Innovative Policy and Technology Foresight in Korea

1. Innovative Policy and Technology Foresight in Korea 2011 . 5. 3 Suk Joon KIM, Ph.D. President Science and Technology Policy Institute Republic of Korea

2. Contents Korean STI Development and Achievement Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean Technology Foresight Linking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases Lessons Learned

3. Economic Indicators Source: Bureau of Statistics.

4. STI(Science, Technology and Innovation) Statistics and Outputs Source: Ministry of Science and Technology.* R&D / GNP ** year of 2008

5. 1980 2009 Exports [1960s]Natural Resource [1980s]Light Industries; Heavy and Chemical Industries [2000s]High-tech. Industries; Heavy and Chemical Industries 1960 Source: Korea Int’l Trade Association, Korea Customs Service.

6. 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s New Industry Including ICT Heavy and Chemical Industry Technology-Intensive Industry Knowledge-Intensive Industry Industry forPromotion LightIndustry Critical/Essential Technology Equipment-embodiedTechnology TechnologicalNeeds OperationTechnology ProductionTechnology CreativeTechnology Modificationof ForeignTechnologies,Fostering ofEndogenousTechnologyDevelopment Absorption/Assimilationof ForeignTechnologies,ReverseEngineering Importation/Learning of Turnkey-based Foreign Technologies Strengtheningof Future-orientedR&DEfforts Broadening/Deepening ofDomesticR&D Efforts TechnologicalEfforts Imitation Innovation Technological Needs/Efforts Source: Hwang, Yongsoo (2007).

7. Contents Korean STI Development and Achievement Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean Technology Foresight Linking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases Lessons Learned

8. 5% Investment Input Reach to 5% of GDP on GERD ① World-class human resources ② Basic & fundamental research ③ SMEs’ innovation ④ S&T globalization ⑤ Regional innovation ⑥ S&T infrastructure ⑦ S&T culture * SMEs : Small-and Medium-sized Enterprises Process 7Focused Areas ① Key industrial technologies ② Emerging industrial technologies ③ Knowledge-based service technologies ④ State-led Technologies ⑤ National issues-related technologies ⑥ Global issues-related technologies ⑦ Basic & convergent technologies Perfor-mance Become one of 7 major S&T powers in the world 577 Initiative

9. R&D –Concentrate on 7 major technology areas • We will concentrate on the development of 90 technologies in the 7 major technology areas

10. Goals –Become one of 7 major S&T powers in the world • Output index

11. Technology Foresight • Challenges (under Korean context) • Trends • Issues Society Fast ageing society FreshWater • STI Policy/StrategyFormulation • - Design Innovative S&T System • - Identify Strategic Research Area • key technologies Technology Globalization & Newly rising economy Security EnhancingS&T Competitiveness Meet Energy Demand Economy Rapidly changing business & tech. env New Business Ecology Basic Research Climate Changes. Politics North Korea Wild Cards Value Tech. Foresight as a STI Policy Instrument • Technology Foresight is utilized to inform on-going decision-making through the better understanding of advances in S&T and its interaction with the future society, in long term perspectives

12. Contents Korean STI Development and Achievement Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean Technology Foresight Linking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases Lessons Learned

13. Chronology of Technology Foresight Activities

14. Tech. Foresight Activities and STEPI Capability • Technology Foresight Activities in Korea (partly shown) • Technology Foresight Research in STEPI • Main facilitator of the 1st(1993) and 2nd(1998) Korean TF • Key partner institute for the 3rd (2003) and 4th (2010) Korean TF • Providing TF tutorial for the developing countries through ART and TAP since 2001 • Currently (in 2011) • Carrying out theme-based TFs in energy and environment area • Dissemination the foresight knowledge through ‘Future Horizon’(quarterly magazine) and ‘STEPI Foresight newsletter’(bi-weekly)

15. 4th Korean S&T Foresight : Framework • Identification of future technology alternatives • Technology Solution and its realization timing (Delphi Survey) • Future Scenario and Strategic Policy Options * courtesy of KISTEP

