Objective

1. Analysis of permafrost thermal dynamics and response to climate change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models Objective Climate warming may lead to loss of permafrost and act as a carbon cycle feedback, but no large, multi-model syntheses have been conducted yet to assess the physical vulnerability of permafrost. Our objective here was to look at the CMIP5 models for: (1) the range of predictions for permafrost response to climate change; and (2) understand differences in the physical representation of permafrost between the models and observations in order to understand differences in the dynamics. Conclusions All CMIP5 models show some loss of permafrost with warming, but the range of predictions for permafrost extent in the current climate is large and indicative of a range of qualities in the model representation of permafrost physics. We identify several key areas of disagreement between the model physics, including snow insulation and frozen soil hydrology, and propose that significant development needs to focus on these processes. Koven CD, Riley WJ, Stern A. (2012) Analysis of permafrost thermal dynamics and response to climate change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00228.1.