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EMB Mechanical engineering 30. september 2010 to 01.10.2010

EMB Mechanical engineering 30. september 2010 to 01.10.2010. Mechanical engineering in the EU 27 The Crisis and Challenges of the future Sources: IG Metall, FB Wirtschaft - Technologie – Umwelt Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis) Eurostat Ifo-Institut (Ifo) Stand: 30.09.2010.

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EMB Mechanical engineering 30. september 2010 to 01.10.2010

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  1. EMB Mechanical engineering 30. september 2010 to 01.10.2010 • Mechanical engineering in the EU 27 • The Crisis and Challenges of the future • Sources: • IG Metall, FB Wirtschaft - Technologie – Umwelt • Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis) • Eurostat • Ifo-Institut (Ifo) Stand: 30.09.2010 Kerstin Warneke, FB Wirtschaft – Technologie – Umwelt, Maschinenbau

  2. Contents • Background information about mechanical engineering • The crisis in 2009 • The Pick-up in 2010 • Future beyond 2011

  3. Part 1 • Background information about mechanical engineering in the EU

  4. Part 0: Background informationabout mechanical engineering two basic characteristics of mechanical engineering: • concentrated in the EU 27 in • Germany, • Italy, • France, • United Kingdom, • Spain • heterogenous branche • many different products • large-scale production in many cases not paying off • many small enterprises

  5. Part 1: Background informationMechanical engineering is concentrated in the EU in Germany, Italy, F, UK, E 76 %

  6. Part 1: Background informationMechanical engineering consists of many small branches

  7. Part 1: Background informationSME are typical for mechanical engineering

  8. Contents • Background information about mechanical engineering • Policy for SME • The crisis in 2009 • The Pick-up in 2010 • Future beyond 2011

  9. Contents • Background information about mechanical engineering • The crisis in 2009 • The Pick-up in 2010 • Future beyond 2011

  10. Part 2 • Year 2009 • worldwide financial and economic crisis • worldwide stop of investmens • mechanical engineering: worldwide simultanous break-down of turnover and productiontime-delayed decrease of employment

  11. Worldwide GDP:The worldwide financial and economic crisis of 2009

  12. Effects on mechanical engineering in the EU 27 Mechanical Engineering 2008 2009 • new order - 5,3 % - 30,3 % • production + 1,3 % - 26,0 % • turnover + 21,3% - 24,0 % • employment + 2,2% - 5,1 %

  13. Production of mechanical engineeringpeak to low: decrease -30% 122,3 (1. Qt. 08) 108,3 (2006) -30% 85,6 (2. Qt. 09)

  14. Downturn hits … (change rates yoy) • all branches of mechanical engineering • all countries of the EU 27

  15. Employment in mechanical engineering:Decrease of production causes fall of employment - 11 % (01/2010 to (03/2008)

  16. Contents • Background information about mechanical engineering • The crisis in 2009 • The Pick- up in 2010 • Future beyond 2011

  17. Part 3 • 2010 • turnover and production • strong growth but • speed of growth goes down because • recovery of europe mainly based on exports • recovery in USA looses pace • recovery in China looses pace, too • still lower level than before crisis • growth not everywhere (country, sector) • employment • decrease

  18. Worldwide Economic Activity (of 41 countries):slowdown percentage index Climate-Index (right scale) Real GDP Source: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW)

  19. GDP:growing worldwide economy

  20. GDP:Biggest growth from countries like China and India

  21. Effects on mechanical engineering in the EU 27 2008 2009 1. half 2010 • new order - 5,3 % - 30,3 % + 25,0 % • production + 1,3 % - 26,0 % - • turnover + 21,3% - 24,0 % +3,8 % • employment + 2,2% - 5,1 % -10,7%

  22. Development of growth of New order is gaining speed quarter by quarter despite risks

  23. Development of growth of New order by country (02/2010) vs. (01/2010) nearly everywhere improvement for Italy change rate 01/2010 against (04/2009)

  24. Production of mechanical engineering:growing quickly (yoy), already +8,5% compared to crises, but still low level 122,3 (1. Qt. 08) -24% 92,5 (2. Qt. 10) 84,4 + 8,5%(3. Qt. 09)

  25. Development of growth of Production:growing quarterly, low speed

  26. Productionis growing in comparison to last year • in many branches of mechanical engineering • at least in some important countries (Germany, Italy, UK)

