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Upper Stillwater Reservoir Firm Yield Forecasting Weston Bellon

This study forecasts the increased firm yield of Upper Stillwater Reservoir in light of population growth and potential climate change impacts. Using USGS climate data and SNOTEL data, projections indicate rising firm yield over time. Despite uncertainties, Upper Stillwater's water supply appears secure.

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Upper Stillwater Reservoir Firm Yield Forecasting Weston Bellon

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  1. Upper Stillwater Reservoir Firm Yield ForecastingWeston Bellon OUTLINE: Introduction Methods Results conclusions

  2. Upper Stillwater Reservoir • Provides water to Utah County • 177% Increase in Population by 2065 • Climate change could decrease Firm Yield

  3. Data Inputs • USGS Climate Projection Data • Precipitation, Evapotranspiration, Temperature • Large grid size • Current/recent conditions from SNOTEL • To calibrate climate projection data

  4. Data Calibration • Average SNOTEL and Projection data compared • IDW interpolation used for SNOTEL data • Ratio developed and applied

  5. Firm Yield Projection Calculations • Precipitation – Evapotranspiration = Flow to the Reservoir • Mass Balance, Sequent Peak Analysis • Performed in five year increments • Iterative yield determination

  6. Results • Firm yield will increase over time. • Firm yield will become more variable.

  7. Conclusion • Upper Stillwater Firm Yield not in jeopardy • Colorado River Basin precipitation debate • Limited to available data • Other data sources should be examined

  8. Questions?

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