Factors Affecting Voting Behavior: Long-term vs. Short-term Influences

1. Voting Behaviour

2. Voting Behaviour in the exam… • This year, any question on voting behaviour is likely to be very non-specific. • Essentially you will be asked about the factors that affect how people vote. • Try to remember 4-5 factors which affect how people vote. • Include HARD FACTS, analysis, evaluative comments as necessary.

3. Exam Task • Analyse the factors that affect voting behaviour – 12 marks • Short term factors are becoming more important that long term factors in relation to voting behaviour. Discuss – 20 marks

4. Voting Behaviour in the exam… • Questions might refer to LONG TERM or SHORT TERM factors affecting voting behaviour • Long-term factors have a long term influence on the way somebody votes, for example the social class a person belongs to. • Short-term factors have a short term influence and are prominent during the lead up to an election. For example, the influence of the media or leadership skills.

5. Short term factors are becoming more important that long term factors in relation to voting behaviour. Discuss. • The factors we will look at are below…try to work out which are long term factors and which are short term: • SOCIAL CLASS • GENDER • AGE • ETHNICITY • REGIONAL VOTING • LEADERSHIP AND IMAGE • THE MEDIA • ISSUE VOTING • RATIONAL CHOICE/TACTICAL VOTING

6. Short term factors are becoming more important that long term factors in relation to voting behaviour. Discuss. • The factors we will look at are below…try to work out which are long term factors and which are short term: • SOCIAL CLASS – long term • GENDER – long term • AGE – long term • ETHNICITY – long term • REGIONAL VOTING – long term • LEADERSHIP AND IMAGE – short term • THE MEDIA – short term • ISSUE VOTING – short term • RATIONAL CHOICE/TACTICAL VOTING – short term

7. Social Class • Social class has an influence on voting behaviour. The table below shows the British class system:

8. Social Class • Knowledge - A social class is generally taken to a set of individuals who share certain social characteristics, which collectively give them a similar attitude to life in general and to politics in particular. • ‘Class is the basis of British party politics- all else is embellishment and detail’ . • Traditionally Conservatives appeal more to the AB classes and Labour to the C1 and C2. • In the 2010 General Election the Conservatives got 26% of the AB professional vote, this was compared to Labour’s 15%. • Labour did best among the poorest (20% to Conservatives’ 18%). • Labour have their CORE VOTERS - they are working class and live in particular Labour ‘heartlands’. They read the Sun or the Daily Record. • The Conservatives know that their core vote lies with the private sector employed middle classes. They live in the suburban areas and usually read the Telegraph or The Times. • Analysis – There is still clearly a link between social class and voting behaviour. Those from less well off backgrounds are more likely to identify with the Labour Party whilst more affluent voters associate with the Conservatives.

9. Social Class • Knowledge – However, some have argued that the link between social class and voting behaviour is becoming weaker. • This is known as DEALIGNMENT. • An example of this would be a number of AB classes voting Labour. • The middle class has grown in size. All the major parties now compete for the middle ground. Tony Blair’s so-called “New Labour” Party attracted much more AB votes compared to previous Labour Governments and led to a Labour landslide victory in 1997. • In some constituencies, seats are not ‘safe’ and could go to either party. These are known as ‘swing’ or ‘marginal’ seats and they can dictate the outcome of the election. • These are seats with significant numbers of middle class or ‘new’ working class voters. They are not loyal to any single party. • They vote on the issues: NHS, EDUCATION, ECONOMY. • As a result, Labour has had to move with the times and appeal to all bases. • Analysis – Therefore although in the past social class was perhaps the most crucial indicator of voting behaviour, it is clear that it has recently become less significant as a result of dealignment.

