Voting Behaviour in the UK 1945-2005

1. Voting Behaviour in the UK 1945-2005 Part D: Recent General Elections : Some Further Information

2. Voting Behaviour in the UK: Part D: Recent UK General Elections: Some Further Information. • 1992 • 1997 • 2001 • 2005 In the remaining slides of the presentation I focus primarily on some of the specific political issues relating to recent General Elections. For each General Election you may wish to refer back to the social influences on voting behaviour and I include some links to previous slides for this purpose. Please note that several slides in this presentation are repeated in order to facilitate comparisons between 1997 and 2005

3. UK General Election 1992:[1] The Result {Electoral System benefits Conservative and Labour}

4. UK General Election 1992[2] Positional Issues and Valence Issues • When analysing the importance of party issues and policies psephologists have increasingly emphasised the distinction between positional issues and valence issues. • Parties differ on positional issues when they are located at different positions on the left-right spectrum ,for example in relation to taxation and public spending, privatisation/nationalisation and approaches to trade union reform. • However it has been argued that in the General Elections of 1992, 1997 2001 and 2005 positional differences between the main parties have declined and that the parties have attempted to attract votes especially on the basis that they will manage ,say, the economy, health, education or law and order more efficiently. That is: their appeal to the electorate is more in terms of valence issues than positional issues. • In this presentation information is provided on the importance of both positional issues and valence issues in the General Elections of 1992, 1997, 2001 and 2005.

5. UK General Election 1992 [3] • Most Polls suggested likelihood of Hung Parliament or even Labour Victory. • Reasons why Labour more popular in 1992 than in 1983 and 1987: economy in deep recession in 1992; Labour now perceived as more moderate and more united than in 1987 and especially than in 1983; Labour more popular than Conservatives on a wide range of salient positional issues, notably Health and Education • However, Major more popular than Kinnock • Importance of distinction between valence issues and positional issues. • Many blame UK recession either on world recession or on Thatcher: John Major rarely considered at fault for recession • Major abolishes poll tax. Is seen as more “caring” than Thatcher • Even though economy in recession voters still trust Conservatives more than Labour as best party to manage the economy. • Interest rate cuts in run up to General Election and tax cutting budget increase likelihood of egocentric pocket book voting in support of the Conservatives. Remember the differences between retrospective and prospective voting and egocentric and sociotropic voting.

6. UK General Election 1992 [4] Percentage Voter Preferences : Who would make the best PM?

7. UK General Election 1992 [5]% Feeling “a great deal of difference between the Con & Lab parties.” • 1964 48 • 1966 44 • 1970 33 • Feb 74 34 • Oct 74 40 • 1979 48 • 1983 88 • 1987 85 • 1992 56 • 1997 33 • 2001 17 • 2005 21 • Between 1987 and 1992 the percentage of respondents stating that there was a great deal of difference between the Conservative and Labour Parties declined significantly although at 56% it was still substantial. Perceived party differences declined further in subsequent General Elections and this could be expected to increase the impact of valence issues on voting behaviour.

8. UK General Election 1992 [6] • Labour’s Shadow Budget proposes increases in National Insurance Contributions and higher rates of income tax for the rich although Labour’s other tax changes would help the poor disproportionately. • Conservatives raise the fear of increased taxation and increased inflation under Labour…the so-called Double Whammy…although the meaning of this term was not initially well understood • The meaning of this term was not initially well understood but Chris Patten tried his best to explain it to the electorate • Labour’s equivocal attitude toward PR may have helped to undermine Labour’s overall image. Was it equivocal on other issues too? • Very negative anti- Labour campaigns in the Tory Tabloids in the months prior to the election campaign and especially during the final days of the campaign itself. • Short term impact of mass media on voting behaviour should not be overstated but this short term campaign reinforced the criticisms of Labour which the Tory tabloids had been making for generations: net impact possibly large but no-one knows how large . • Did the Sheffield Rally affect Labour’s ratings adversely? Not necessarily although Neil Kinnock believes that it did. What about John Major and his soapbox?

