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Explore strategies and progress evaluation for regional haze reduction in the Saguaro Wilderness Area, Arizona. Learn about reasonable progress goals and key factors for achieving natural conditions by 2064. Dive into species-based approaches and demonstration protocols for effective progress monitoring. Discover trends, challenges, and solutions for ensuring visibility and air quality improvement.
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Reasonable Progress Demonstration Case Studyfor Saguaro Wilderness Area Arizona Regional Haze Stakeholder Meeting January 22, 2007
Saguaro Wilderness Area Saguaro West (SAWE) Saguaro NM (SAGU) Source: VIEWS website http://vista.cira.colostate.edu Source: WRAP Causes of Haze Website (http://coha.dri.edu)
SAGU Baseline Extinction Budget Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/
SAWE Baseline Extinction Budget Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition
20% Best Day Compositionat SAWE and SAGU Source: Chart made from two spreadsheets posted at: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition
20% Worst Day Compositionat SAWE and SAGU Source: Chart made from two spreadsheets posted at: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition
Reasonable Progress Under the Federal Regional Haze Rule • States set reasonable progress goals based on: • Consideration of 4 statutory factors • Costs • Time necessary for compliance • Energy and non-air quality environmental impacts • Remaining useful life of potentially affected sources • The uniform rate of progress (measured in deciviews) necessary to attain natural conditions by 2064 • States adopt long-term strategies to achieve these goals • States implement BART
Uniform Rate of Progress (worst days) Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Trends
Uniform Rate of Progress (worst days) Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Trends
Uniform Rate of Progress • Essentially a 20% reduction in manmade haze (dv) per planning period (10 years) • Heavily dependent on: • Assumptions regarding future natural conditions • Contribution of non-WRAP sources to baseline • Representativeness of 2000-04 baseline • 24 of the 77 Class I sites have no more than 3 years of data in baseline period • These issues more accute in the West • Haze rule promulgated in 1999
A Species-Based Approach to RP • Isolate some of the URP issues previously noted • Species differ significantly from one another in their: • Contribution to visibility impairment • Spatial and seasonal distributions • Source types • Contribution from natrual and international sources • Emissions data quality • Atmospheric science quality • Tools available for assessment and projection
Draft WRAP Protocol for Demonstrating Reasonable Progress • For each site and species … • Estimate progress expected from Base Case + BART in 2018 • Determine any other LTSs which may be reasonable for that pollutant and recalculate 2018 species concentration • Add up improvements from all species into dv • This becomes the RPG for the 20% worst days • Explain why this is less than URP • Large international and natural contributions, large uncertainties in dust inventory preclude action, etc.
Determine URP for a species Is Base+BART projection better than URP? Is WRAP Anthro reduction > 20%? N N Evaluate emission & air quality trends more closely Y Y Interstate coop key. Identify LTSs for these sources considering the 4 RPG and other factors identified in the RHR. Are there any important uncontrolled or undercontrolled sources? Are there any important uncontrolled sources? Y Y Adopt, commit to adopt, or commit to further evaluation. N* N Determine reductions at C1A. Repeat for other species. Add up all species reductions to get a RPG for worst days. Eplain why it’s less than default URP but still reasonable. Set goal for best days. * Note, if no LTS beyond BART is developed, then the 4 RPG factors are inherently taken into account via BART.
SAGU Species Trendsand URP Glidepaths (Worst Days) Peak day for OC on 10/30/03. Peak day for CM on May 31, 2003.
SAWE Species Trendsand URP Glidepaths (Worst Days) Peak day for OC on 10/30/03. Peak day for CM on May 31, 2003.
SAGU Upwind Residence TimeOn 20% Wost Visibility Days (2000-04) Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potential
NO3 • Is the Base+BART projection better than URP? • Yes: CMAQ base case projections for 2018 show a 20% reduction in extinction due to NO3. • Results do not yet include BART • Results not yet available on TSS • Precise projection method not yet finalized • WRAP anthro reduction is 28% • See PSAT results on next slide
NO3 • Are there any important uncontrolled upwind sources? • Use TSS to examine inventory upwind • PSAT results • PMF results • WEP results • Emission inventories
SAGU NO3 PSAT Results2002 and 2018 base cases Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> SOx/NOx Tracer
SAWE NO3 PSAT Results2002 and 2018 base cases Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> SOx/NOx Tracer
Source: Chart made after manipulation of data posted on WRAP Causes of Hase Website: http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/tools_PMFModeling.html
SAGU NO3 WEP Results (2000-04) Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAWE NO3 WEP Results (2000-04) Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
Major NOx Sources in the 2018 Arizona Point Source Pivot Table Source: WRAP website: Emissions Forum pivot tables: http://www.wrapair.org/forums/ssjf/pivot.html
Most Likely NOx Sources Significantly Contributing to NO3 at SAGU On the 20% Worst Visibility Days
SO4 • Is the Base+BART projection better than URP? • No: CMAQ base case projections for 2018 show only a 6% reduction in extinction due to SO4. • Sources outside the WRAP have a large influence • Results not yet available on TSS • Is WRAP anthro reduction > 20%? • No: PSAT apportionment shows only a 9% reduction from WRAP anthro SO2 sources • BART not fully included yet • Need to correct (reduce) 2018 Hayden emissions
SO4 • Are there any important uncontrolled or undercontrolled upwind sources? • Use TSS to examine inventory upwind • PSAT results • PMF results • WEP results • Emission inventories
SAGU SO4 PSAT Results2002 and 2018 base cases Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> SOx/NOx Tracer
SAWE SO4 PSAT Results2002 and 2018 base cases Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> SOx/NOx Tracer
Source: Chart made after manipulation of data posted on WRAP Causes of Hase Website: http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/tools_PMFModeling.html
SAGU SO4 WEP Results (2000-04) Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAWE SO4 WEP Results (2000-04) Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
Changes In Point and Area Source SO2 Emissions In AZ Area Source Changes
Most Likely SO2 Sources Significantly Contributing to SO4 at SAGU On the 20% Worst Visibility Days
SAGU OC CMAQ Results2002 and 2018 base cases AORGA Change = +6% (secondary anthropogenic OC) AORGB Change = +1% (secondary biogenic OC, inc. smoke) AORGPA Change = -1% (primary OC, inc. smoke) Source: WRAP Technical Support System
SAWE OC CMAQ Results2002 and 2018 base cases AORGA Change = 0% (secondary anthropogenic OC) AORGB Change = +2% (secondary biogenic OC, inc. smoke) AORGPA Change = -1% (primary OC, inc. smoke) Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Organic Aerosol Tracer
Source: Chart made after manipulation of data posted on WRAP Causes of Hase Website: http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/tools_PMFModeling.html
SAGU OC WEP Results (2000-04) Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAWE OC WEP Results (2000-04) Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAGU CM WEP Results (2000-04) Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital
SAWE CM WEP Results (2000-04) Source: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Area of Interest >> Weighted Emission Potenital