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Activities on monitoring and modelling of POPs in 2014 and future work

Activities on monitoring and modelling of POPs in 2014 and future work. Victor Shatalov on behalf of MSC-E and CCC. EMEP activities on POPs in 2014. Emission data for modelling (CIEP, MSC-E) Monitoring of POPs within EMEP (CCC) Operational modelling within the EMEP region (MSC-E)

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Activities on monitoring and modelling of POPs in 2014 and future work

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  1. Activities on monitoring and modelling of POPs in 2014 and future work Victor Shatalov on behalf of MSC-E and CCC

  2. EMEP activities on POPs in 2014 • Emission data for modelling (CIEP, MSC-E) • Monitoring of POPs within EMEP (CCC) • Operational modelling within the EMEP region (MSC-E) • Assessment of long-term changes of POP pollution (1990 – 2012) • Evaluation of transboundary transport in 2012 • Evaluation of long-term trends of contamination of the EMEP region • Research and development: • Assessment of the role of secondary emissions and non-EMEP emission sources in POP pollution on the base of the GLEMOS model • Pilot study on PCDD/F contamination on the global scale with the use of emission inventory obtained under the Stockholm Convention • Refinement of model parameterization • Co-operation with national experts, international organizations and programmes • Co-operation with ICP Vegetation • Co-operation with international conventions and programmes (UNEP, HELCOM, …) • Preparation of boundary data for national modelling in Italy • Further development of MSC-E web-site (in English and in Russian) The work on evaluation of POP contamination is performed in collaboration with Parties, Convention bodies (WGE, TFMM, TFEIP, TFHTAP, ICPs) and international organizations (Stockholm Convention, HELCOM, AMAP) All the information is presented in MSC-E and CCC reports and at the web-site www.msceast.org including special web-page in Russian for EECCA countries.

  3. Emission data for modelling • EMEP official emissions data (Parties, CEIP): • Time-series of national emission totals (1990 – 2012, Parties, annually) • Gridded sectoral emissions (Parties, once in five years) • Emissions from Large Point Sources (Parties, once in five years) • Gridded emissions for the latest reported year (2012, CEIP, annually) • Additional emissions data for modelling (MSC-E): • Time-series of gridded annual emissions for 1990-2012 or larger (all) • Congener composition of emissions (PCDD/Fs – 17 congeners, PCBs) • Historical emissions of PCDD/Fs, HCB and PCB-153 (up to 1990) • Intra-annual variations of emissions (all) • Emissions to other environmental compartments (PCDD/Fs, HCB) • Gridded emissions on a global scale (PCDD/Fs, HCB, PCB-153)

  4. Monitoring of POPs within EMEP Coverage of the EMEP domain by measurements is still incomplete. Measurement network for POPs in 2002 and 2012 Not all considered POPs (PAHs, HCB, PCBs) are measured at the shown monitoring sites. No measurements of PCDD/F at the EMEP monitoring network.

  5. Supplementary measurement data Monitoring POP passive sampling programs Other pollutants: • European measurement database AirBase • Regional POP networks (EMEP, AMAP, IADN, …) • Global and regional POP monitoring programs(GAPS, MONET, PNA COP, …) available through GMP of Stockholm Convention Measurements of PCDD/Fs in air in remote and rural areas(2002-2011; compiled by MSC-E): • Europe: Italy,Denmark, France, Germany, the UK, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, Spain [Castro-Jimenez et al., 2012;…] • North America: the USA, Canada [Lorber et al., 2013;…] • Southeast Asia: Taiwan, China, Japan, South Korea [Chi et al., 2013;…] Detailed references on PCDD/F measurements used in the EMEP reports [Shatalov et al., 2013; Gusev et al., 2014]

  6. Operational activities PCB-153, 1990 PCB-153, 2012 PAHs, 1990 PAHs, 2012 PCDD/Fs, 2012 PCDD/Fs, 1990 HCB, 2012 HCB, 1990 Evaluation of pollution changes from 1990 to 2012 Comparison of spatial distribution of POP air concentrations in 1990 and 2012 Relative changes of POP air concentrations in the entire EMEP domainfrom 1990 to 2012

  7. Reduction of POP pollution in the EMEP countries from 1990 to 2012, PCDD/Fs (total toxicity) Operational activities Large reduction (up to 90%) Country Reduction 1990 – 2012 the Netherlands 93% Belgium 90% the UK 75% … … Turkey 9% Kyrgyzstan 2% 2012 1990 Small reduction (2% – 30%) Reduction of PCDD/F air concentrations in three groups of the EMEP countriesfrom 1990 to 2012 EU28