9. UK General Election of 1997 : The Result [1]{Electoral system benefits Labour significantly]

10. UK General Election 1997 [2]: The Conservatives • Exit from ERM Sept 1992 [Black/White Wednesday] undermines Conservative long standing reputation for economic competence. Gradual economic recovery 1992-1997 fails to translate into opinion poll recovery. Labour ahead in polls Sept 1992-May 1997 and subsequently. • John Major perceived as a weak leader leading a party disunited especially over Europe. Maatstricht treaty rebellions and 1995 Conservative leadership election symbolise Major’s weakness. • Tony Blair: ex Public School; ex Oxford; Lawyer; perceived as moderate, modern , dynamic and distant from “Old Labour” ; seen as a better potential PM than Major • Conservative Party further undermined by allegations of Sleaze: Cash for Questions; Ministerial sex scandals; apparent hypocrisy of Major’s “Back to Basics” campaign. Sleaze prominent in the 1st week of the actual campaign…harms the Conservatives • Elements of Conservative press critical of Conservative Government as insufficiently Eurosceptic and of Major’s generally weak leadership . Sun backs Blair.

11. UK General Election 1997 [3] Percentage Voter Preferences : who would make the best PM?

12. UK General Election 1997[4]: Labour • Likelihood that Labour would have won 1997 General Election under leadership of John Smith but with smaller majority? • More radical changes to the Labour party were considered necessary by so-called “modernisers” Blair, Brown, Mandelson. • Rebranding of Labour Party as “New Labour”. Meaning? • The electoral strategy: to retain the support of traditional Labour supporters while reaching out to the aspiring working class and middle class voters of “Middle Britain”. • Emphasis on courting the pro-Conservative press [especially the Sun but also the Daily Mail] to reduce the likelihood of the kind of press coverage which damaged Labour in 1992 • Emphasis on creating an image of economic competence and moderation :redrafting of Clause 4 of the Labour Party Constitution; announcement[1995] that the Trade unions could expect “fairness not favours” from a future Labour government; no changes to Conservative spending plans for two years; no increase in income tax rates for lifetime of Parliament.

13. UK General Election 1997[5]: Labour • Labour considered to have the better policies on the most salient issues of the campaign. A preference for Labour would have been expected on issues such as Health and education but Labour had also nullified the traditional Conservative advantage on law and order [by moving to the Right… Blair and “Tough on crime; tough on the causes of crime] and on the economy. • The Electorate was as yet not specially conscious of any rifts between Blair and Brown and the Labour Party was perceived as more united than the Conservatives. • Labour’s overall image was better than that of the Conservatives on a wide range of criteria.

14. UK General Election 1997 [6] Party Ratings on Salient Campaign Issues: April 1997 [IPSOS MORI]

15. UK General Election 1997: [7 ] Party Images 1997-2005

16. Uk General Election 1997 [8] • Click here for the relevant Ipsos Mori data on the social influences on voting behaviour in 1997 • Click here for data from IPSOS MORI on relationships between social class and voting behaviour 1974- 2005. • But remember the difficulties of measuring social class and the extent of class dealignment. • How has class dealignment been explained?

17. UKGeneral Election of 2001{1] The Result : Electoral system again favours Labour significantly.

18. UK General Election of 2001: [2] • Large Labour victory seems almost inevitable for several reasons.. • Consistent opinion poll lead for Labour 1997-2001 other than at time of fuel crisis Sept 2000. However Labour’s local, European and Devolved Assembly election results were not especially good. • Economy performing well: falling unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates, steady economic growth. • Labour with Gordon Brown as Chancellor are seen as best able to manage economy : an important valence issue. • Voters prefer Tony Blair to William Hague as future Prime Minister by a large margin. • Labour policies preferred to Conservative Policies on most of the salient positional issues. • Labour’s overall image rated more highly than the Conservatives’ overall image. • Mass Media support for Labour much the same as in 1997 but mass media cynicism with New Labour gradually increasing.

19. UK General Election 2001: [3] • However Labour did experience some problems 1997-2001 which might have affected its electoral prospects adversely. • Bernie Ecclestone Affair quickly undermines Labour’s claims that it will end political sleaze. • Labour acquires reputation for excessive political “spin”. • Peter Mandelson obliged to resign from Cabinet-twice. • Increasing evidence of dissension between Blair and Brown but Labour nevertheless able to maintain outward image of unity to some extent • Hopes/ Expectations that public services would be quickly improved appear to be frustrated. However some voters continue to blame the Tories for the perceived poor state of the public services and recognise that improvement will take time. • University tuition fees unpopular .Millennium Dome; a waste of money? Problems when Ken Livingstone stands as Independent in London Mayor elections ..and wins . Tony Blair heckled at Women’s Institute Conference. • Fears that Labour likely to lose support among its core working class voters as it seems more interested in retaining the support of newly acquired middle class supporters especially in marginal constituencies. • However none of these factors appear sufficient to deny Labour a substantial General Election victory. • We appear to be in the era of “TEFLON TONY”.

