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Norwegian Emission projections

Norwegian Emission projections. Facts and experiences. Outline. Methologies and models Authorities involved Main characteristics and challenges LUCF projections (Reporting issues). Methodology in use. CO2 projections are based on a macroeconomic model called MSG

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Norwegian Emission projections

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  1. Norwegian Emission projections Facts and experiences

  2. Outline • Methologies and models • Authorities involved • Main characteristics and challenges • LUCF projections • (Reporting issues)

  3. Methodology in use • CO2 projections are based on a macroeconomic model called MSG • An emission calculation model is included in MSG • Projections for non- CO2 emissions are based on information from concerned sectors and consistent with macroeconomic projections • Emission projections are (as a rule) fully updated every 4 years News • Updated projections (2010/ 2020) will be published in a White paper in Nov. 2004

  4. Emission calculation model • Different pollutants (CO2, NOX, SO2 and VOC) are disaggregated by source and sector and specified in the model • Emission are projected as a function of activity data and emission coeffisients. • Emission coeffisients are calibrated to a base year, and emissions are projected by taking into account effects of environmental instruments or policies that are already implemented or decided • Microinformation are used as guidance to adjust or overrule model projections

  5. Emission model..cont. • Statistics Norway develop and update the Emission calculation model in collaboration with The Norwegian State Pollution Control • Emission calculation model are updated on the basis of historical emission data and takes into account the effects of adopted environmental policies, technological change etc. • Update of model is done every fourth or fifth year

  6. Authorities involved • Ministry of Finance are responsible for the production and publishing of the official emission projections, and activity data fed into the MSG ( including energy data) • The Norwegian State Pollution control are responsible for the production of emission projections of non- CO2 gases, and also for publishing emisson by source for all GHG- gases • Ministry of Oil and Energy are responsible for the annual projections of the emissions from the Petroleum sector • Ministry of Agriculture and The Norwegian State Pollution are responsible for the LUCF projections

  7. LUCF projections • In Norway there are no permanent institutional arrangement for making projection on GHG emission/removals from LUCF sector • Ministry of Agriculture and The Norwegian State Pollution are responsible for the LUCF projections • Norwegian forest has a long rotation period (70-120 years), thus the projection is mainly driven by past forest management practice which will result in continuing gross increment the next 10-20 years • The projection is based on following assumptions: - continuation of increase in gross increment - continuation of current harvesting rate - no changes in natural dieoff - no change in forest policy - soil carbon and non-CO2 GHGs not included

  8. Main characteristics of the Norwegian model • Emissions projections consistent with overall macroeconomic projections • Combination of a top down and a buttom up approach • Macroapproach to emissions mainly driven by energy use (CO2) • Micro aproach: • non- CO2 emissions • processing industry • road traffic • petroleum sector • Micro level and micro information more relevant and available for 2010 than 2020

  9. Challenges • Intersection between macro and micro level • How to ensure consistensy with macrolevel and activity data fed into the macro model, and emission projections when relying on a large degree of micro- information and information gathered from the branches themselves ? • How to deal with ”voluntary agreements” in projections and scenarios when measures and emisson reductions would be achieved anyway? • How to interprete the different scenarios in the reporting guidelines ?

  10. Challenges :Land-Use Change and Forestry • Difficult to project harvesting rate, since this is mainly driven by the international prices on timber • Difficult to predict eventually increased in the natural dieoff (decay) when the rate of old forests increase due to reduces harvesting rate • Difficult to predict changes in soil carbon stock due to changed harvesting rate • Difficult to project effect of past measures (improved forest management) • Difficult to predict carbon changes in marginal forests (forest in mountain areas and in northern parts of Norway)

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