10. Social Class • Analysis – Although it could be argued social class as an influence on voting has not gone away, it just has a more sophisticated effect. • Core voters will remain with their party on the whole as they are ideologically driven. They feel that their party best represents them, although they may not realise this. • HOWEVER, people are less defined by class nowadays and other factors influence on voting. The middle classes are more likely to switch their vote. • The new working classes do not have the same automatic loyalty to Labour. Many people in Scotland now see the SNP as a more “left-wing” party than Labour and so Labour has lost ground to the SNP in Scotland in recent elections. • Political parties are now ‘catch all parties’ seeking to build policies which will create a ‘big tent’ of voters across the social classes.

11. Social Class in the Referendum • Knowledge – The impact of social class was however hugely relevant in the recent Scottish independence referendum. Those in more deprived areas voted Yes whilst those in more affluent areas voted No. • The higher the life expectancy, the higher the No vote. • The higher the rate of unemployment, the higher the Yes vote. • Those areas where workers had seen higher wage growth in the past 10 years saw, such as Orkney and the Scottish Borders, were more likely to vote No than areas with lower wage growth, like Glasgow. • A young unemployed person living in Easterhouse, after all, has less of a stake in the system than members of the employed middle classes in Aberdeen or Edinburgh. • Analysis – The independence referendum shoed that perhaps social class is still a relevant indicator of voting behaviour with poorer areas more likely to vote yes compared to richer areas..

12. Analysis - Out of the 32 council areas in Scotland, four of them voted Yes. Each one of those were areas of high deprivation. Therefore people who voted yes saw it as a way to combat policies of austerity (cuts to public spending).

14. GENDER • Knowledge - Female vote has been up for grabs. • The middle class women- ‘School Gate Mum’ • They are working women who have demanding lives, balancing work and family responsibilities. • Either working class or a professional middle class person. • Not ideological and will care about the state of community and the country in general. • Cares about “quality of life” issues such as smoking bans, child benefits and childcare. • If women had just voted in the 2005election, Labour would have had a commons majority of 90 rather than 66. • Analysis – Gender influences the way people vote, therefore the political parties must have policies that will attract female voters - clearly their vote is pivotal in deciding the outcome of elections.

15. Age • Knowledge – Clearly, the table above shows that age and social class affect whether a person votes at all. Turnout is highest amongst older voters and those from higher social classes. • In the 2010 election, many older people voted Conservative. (Of all people aged 65+, 44% voted for Conservative. Only 31% Labour.) • Younger men (18-24) were more likely to vote Labour. • Although men aged 25-34 more voted Conservative whilst women 25-34 were more likely to vote Labour

16. Age • Analysis – Clearly age does affect voting behaviour. Young people are less likely to vote compared to older people and in 2010 it was evident that the Conservatives gained more older votes than Labour whilst Labour won the support of younger men.

17. Ethnicity • Knowledge – A person’s ethnic origin definitely impacts upon voting behaviour. • Black voters are significantly more likely to be Labour supporters. • So too are Asian voters, but not as strongly as blacks. • This could be back to the class relationship again, with blacks more likely to live in poorer inner city areas and have a low income. • The Conservatives have found it very hard to make inroads into the black Caribbean vote especially. • Baroness Warsi, who resigned from the Conservative Cabinet in July 2014 admitted as much. • In 2010, 38% of whites voted Conservative compared to 28% for Labour. • Whereas only 16% of non-whites voted Conservative compared to 60% for Labour. • Analysis - Like working class whites, many voters from a black Caribbean background don't feel culturally at ease with the Conservatives and more at home with Labour. Non-whites far more likely to vote Labour and this shows that ethnicity has a huge influence on voting behaviour, although it is closely linked to social class.

18. Regional Voting • Knowledge - There are clear regional variations in voting. North-south divide is evident, with Labour support highest in Scotland and Conservative support in the south of England. • The geographical divisions in voting behaviour can be explained in part by social class factors. • Labour’s safe seats tend to be in the inner city constituencies in cities like Glasgow and Liverpool. In contrast Conservative safe-seats tend to be in prosperous English constituencies (e.g. Kensington in London). • 2010 election result saw an increase in Labour support in Scotland - Scottish Prime Minister, Collectivist etc. • Conservatives currently only have 1 MP in Scotland (David Mundell MP for Dumfriesshire). • Analysis – Where people live in the UK clearly influences voting behaviour. Although Labour’s popularity in Britain fell as a whole which led to the 2010 Conservative/Lib Dem coalition, Labour still performed well in Scotland.