  8. Operational activities Reduction of PAH air concentrations in three groups of the EMEP countriesfrom 1990 to 2012 1990 2012 Country Reduction 1990 – 2012 the UK 90% Germany 70% … … Portugal – 3% Azerbaijan – 5% Kyrgyzstan – 22% Small reduction or even increase increase Negative values mean increase (2% – 20%) Reduction of POP pollution in the EMEP countries from 1990 to 2012, 4 indicator PAHs

  9. Operational activities Reduction dynamics of POP pollution in the EMEP countries Exemplified by B[a]P Considered period: from 1990 to 2010 (to be performed each 5 years?) Reduction rates are not homogeneous in time Bi-exponential trends were applied (see MSC-E Technical Report, 2014) Discussed at TFMM meeting in Bologna, Italy, April 2014

  10. Reduction dynamics of POP pollution: seasonal variations Operational activities Averaged trend does not show maximum values Calculated B[a]P air concentrations in the Czech Republic, 1990 – 2010, monthly means Methodology of trend analysis taking into account seasonal variations should be elaborated. To be discussed at the forthcoming TFMM workshop (November 2014) Pronounced seasonal variations are seen

  11. Reduction of POP pollution in the EMEP countries from 1990 to 2012, PCB-153 and HCB Operational activities Main factors for PCBs and HCB PCB-153 Reduction: 1990 • PCB-153 – 80% • HCB – 90% Reasons of reduction: • National emissions • Transboundary transport • Non-EMEP sources • Secondary sources 2012

  12. Evaluation of contamination at the global scale Research and development EMEP domain PCDD/Fs PCB-153 HCB On the basis of global calculations evaluation of the contributions of non-EMEP sources and secondary emissions to the pollution by contaminants with high transport distance was done (in collaboration with TFHTAP)

  13. Contributions of various source categories to the contamination of the EMEP region in 2012 Research and development Transboundary transport within EMEP Depositions to France, g TEQ/y Depositions from France, g TEQ/y total - 590 g TEQ/y total 335 g TEQ/y Other, 64.9, Non-EMEP, 19% 177.7, 30% France, 220.8, United Kingdom, 37% 9.1, 3% Russian Federation, 9.8, 3% Belgium, 10.0, 3% United Kingdom, Other, 87.4, 31.3, 5% 15% France, 220.8, Germany, 20.9, 66% Italy, 29.0, 5% 6% Belgium, 15.7, Spain, 27.7, 5% EMEP 3% anthropogenic EMEP non-EMEP emissions EMEP anthropogenic emissions 61% non-EMEP anthropogenic emissions 19% emissions emissions 1% EMEP 9% 23% secondary emissions non-EMEP 75% EMEP emissions secondary EMEP 24% emissions secondary 68% emissions 20% Evaluation of contributions of EMEP anthropogenic, secondary and non-EMEP emissions to the contamination of the EMEP region PCB-153 PCDD/Fs HCB Discussed at TFMM meeting in Bologna, Italy in April 2014

  14. Research and development Pilot study on PCDD/Fs Challenges: • Underestimationof observed PCDD/F pollution levels in the EMEP countries by modelling results Major reasons: • Incompleteness of regional and global inventories of anthropogenic PCDD/F emissions • Uncertainties of estimates of secondary emissions and behaviour in media • Lack of regular monitoring of atmospheric concentrations Aim of the study: • Evaluate global scale transport and pollution levels using estimates of global PCDD/F emissions based on the UNEP SC inventory

  15. Pilot study on PCDD/Fs Water, 4.3 Air, 74.3 Soil, 9.7 Scenario of global PCDD/F emissions UNEP SC inventory of PCDD/F emissions[Fiedler, 2007; Fiedler et al., 2012]: • is based on the UNEP Standardized Dioxins Toolkit • contains PCDD/F emission totals for 68 countries over the globe (including 15 EMEP countries) • estimates of releases to air, soil and water Emissions of PCDD/Fs to the environmental media evaluated on the basis of UNEP SC inventory, kg TEQ/yr

  16. Pilot study on PCDD/Fs Scenario of global PCDD/F emissions UNEP SC data for 68 countries are complemented by estimates of emissions for other countries using regression relationship between annual PCDD/F releases and GDP (Gross Domestic Product): Release = A × (GDP/Pers) – B , similar to [Cao et al., 2013] A and B are defined by linear regression between Log(Release) and Log(GDP/Pers). Spatial distribution of annual PCDD/F emission is based on population density (1°x1°) Annual emissions to air (ng TEQ/m2/yr) Annual emissions to soil (ng TEQ/m2/yr)

  17. Pilot study on PCDD/Fs Official EMEP emissions vs scenario based on the UNEP SC inventory For the majority of the EMEP countries officially reported PCDD/F emissions are lower than estimates of the experimental scenario based on the UNEP SC inventory

