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12th June 2018

12th June 2018. Extreme weather events , water quality and consultations for acute gastroenteritis , and projection under different climate scenarios. Tora Scharffenberg, Dept. Zoonotic , Food and Waterborne Infections.

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12th June 2018

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  1. 12th June 2018 Extreme weatherevents, water quality and consultations for acutegastroenteritis, and projection under different climate scenarios Tora Scharffenberg, Dept. Zoonotic, Food and WaterborneInfections

  2. Extreme weatherevents, water quality and consultations for acutegastroenteritis Funded by KLIMAFORSK, RCN. Background • Climate change→ Increasedprecipitation and runoff and more frequentextremeweatherevents. • Insufficient drinking water treatment and agingdrinking water and sewagedistribution systems are vulnerable to extremeevents and flooding. • There is limited knowledgeonhowclimatechangewillaffectthesafetyofdrinkingwater. • May increasethe risk ofillness due to contaminateddrinking water. Aims of the project: Generate knowledge on effects of extreme weather events on drinking water quality and waterborne illness. Evaluate if future changes in climate will have negative influences on water quality and waterborne gastroenteritis. Identify priority areas where action is needed to minimize negative health impact in future climate. National collaborating partners: FHI, MET, NVE, NMBU, Norsk vann International: SSI(DK), FHM(SE), THL(FI)

  3. Background Climatechange leads to increasedprecipitation and runoff and more frequentextremeweatherevents. Norwegian waterworks have experienced a detioration in raw water qualityfollowing episodes ofheavyrainfall, includingraise in fecalpollution,turbidity and colour. Insufficientdrinking water treatment and agingdrinking water and sewagedistribution systems are vulnerable to flooding. Manyinfectiousmicroorganismscan be affected by climaticconditions. This mayincreasethe risk ofillness due to contaminateddrinking water. Little is knownabouthowclimatechangewillaffectthesafetyofdrinking water.

  4. The overall aimoftheproject: The overall aimoftheproject is to generatenewknowledgeontheeffectsofclimatechangeondrinking water quality and waterborneillness, and to identifypriority areas where action is needed to minimize negative healthimpactonthesociety in a futureclimate. To evaluateiffuturechanges in climatewill have negative influencesonwater quality and waterbornegastroenteritis.

  5. Approach This presentationwillfocusonresults from WorkPackage I and II

  6. Data collection (1): Workpackage I: Aim: To determine to whichextentextremeweathereventscaninfluencethequalityof different sourcesofraw water. 26 ofNorway’sbiggest water works(37 wtp), (23 surface water works (incl. 2 rivers) and 3 groundwaterworks), distributed over the hole country. Collected by Questback, info aboutthe water works and what water qualityinformationthatwasacceccable. Water quality data: Collectedaccrediteddata, internalanalysis and on-line data for Indicatorbacteria, pH, conductivity, tyrbidity and colour, from raw and treated water for theperiod 2006-2016. Meteorological/hydrological data: rain/precipitation, runoff and temperature (observed and grid-data) (from Norwegian MeteorologicalInstitute(MET) and Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate(NVE)

  7. Data collection (2): Workpackage II: Aim: To quantifytherelationshipbetweenprecipitation and consultations for gastroenteritis in primaryhealthcare. Data collection: Sykdomspulsen: 10 yearsof data (2006-2015) ofdailygastroenteritisconsultationsfrom General practicionairs (GP) in Norway. Meteorological/hydrological data: rain/precipitation, temperature and runoff.

  8. Results:

  9. WP I: Association betweenextremeweatherevents, hydrology and raw water qualityin selectedwaterworks Results : Higherlevelsofrunoff and rainareassociatedwithincreasedlevelsofcoliformbacteria, E. coli, intestinal enterococci and turbiditythroughouttheentireyear. Highertemperatureswereassociatedwithhigherlevelsofcoliformbacteria, E.coli intestinal enterococci and turbidity in thewinter, but not in spring, summer or autumn, except for an associationwithturbidity in spring. Higherlevelsofrainwereassociatedwithhigherlevelsofcoliformbacteriain all seasons, E.coli and Intestinal enterococci in winter, summer and autumn, and withturbidity in winter and autumn. Higherlevelsofrunoffwereassociatedwithhigherlevelsofcoliformbacteria in all seasons, E. coli in winter, summer and autumn, and Intestinal enterococci in winter and summer.

  10. WP I: Association betweenextremeweatherevents, hydrology and treated water qualityin selectedwaterworks • No associationwasfoundbetweenclimate parameters and treated water quality. • This illustratesthatthebiggest water works in Norway areable to copewiththeextremeweathereventsthatwe have experienced so far, butwhatabouttheclimatesenarioes in thefuture??

  11. WP II: Association betweenextremeweatherevents and consultations for acutegastroenteritis and projection under different climate scenarios. Onlysomeconflictingassociationswerefound: More dayswithextremetemperatureswereassociatedwith more outbreaks in thewholeyear for theentire Norwegian population and particularely in the age group 15-64 years. More dayswithextremerunoffwereassociatedwith less outbreaks in winter for theentirepopulation and 0-4 yearolds, and for thewholeyear for age group 5-14 years. More dayswithextremerainwereassociatedwith less outbreaks in thewholeyear for theentirepopulation, in winter for age group 15-64 years, and in spring for 0-4 yearolds.

  12. Norway will get warmer and wetter

  13. Futurechanges in water quality Climate projections Historicalassociations Higher levels of runoff, rain and temperature Precipitation Future scenario: RCP8.5 Climate models: 10 climate projections Future period: 2071-2100 Higher levels of indicator bacteria, turbidity and colour

  14. Future changes in E. coliconcentration

  15. Future changes in coliform bacteria concentration (99p)

  16. Conclusions • We found clear connections between weather events/hydrology and the quality of the source of drinking water • We found no connection between weather events/hydrology and the quality of the treated drinking water. • But: it will get worse (climate change, and especially more rain, leads to higher concentrations of indicator bacteria, so arethe water worksprepared for this? • Using data from thisstudy and futureclimate scenarios combinedwithmodellingoftreatmentcapacity and QMRA is needed to adress and prepare for a changingclimate. REMARKS: • only data from the largest waterworks were included • the water distribution system must also play along!

  17. Acknowledgements Project participants from NIPH: Karin Nygård (Project leader) Linda Selje Sunde (coordinator) Vidar Lund (WP I-leader) Bernardo Guzman Herrador (WP II-leader) Richard White (statistician) Wenche Fonahn Externalprojectparticipants: Norwegian MeteorologicalInstitute(MET) Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate(NVE)

  18. Thankyou for yourattention

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