19. Regional Voting

20. Issue Voting • Knowledge - The banking crisis of 2008 and its impact on the UK and the world economy dominated the 2010 election. • David Cameron had to convince the electorate that the Conservatives could do a better job than Labour in running the economy. Partly blamed Labour’s “reckless spending” for Britain’s predicament. • Labour highlighted the inexperience of Cameron and Osborne and their millionaire background. The Conservatives strategy was to declare that another 5 years of Gordon Brown would be a disaster for the UK. • Cameron spoke of the incredible depression of five more years of Gordon Brown. • Managing the economy was the most crucial issue for voters. 36% of voters believed that no party had the best economic policy. • Immigration was also a big issue and will be a key issue in 2015. This could lead to electoral success for UKIP at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives.

21. Issue Voting • Analysis - These issues were seen as incredibly important and could indicate why the Conservatives did not achieve a majority. • Brown lost because he lacked personality and Cameron was seen as the leader with the most personality of the three leaders but not enough experience. • This shows that issues are hugely important but so is political image. • People also vote because of other issues such as immigration…the recent rise of UKIP is evidence of this.

22. Post-Referendum Scotland Issue Voting • Knowledge - After the referendum Labour’s popularity in Scotland has declined. • Many once Labour voters see SNP as a viable alternative. • Lord Ashcroft surveyed 16 of Scotland’s 59 seats, and put the SNP in front in 15 of them. • Many of these seats are long-time Labour heartlands where the party have majorities of 30-40 per cent (e.g. Glasgow East). • Ashcroft gives the SNP leads in almost all of these seats. • Only Glasgow North East, which Labour won by nearly 16,000 votes in 2010, is likely to remain in Labour’s hands. • In the 2015 general election, people that voted Yes in the referendum may turn away from Labour and this might lead to a surge in support for the SNP. • Analysis - Politics is changing and it is impossible to dictate the outcome of the General Election. In terms of voting behaviour in Scotland it could be argued that the Referendum is an issue which will have an impact on voting behaviour in 2015 (and 2016 SP election).

23. Leadership and Image • Knowledge – In 2010, Gordon Brown’s image was tarnished by the press and his leadership skills were questioned. • Negative image was reinforced during his meeting with 65 year old Labour supporter Gillian Duffy. • After a conversation with her he didn’t realise his microphone was still live - he called her a bigot (It was a Sky News microphone). • Beamed around the world, Tories had a field day and Brown was savaged in the papers the next day. • Analysis – Gordon Brown’s negative image and questionable leadership skills may in part of led to Labour’s loss in the 2010 election. • Knowledge - The polls are currently showing Ed Miliband to be quite an unpopular leader. • A YouGov poll in Nov 2014 showed that only 18% of people think he is doing a good job. • Some have highlighted that this is due to his image. He has had many unfortunate incidents with the media as they have reported him quite negatively at times.

24. Leadership and Image • Analysis - Only 6 per cent of people said having Mr Miliband as Labour leader made them more likely to support the party, while 40 per cent said it made them less likely to do so and this shows that leadership is hugely important when it comes to attracting voters.

25. Influence of the Media

26. Influence of the Media • Knowledge - In 2009 the Sun switched back to supporting the Conservatives. • They began to vilify Gordon Brown. • ‘He (Gordon Brown) ruined the country…We say David Cameron should be the next Prime Minister…Brown is dead.’ • On the 1990s and 2000s, Tony Blair knew the media had an influence. • Analysis - His determination to keep Rupert Murdoch on side tells us that the media must have some degree of influence.