20. UK General Election 2001 :[4] • It is often claimed that William Hague’s policy initiatives were influenced primarily by social liberalism and One Nation Conservatism between 1997 and 1999 but much more by social authoritarianism and Euroscepticism from 1999 to 2001. • However it has also been argued for example by P.Cowley and S, Quayle that William Hague was influenced by conflicting aspects of Conservative ideology throughout his leadership of the Conservative Party. • Thus between 1997 and 1999 Hague demonstrated liberal attitudes on ethnic issues and gay rights combined with Euroscepticism which led him to rule out membership of the Euro during the lifetime of two Parliaments. • Between 1999 and 2001 Hague campaigned against the repeal of Section 28, emphasised the Conservatives’ commitment to marriage, highlighted the alleged problems caused by increasing numbers of asylum seekers and supported a tougher approach to law and order. However he also reiterated a commitment to One Nation Conservatism and proposed policies to reinvigorate the inner cities.

21. UK General Election 2001:[5] • William Hague was unable to establish himself as a credible alternative Prime Minister although he did often outperform Tony Blair at PMQT. • The New Labour government proved difficult to attack because orthodox Conservative criticisms were no longer appropriate : New Labour was not the creature of the trade unions and did not support high rates of income taxation although other taxes did rise and the proportion of total taxation to GDP rose from 35% to 37% • By 2001 the Conservative Party was still perhaps divided in its attitudes toward the Thatcher legacy. • During the General Election it faced the dilemma that if it was to challenge Labour it would have to challenge Labour on issues such as Health and Education but even the mention of these issues might increase Labour’s popularity. • Instead it has been suggested that the Conservatives perhaps gave too much emphasis to issues such as Europe, Immigration and Law and Order which were not especially salient issues to potentially floating voters even though many voters did actually agree with Conservative policies on these issues. • The Conservatives’ emphasis on these issues may have created the impression that the Conservatives themselves had decided that they could not win and were simply trying to retain their core vote and prevent an even greater General Election defeat.

22. UK General Election 2001 :[6] • The following slides demonstrate that Tony Blair had been seen as potentially a more effective PM than John Major in the 1997 General Election Campaign. • He was also preferred to William Hague in 2001 by an even larger margin. • Labour was seen as more competent than the Conservatives in the management of the economy. Its perceived economic competence may have encouraged voters to believe that it was also more competent in relation to other valence issues such as the management of the NHS. • Labour was considered to have the best policies on most of the salient positional issues of the Campaign. • Labour’s image was better than the Conservatives’ image based upon several important criteria. • However there was also some dissatisfaction with Labour which contributed to the low turnout and suggested that many voted Labour because of their negative evaluations of the Conservatives rather than their positive evaluations of Labour.

23. UK General Election 2001 [7] Percentage Voter Preferences as best PM

24. UK General Election 2001: [8]: Party Images 1997-2005 • Labour’s overall image did deteriorate between 1997 and 2001 but on most image criteria it was still ahead of the Conservatives. • Note that Labour’s image would deteriorate further by 2005 • See next slide

25. UK General Election 2001: [9]: Party Images 1997-2005

26. UK General Election 2001:[10]: Issues and Policies • The following data indicate that Labour had the preferred policies on most salient issues in 2001. • However their ratings were generally lower than in 1997 on most salient issues.

27. UK General Election 2001 [11] Party Ratings on Salient Campaign Issues: Feb 2001 [IPSOS MORI] 1997 data in brackets

28. UK General Election of 2005: The Result [1][Electoral System again favours Labour significantly]

29. UK General Election 2005[2] • Click here for MORI Voting and Social Characteristics in 2005 • Compare social class and voting behaviour in 1997, 2001 and 2005