  27. Employment of mechanical engineeringis still going down (yoy)

  28. Development of growthVolume of working time and employmentnegative development comes to an end

  29. Part 4 • Future beyond 2011

  30. Megatrends, that effect mechanical engineering 1. Change of climate: 1.1 Other products 1.2 Other ways of production 1.3 Rising costs for resources and factors of production 5. Reduction of public debts mean to less demand which means more competition, too 2. Globalization: 4. Individualization of markets 2.1 competition with low cost countries 4.1 Growing interdisziplinarity 2.2 presence in foreign countries 2.3 developing countries grow with greater force than „old markets“ 4.2 Shorter processing times 3. Demographic change 3.1 Lack of skilled workers 3.2 other goods are demanded

  31. Examples how employers may react as a result of the megatrends 2. Liqudity (more and more flexible) 3. Cluster Cooperations 1. cut costs 1.1 lower wages 2.1 innovation 1.2 push more tasks on employees 1.3 longer working time and more flexible working time 1.4 more temporary work 1.5 employment of workers of low cost countries 2.2 service abroad 4. tax reduction for enterprises 5. Improve Public Appearance of enterprise 3.1 to gain skilled workers 3.2 spend money on workers

  32. What the megatrends mean for employees(and what this means unions) 1. higher flexibility: 1.2 geographic mobility 1.1 time flexibility 1.3 knowledge is at every time up to date 1.4 interdisciplinary knowledge 1.5 to pay for the constant eduction on ones own 5. higher pressure on wages because of low-cost competition 4. less security 4.1 job security 4.2 income security 2. higher physical fitness 3. higher productivity 2.1 to be able to work longer Examples for Tasks for unions - New Working time modells, - against temporary employment, -minimum wages, - save social standards, - make employers pay for education, …

  33. Part 5 • Reasons for a special policy for SME

  34. Characteristics of SME... outside the enterprise inside the enterprise lack of (good) reputation in other regions higherlocal dependency (not typical for mechanical engineering) • worse access to qualified staff • no / few personnel policy • worse employee participation than in GU • low innovative power • few research and development • worse access to money • …… can‘t survive a price competition against large scale produciton

  35. Reasons for a special policy for SME with regard to the supply side / the enterprise Characteristis of SME less innovationsless research and development Possible tasks Förderung von Kooperationentransparente finanzielle Förderung von der Gründung bis zur Erzeugung marktreifer Produkte ?

  36. Reasons for a special policy for SME in Germany SME invest less than bigger enterprises in the future Innovatoren sind Unternehmen, die innerhalb der letzten 3 Jahre zumindest ein Innovationsprojekt erfolgreich abgeschlossen haben. Es muss sich dabei nicht um eine Neuerfindung handeln. industries wit a high proportion of research other industries service sector with other services high proportion of skill-intensive work Source: ZEW, Mannheim

  37. Reasons for a special policy for SME in Germany Higher costs for innovations in SME Innovationsintensität: Anteil des Umsatzes, den ein Unternehmen für Innovationen ausgibt share of sales for innovations other industries service sector with other services high proportion of skill-intensive work industries wit a high proportion of research Source: ZEW, Mannheim

  38. Innovations pay off less in SME share of sales caused by new innovative products reduction of costs caused by innovations of the production process Source: ZEW, Mannheim

  39. Reasons for a special policy for SME • Investment in mechanical engineering in Germany • 25 % spent money in research and development only every now and then • 49 % don‘t do any research and development • Reason: • not enough financial power • innovations are more expensive for SME because of high share of fixed costs for innovative projects • less profits through innovations • not in times of big changes high risk that SME realise too late what is going on

  40. Reasons for a special policy for SME with regard to the supply side / the enterprise Characteristis of SME not enough equity capital / problems in financing Possible tasks steuerliche Forschungsförderung speziell für KMU?

  41. Reasons for a special policy for SME Less equity capital in SME

  42. Reasons for a special policy for SME Least equity capital in non-coporate SME

  43. Reasons for a special policy for sme • Characteristics of SME • 4. worse working conditionsExamples: • less co-determination und wrights to get informations • compensation • longer working time • more flexibility • Possible tasks • gaining of members • more codetermination • higher wage-rises according to productivity Tarifbindung der KMU erhöhen • working time models according to the whishes of workers

  44. Reasons for a special policy for sme • Characteristika von SME • 4. schlechtere ArbeitsbedingungenBeispiele: • Soziale Absicherung (Rente) • Weiterbildung, Ausbildungsmöglichkeit der Beschäftigten • Handlungsansätze • Ausbau der betrieblichen Altersrente • mehr Weiterbildungsanstrengungen in KMU • Anspruch auf Mitsprache bei der Weiterbildung • Vernetzung von Forschung und Bildung

  45. Reasons for a special policy for sme • Characteristics of SMEs • - depend to higher degree than big enterprises on the demand of the domestic market • Policy for the demand-side of the economy through the state- monetary policy in favour of demand • rise of wages according to productivity • against austerity

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