27. Influence of the Media • Knowledge - The relationship between the media and voter is a complex one which should not be simplified. • For example, The Sunswitched its support from Conservativeto Labour in 1997. Labour won the General election. In 2010, The Sun supported the Conservatives. The Conservatives won the general election. Does this mean “it woz the Sun wot won it” or does it mean that The Sun, like everyone else, saw which way the tide was turning and jumped ship to support the winning team? • Analysis - Clearly newspaper support is important to politicians. Tony Blair would not have been so keen to have friendly relations with Rupert Murdoch (owner of BskyB and The Sun) if the media had no influence. Despite his denials, Gordon Brown was disappointed when The Sun declared its support for David Cameron. • It is clearly a very complex relationship between voters and the media. On the one hand it could be argued that newspapers provide a drip-drip effect and over a period of time voters are influenced. If the press did not matter then politicians would wouldn’t be so wary of the tabloid press.

29. The Televised Debates • Knowledge – In 2010, the 3 political parties staged a debate. • The first debate was a triumph for Nick Clegg. Brown was seen as too dour and Cameron too slick and nervous. • Within days, the Liberal Democrats projected share of the vote had risen by about 11 points. • Two opinions polls placed the Liberal Democrats ahead of both the Conservatives and Labour for the first time in over 100 years. • When it came to the General Election the Lib Dem popularity during the debates did not transfer to votes cast. • Here is a link to the first leadership debate in 2010: • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk5HvJmy_yg • Here is a short clip from the independence referendum: • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdC4Oj8Bhec • Analysis – It could be argued that the media does influence voting behaviour as Nick Clegg’s performance in the 2010 debates led to an increase in support for his party and ultimately led to the Lib Dems being part of the Government. David Cameron’s performance in the second debate also influenced voters.

30. 2015 Debates • Nicola Sturgeon showed her strength in the election debates in 2015. Did this play a factor in her parties success?

31. Spot the difference

32. Knowledge - There has been on-going debate between the academics about the extent of which any one paper can influence voters. • Professor of Politics at Strathclyde, John Curtis argues that there is no evidence to support this. • The Scottish Parliament elections illustrate this point. • The Sun was hostile to the SNP in 2007 but still formed a minority government. • However, it has been argued that if they had supported them then they would have gained more votes (note 2011) • When the Sun switched sides in 2011 the SNP gained a majority – coincidence? • Analysis – Newspapers can arguably have an influence as they have in the past backed parties which have gone on to have success, however it could also be argued that they sometimes “jump on the bandwagon” and back who the public back anyway – after all their objective is to sell papers…or is it????

33. Rupert Murdoch • Knowledge - Politicians were eager for his support as News International’s titles represented 42% of the media market. • Cameron tried to gain Murdoch’s support. • News International titles; The Sun, The Times, The Sunday Times, also Sky TV • Analysis – This shows that politicians and party leaders take the media very seriously, which suggests that the media does indeed have a strong influence on voting behaviour. There is concern over his control of the British media. Too powerful?

34. Rational Choice Theory and Tactical Voting • Knowledge - It could be argued that many voters are not influenced by external factors and make RATIONAL CHOICES about who to vote for. • They weigh up the policies of different parties and come to a reasoned decision on who to vote for. These voters are sometimes called “floating voters”. • Furthermore, some voters vote TACTICALLY. For example, they may support a particular party or candidate but know that they have no chance of being elected. Therefore, the vote for a party or candidate from another party in order to keep another party/candidate from winning a seat. • For example, a UKIP supporter in Scotland might vote Conservative in order to ensure that Labour or SNP don’t win.

35. Rational Choice Theory and Tactical Voting • Analysis – It could be argued that some voters are not influenced by other factors and make rational choices about who to vote for based on party policies – their choice of who to vote for may change from election to election.

36. Want to know more? • If you want to know more about this section, go online and access Modernity Scotland. • http://www.modernityscotland.co.uk/cfe-democracy-scotland/585-article-10-influences-on-voting