  18. Pilot study on PCDD/Fs Model simulations and results • Global scale model runs with 1°x1° resolution (reference year 2012) • Spin-up model simulations for several decades to obtain initial conditions • Modelling is carried out with the emissions of total toxicity of 17 2,3,7,8-substituted (toxic) PCDD/F congeners to air and soil Modelled annual mean PCDD/F air concentrations, fg I-TEQ/m3/yr Modelled annual mean PCDD/F concentrations in soil, ng I-TEQ/kg

  19. Pilot study on PCDD/Fs EMEP domain Underestimation 4.8 times; Correlation = 0.5 Underestimation 1.5 times Correlation = 0.5 Underestimation 1.9 times Correlation = 0.8 Evaluation of model results against measurements Annual mean modelled and observed PCDD/F air concentrations The US PCDD/F emission (g I-TEQ/yr): - USEPA emissions: 1352 - Extrapolation from SC data: 4018 - [Zhang et al., 2009,AE]: 3425

  20. Pilot study on PCDD/Fs Modelling with official EMEP emissions and scenario based on the UNEP SC inventory (EMEP domain) Model predictions vs measurements for the EMEP domain factor of 2 factor of 5 Emission scenario based on the UNEP SC data – reasonable agreement Official emissions reported by the EMEP countries – underestimation

  21. Pilot study on PCDD/Fs Concluding remarks • Experimental modelling with global emissions based on the UNEP SC inventory of PCDD/F releases provides reasonable agreement between model predictions and measurements • For a number of countries emissions calculated on the basis of UNEP SC inventory exceed those based on the EMEP official emission data • Secondary emissions and non-EMEP emission sources can noticeably contribute to pollution of EMEP countries • Further progress requires refinement of PCDD/F emissions for EMEP domain and other regions and developing of global historical emissions • Closer co-operation between CLRTAP and UNEP SC with respect to compilation of emissions and assessment of pollution is of importance

  22. Co-operation 34th International Symposium on Halogenated Persistent Organic Pollutants EMEP contribution • More that 650 abstracts from about 40 countries • Scientific program: • Sources, formation, transport and fate, monitoring of levels in the environment, trends, human exposure, and risk assessment for new and legacy POPs • Special session: • 10th anniversary of the Stockholm Conventions on POPs • Long-term trends in observed concentrations of POPs: contribution of EMEP to the Global Monitoring Plan of the SC (CCC) • Pilot modelling of PCDD/F transport and fate on global scale and within the EMEP region (MSC-E)

  23. Co-operation Co-operation between CLRTAP and UNEP SC • There is substantial potential for collaboration: listing of chemicals,compilation of emissions, assessment of pollution levels, trends,… • SC Secretariat at the 37th EMEP SB session (2013): proposal to enhance co-operation of SC with EMEP on air monitoring, emission inventories and long-range transport modelling of POPs • Further step in this direction: Memorandum of Understanding to provide basis for closer co-operation and exchange of information [Geneva, September 2013]

  24. Co-operation Long-term cooperation with HELCOM Atmospheric input of HMs and POPs to Baltic Sea Annual PCDD/F deposition in 2011, ng TEQ/m2/year Changes of Cd, Pb, Hg, and PCDD/F deposition to the Baltic Sea from 1990 to 2011

  25. Co-operation Co-operation with ICP Vegetation Correlation coefficients between calculated deposition and concentrations in mosses Modelled annual deposition of B[a]P and measurements of B[a]P concentrations in mosses in 2010 Sub-grid variations can affect the comparison. Modelling with finer spatial resolution is required Discussed at ICP Vegetation Task Force, Paris, January 2014

  26. Co-operation with countries Co-operation In the framework of co-operation with the Italian national agency (ENEA), boundary conditions for modelling of 4 PAHs for 2010 by the national modelling system MINNI were prepared. Agreed area Annual mean air concentrations of B[a]P in 2010 in the EMEP domain and in the agreed area, ng/m3

  27. Modelling results Emissions data Measurement data Assessment of effects Dissemination of EMEP information MSC-E web site: www.msceast.org

  28. Information for EECCA countries in Russian

  29. MSC-E work-plan elements in 2015 Operational activities • Evaluate POP contamination levels and transboundary transport in the EMEP region for 2013, including ecosystem-dependent deposition (1.3.2) • Estimate contamination trends (1.1.4) • Develop near real time concentrations and deposition data for 2014 (1.3.9) Research and development • Test regional version of GLEMOS in long-lat grid including SR relationships (1.3.4) • Further estimate intercontinental transport and contributions of secondary sources to POP pollution in the EMEP domain (1.3.6, 1.6.2) • Refine model description of the interaction between POPs and atmospheric aerosol (1.3.8 c) • Investigate the influence of climate change on secondary emissions of POPs (1.3.8 d) Co-operation and dissemination of information (1.1.7, 1.3.9, 1.6.2, 1.6.3, 4.3)

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