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‘Go Forth and Multiply’ The Politics of Religious Demography

‘Go Forth and Multiply’ The Politics of Religious Demography. Eric Kaufmann and Vegard Skirbekk. Outline. Religion determined by demography Fertility Migration Cohort variation in affiliation/intensity Implications Religion and politics Conclusion.

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‘Go Forth and Multiply’ The Politics of Religious Demography

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  1. ‘Go Forth and Multiply’The Politics of Religious Demography Eric Kaufmann and Vegard Skirbekk

  2. Outline Religion determined by demography Fertility Migration Cohort variation in affiliation/intensity Implications Religion and politics Conclusion

  3. fertilityaffiliation and religious intensity Religious individuals tend to have higher fertility – and often see their childbearing patterns to be an outcome of their religion (Borooah 2004; McQuillan 2004) Total fertility rate (TFR) by affiliation in Austria, 2001 (Goujon 2007)Muslim: 2.3, Catholic:1.3, Protestant: 1.2, No religion: 0.9 by intensity in Larsmo/Finland 1979, Protestants (Finnäs 1991). Lesthadians (more conservative): 6.5 , non-Lesthadian: 1.7

  4. MigrationMigrants’ fertility (if religious) often relatively high

  5. cohortsAffiliation may change along cohort lines Birth year Proportion without affiliation by cohort, Spain age Example: Later born cohorts in Spain are more secular (Skirbekk et al. 2008) Many studies consider how values affect demography, few study how demographic dynamics affect values

  6. Ageing A B A B Mortality by status Migration by status Transitions by status A B B A Fertility differentials by status Intergenerational transmission of status A B A B projection methodologyMulti-state cohort-component projection age Male Female Male Female a + x A B B a A Time t Time t + x

  7. projecting beliefsEuropean identity In Science (2006) Lutz, Kritzinger and Skirbekk estimated and projected European identity as a function of cohort and age 90 80 70 60 Per cent with some degree of European Identity 50 Data: Eurobarometer surveys for EU 15. 40 1996 2004 30 2030 20 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 Age Survey question: Do you see yourself as having some degree of European identity – as opposed to only national identity? Survey question: Do you see yourself as having some degree of European identity – as opposed to only national identity? Survey question: Do you see yourself as having some degree of European identity – as opposed to only national identity?

  8. 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 religionAustria 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1900 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Source: Statistics Austria, Census 1900 to 2001, projections IIASA / VID, FcnvMmedTcon

  9. religionPolitics Religion and politics directly entwined through establishment or religious regulation (Iran) But even if not, religion bears on politics through: • Electoral cleavages • Domestic policy (alcohol, school prayer, abortion, religious law) • Foreign Policy (alliances, conflict sacralization, missionary unilateralism) • Nongovernment actors (such as terrorism) Near-majority of civil wars and terrorism now involves religion (Toft 2007; Philpott 2007)

  10. Political Demography of Religion Shifts in Groups by Religious Tradition • Civilizational (i.e. Christianity, Islam, Hindu, Judaic)– affects IR and can form the basis of domestic conflicts • Church/Sect (i.e. Lutheran, Shia, Pentecostal)– affects domestic politics, but often has transnational effects Shifts in Groups by Religious Intensity • Attendance, belief/theology (i.e. conservative/Orthodox vs. liberal/modernist; regular v occasional attenders)

  11. Why Now? A Demographic Revolution • Global demographic disparities + globalization = migration from religious to secular regions • In developed world, values increasingly drive fertility Sociological Change • Democratization makes population size important • Secularization in West, but: • ‘Strict churches’: revival of conservative Islam, Pentecostalism Net effect: direct & indirect conservative religious growth

  12. religion as civilizationGlobal past and future

  13. Domestic religious affiliation

  14. religious intensity

  15. Conclusion • Changing balance of religious traditions/intensities affects domestic and international politics • Islam will grow • Secularism will grow in the West until 2020-50 • Conservative theologies are expanding in major Abrahamic faiths • Longer term (2020-50) effects, apart from Israel • Proximate mechanism often awareness of change, which can spark anxiety and conflict

  16. Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561 respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

  17. Religiosity and Fertility in Muslim Countries, 2000 Egypt Bangladesh Nigeria Iran Morocco Tanzania Uganda Pakistan Azerbaijan '95-97 Jordan Indonesia Turkey Bosnia Albania 2000 Albania '95-97 Algeria Source: 2000 WVS and World Bank.

  18. Thank you

  19. Net migrants Resident population

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