30. Uk General Election 2005[3]The Importance of Party Policies Salient Positional Issues • It is difficult to determine the exact impact of party policies on voting behaviour. Why? • However according to poll data from all polling organisations Labour was perceived as having the better policies on a wide range of salient positional issues although its lead over the Conservatives on salient issues was in most cases smaller than in 1997 and 2001. • Note that by 2005 Asylum Seekers, Immigration, Law and Order and fears of terrorism had become more salient issues a trend that perhaps could be expected to help the Conservative Party. • Click here for a link to the IPSOS MORI Issue Index which charts the changes in saliency of political issues

31. UK General Election 2005 [4] :Party Ratings on Salient Campaign Issues: 2005

32. General Election 2005[5] The Importance of Party Policies [contd.] • As has already been mentioned when analysing the importance of party issues and policies psephologists have increasingly emphasised the distinction between positional issues and valence issues. • Parties differ on positional issues when they are located at different positions on the left-right spectrum ,for example in relation to taxation and public spending, privatisation/nationalisation and approaches to trade union reform. • However it has been argued that in the General Elections of 2001 and 2005 positional differences between the main parties have declined and that the parties have attempted to attract votes on the basis that they will manage ,say, the economy, health, education or law and order more efficiently. That is: their appeal to the electorate is more in terms of valence issues than positional issues. • During the 2005 Campaign Gordon Brown’s profile was increased in an attempt to focus especially on Labour’s relative economic competence. • However the Iraq War may well have undermined Tony Blair’s and the Labour Government’ s reputation for overall governing competence .

33. General Election 2005[6]:Iraq • Opinion poll data show Iraq as the 9th/10th/11th most salient issue influencing voting behaviour : i.e. as relatively unimportant, apparently. • However, likelihood that Iraq may have been a key factor causing shifts from Labour to Lib Dem and/or Labour abstentions which resulted in several Lib Dem and Conservative gains. • Labour will have lost support especially in constituencies with high concentrations of Muslim voters. • Various indirect effects of the Iraq War: helping to undermine trust in Tony Blair; helping to create an impression of disunity in the Labour party via backbench revolt and resignations of Robin Cook , Claire Short and John Denham; preventing the Labour government from focussing sufficiently on domestic policies. • The significance of these indirect effects may have increased because the mass media emphasised Iraq during the election campaign which prevented Labour from focussing on its preferred issues: Health, Education and the Economy. • However the Tories had little to gain because they too had supported the war and when Howard called Blair a liar some voters may have seen this as hypocritical, a claim which Howard of course denied.

34. UK General Election 2005 [7] Effect Muslim vote 2005

35. UK General Election 2005[8]Who would make the best PM? • According to MORI data which are confirmed in other opinion polls, respondents have rated Tony Blair more highly as a potential PM than John Major, William Hague, Ian Duncan Smith and Michael Howard respectively but Blair’s relative ratings had declined significantly by 2005.

36. UK General Election 2005 [9] Percentage Voter Preferences as best PM

37. UK General Election 2005[10]Party Images 1997-2005 • IPSOS MORI data suggest that Labour’s “image ratings” declined significantly by 2005. However these ratings were still higher than those of the Conservative party even though the gap had narrowed to some extent. • How would you explain these trends?

38. UK General Election 2005 [11]: Party Images 1997-2005

39. UK General Election 2005 [12]: Conclusions • In 2005 Labour won again but with a much smaller overall majority than in 1997 and 2001. • Labour policies were more popular than Conservative policies on most but not all of the most salient issues. • Labour’s image, according to most criteria, was more attractive than the Conservative image. • Voters were more likely to rate Tony Blair as the best potential PM than to rate Michael Howard as the best potential PM. • However in terms of policies, image and leadership, the Labour lead over the Conservatives was smaller than it had been in 1997 and 2001. • Click here for BBC coverage of The Blair Years • Click here for detailed BBC Timeline on the Blair Years • Click here for BBC’s Huw Edwards Summary of The Blair Years • Click here for BBC Coverage of Rory Bremner on Blair and Brown • Click here for a Guardian interactive graphic on the declining popularity of Tony Blair. • Click here for a Guardian article on the current [2010]condition of the Labour Party

40. Voting Behaviour in the UK : Final Assignment • Predict the result of the next General Election in terms of seats won, and vote shares and turnout. • What do you expect to happen to social patterns of voting behaviour in the next General Election? • Write a paragraph on each model of voting behaviour explaining how each model might help to explain the General Election 2010 result. • Collect explanations of the 2010 General Election result as they appear in the mass media and in magazines such as Sociology Review and Politics Review. • THE END