16. Contents Korean STI Development and Achievement Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean Technology Foresight Linking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases Lessons Learned

17. From Foresight to STI Policy : Green Technology Results of Forward Looking Activity Other Future Reports The 2nd & 3rd Tech Foresight S&T Vision 2040 National Vision 2030 Industry Vision 2030 Green Growth Vision etc. OECD World Resource Institute EU Foresight Report Stern Review(UK) IEA, etc. Megatrend Limited naturalresource Shortage of clean water Low carbon society High energy demand Implication - Strengthen national competiveness through proactive measures for future energy & environment challenges - Upgrade national innovation system for sustainable growth - Nurture new economic growth engines in energy and environment industry through advances in Future science and technology New and Emerging Technologies in Energy and Environment Area

18. Direction for Investment into GT Development Increase of GT R&D Investment 27 GTs for focused development • Selection of Key GTs based ongrowth and green impacts • Double R&D expenditure by ’12 • Increase of Basic R&D to 35% Convergence Green Tech Increase of Basic R&D Make existing Industries green Enlarging GT R&D Infra Green Technology(GT) Strategy in Korea • Main Contents of GT R&D Master Plan by NSTC Strategy for GT Development Source : GT R&D Master Plan, 2009. 1. 13

19. From Foresight to STI Policy : Information Tech. Forward looking Activity in Korea Other Future Reports The 2nd & 3rd Tech Foresight S&T Vision 2040 National Vision 2030 IT TF 2020 (2007) IT Convergence TF 2030(2011) Each Country’s TF results(USA , EU Framework etc.) Gartner, IBM, Nielson, Economist, wired, IFTF etc. Megatrends Convergence Virtualization All things Connected Smart Implication • Maintain current competiveness in IT Manufacturing but it needs to widen IT value chain to Service and Contents • Focusing on convergence with other industries • Promote mass creativity based on IT Solution New and Emerging Technologies in Information Technology Area

20. 2. IT Industry solvingEconomic & SocialProblems 1. IT Industry Convergent with other Industries 3. IT IndustryAdvancing Higher • Construction of Industrial Basis for High Oil Prices & Aging Phenomenon • Convergence of IT & other industries • - Creation of High Added- Value and Improvement of Productivity • Consolidation of Cooperation among Enterprises and Enhancement of Components & SW Competitiveness New IT Strategy Vision Advancement of Industrial Structure And Solution of Social Problems Objectives IT + Service Industry Green IT(Environment-friendly/Energy) Network/ Wireless Comm. LED Industry Life + IT Semiconductor/Display Converged Product Embedded SW Health Bio + IT IT Components & SW Industry IT Converged Processor Source : Ministry of Knowledge Economy(2008) “New IT Strategy”

21. Contents Korean STI Development and Achievement Korean S&T Plans and Policies Korean Technology Foresight Linking Foresight to STI Policy : Cases Lessons Learned

22. Lessons Learned (1/2) • key instrument for STI policy/strategy formulationby addressing long-term future challenges and societal issues <National strategic technology selection procedures: 18 years of experiences> → Implemented into 5yr National S&T Basic Plan→ Priority setting for strategic research area : 7 areas/90 technologies→ Sector-based STI strategy and success: GT, IT (LCD, LED, IT Service) • key linkage in fusion and convergence technology paradigm → it helps to build new networks and linkages across fields → Facilitate the adoption of inter-disciplinary thinking over long term horizon Increasing Importance and success of Tech. Foresight in Korean STI

23. Lessons Learned (2/2) • Strategic technology selection and focused investment • Essential for emerging economy’s S&T development with scarce resources both in Human capital and S&T infra, • Based on Korea’s experience, it is highly recommended to adopt strategic tech. selection procedure with tech. foresight for effective national STI policy/strategy formulation • Build-up national champions in strategic target S&T areas • Along with global fusion and convergence technology paradigm shifts, strategic national target S&T areas should be raised up as national champions in cooperation of domestic indigenous enterprises. Implication for Emerging Economy for Adopting Tech. Foresight

24. Thank you !!