors into a sandwich shop seemed to define Labour’s campaign

11. Party Campaign: Scottish Conservatives • The theme of “common sense” was mostly about more police officers and cutting taxes • Not unpopular policies in themselves, but the “toxic” nature of the Conservative brand in Scotland remains • The combination of the memory of the Thatcher years and the unpopularity of the UK “Con-Dem” Coalition meant that the party won only 3 constituency seats and just 14% of the vote • Leader Annabel Goldie has resigned.

12. Party Campaign: Scottish Liberal Democrats • The Scottish Liberal Democrats got a pasting • The unpopularity of the UK party’s coalition with the Conservatives, in particular the U turn over university tuition fees, was a significant factor • Leader Tavish Scott has resigned and has been replaced by Willie Rennie.

13. A Question of Leadership • Opinion poll evidence showed that most voters preferred Alex Salmond to be First Minister • Indeed, for may voters he was the only party leader they knew • One poll showed only 7% of voters recognised Iain Gray • Some people even thought Tavish Scott was the banker Fred Goodwin • The SNP campaign focused on the leadership issue, even putting Alex Salmond’s name on the Party List ballot paper

14. Policies • The SNP’s policies were the most • popular with the public • Indeed, Labour had to abandon it’s • opposition to a Council Tax freeze • to match the SNP’s promise • Crucially, the SNP also weren’t • offering independence, but a • future referendum on whether • Scotland should be independent • Voters, therefore who liked the • SNP/Alex Salmond but weren’t convinced about independence could vote SNP without committing themselves to independence • By contrast, other parties weren’t offering voters the option

15. Scotland’s most popular paper is The Scottish Sun • It likes to claim that it’s support wins elections • In 2007, it was very anti-SNP • But the SNP won • Now, in 2011 the newspaper changed it’s mind…. Newspaper Coverage

16. 2011 • And hey, ho, the SNP is now not that bad after all! • So, did The Sun win it? • Or, did it simply pick the winning team? • What it did do was to energise the SNP’s campaign and demoralise Labour’s

17. The SNP made some staggering gains in very traditional Labour areas. • This shows that social classes D and E are now prepared, for Scottish elections at least, to abandon Labour • But the social classes are changing • More Scots are now property owners, work in the private sector, perhaps are self-employed or work at homes • The work place loyalties to Labour are not so strong • “Mondeo man” or “School gate Mum” is very much up for grabs Influence of Social Class

18. Is a fundamental shift in Scottish voting behaviour taking place? • In the 1950s the Conservatives were Scotland’s most popular party. Now, they are down to 14% of the vote and are a minority party • Labour’s vote this time only actually dropped by 0.5% • But, can the party come back? • Could it go the same way as the Conservatives? • Will the SNP become the new power in Scotland? • Will Scotland vote for independence? 2011: A Game-Changer?