Multi-Faceted Services of New NWS Local Climate Products

1. Multi-Faceted Services of New NWS Local Climate Products Marina Timofeyeva, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and NOAA NWS Contributors: Robert Livezey, Michael Brewer, Annette Hollingshead and David Unger NOAA NWS OCWWS CSD

2. Outline • Lessons of L3MTO implementation • New local user needs • What NWS can offer in response to these needs? • New local product: 3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts (3MOLEI) with Rate of Local Climate Change • 3MOLEI local variables developmental work incorporates local climate specificities and user needs

3. L3MTO Implementation Lessons • Provides guidance for local users

4. Expertise in Metadata and Observations Local Customer Services and Feedback Expertise in Monitoring and Outlook Products Expertise in data QC, Homogenized Data L3MTO Implementation Lessons • Links NOAA National Centers (CPC, NCDC) with Local Offices and local users NOAA NESDIS NCDC NOAA NWS Regional And Local Offices NOAA NWS NCEP CPC

5. L3MTO Implementation Lessons • Meets scientific requirements (RISAs) • Verification (ARC + Forecast Evaluation Tool) • Consistency in components’ interpretation

6. L3MTO Implementation Lessons • Meets scientific requirements (RISAs) • Verification (ARC + Forecast Evaluation Tool) • Consistency in components’ interpretation • Help consists of: • Definitions and Interpretation Examples • Benefits and Limitations • Glossary

7. L3MTO Implementation Lessons • Serves user educational purposes: • Conveys visualization of probabilistic forecast • Supplements outlook with historical climate reference information

8. Total 465 L3MTO Implementation Lessons • Contains user interaction component: • continuous customer feedback

9. New Local Customer Needs • Climate Change: Information, Local impacts • Western Governors Association • California Water Resources • Alaska oil companies; wild life management • El Nino / La Nina: Information, Local impacts • Canaan Valley, West Virginia, 2004 Congressional Request • Water Resources Management • Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center (PEAC)

10. NWS Climate Change Guidance to Local Users • NWS mission does not include projections of climate change for the future decades: maximum lead of NWS climate outlooks is 12.5 months for 3 month average temperature or total precipitation • NWS local staff is able to provides different educational materials on local customers: • Fact sheets on Climate Change • Comprehensive summary on science of Global Climate Change • IPCC report facts • NWS is committed to provide the best quality climate observation that can be used in local climate change assessments. Besides the raw data, available local and regional climate changeproducts include: • Range of climate variability for climatology period and full records • Current rate of trends in climate variables • Impacts of other climate phenomena on trend adjusted climate variables • Other NOAA line offices that provide information on climate change: • National Climatic Data Center • Earth System Research Laboratory • National Oceanographic Data Center • Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

11. Rate of Local T/P Change • Scientific justification for the product: • NCDC Data: local trend is preserved, while artificial step changes have been removed • Methodology peer reviewed (Livezey, et al., 2007) • Predictability is currently being tested

12. Rate of Local T/P Change • Although using a simple linear model, hinge reduces sampling error by: • Anchoring line on previous to 1976 observations (Hinge) • Expressed in variable units per decade or per 30 years: • 60 years range 48°F to 58°F, current rate of rise 1.7°F/10 years

13. Rate of Change Regional versus Local

14. 1941,1958,1966, 1973,1983,1987, 1988,1992,1995, 1998 1941-2000 Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F) Eastern North Dakota Temperature (°F) 3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts • Based on composite analysis • On trend adjusted data • With significance test to avoid sampling error

15. 3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts • Forecast alters historical probabilities to forecast for Nino 3.4SST (Higgins,et al., 2004) HistoricForecast alters historical probabilities to forecast for Nino 3.4 SST (Higgins, et al., 2004al Probabilities Nino 3.4. Forecast CPC CURRENT ENSO FORECAST: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/sstcon34.txt NINO 3.4 INITIAL TIME 5 200X PROJECTION FRACTION Lead Mo BELOW NORMAL ABOVE JFM 7.5 0.080 0.393 0.527 FORECAST USING CURRENT CPC Nino 3.4: Example – ElNino with 7.5 month lead (forecast for JFM 2005):

16. 3MOLEI Development

17. 3MOLEI Beyond T / PNWS Local Offices Studies • CR Studies • Number of tornado days • Number of significant tornadoes in the north central U.S. • AR Studies • Min/Max temperature and precipitation • ER Studies • 3MOLEI methodology test • SR Studies • Extreme events in the Florida dry season and their relationship to ENSO, PNA, AO and NAO • Major extratropical (ET) storms • Severe weather (Tornadoes) • Excessive rainfall and flooding • Drought and wildfire • Severe cold outbreaks • WR Studies • US SW river flow exceedance of flooding stage • PR Studies • Sea level change • Extreme precipitation events

18. Summary • L3MTO implementation tested a new approach in developing local climate products • Needs of local users include information and impact on Climate Change and ENSO • 3MOLEI implementation will include auxiliary product: Rate of Local T/P Change • Prototype stage testing is expected in May 2008 • Experimental release is expected in September 2008 • Local staff has been trained to provide climate services on new local products • Local studies at WFO level raise local climate expertise and help to incorporate local user needs in identifying new climate variables for potential operational forecast products