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Population

Population. Sources: The World Food Problem Leathers and Foster, 2004 World Hunger 12 Myths Lappe Collins and Rossett, 1998 Hesketh et al., New England J. Med 353: 1171-1176 Wikipedia. ttp://www.amazon.com/World-Food-Problem-Toward-Undernutrition/dp/1588266389. Thomas Malthus.

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Population

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  1. Population Sources: The World Food Problem Leathers and Foster, 2004 World Hunger 12 Myths Lappe Collins and Rossett, 1998 Hesketh et al., New England J. Med 353: 1171-1176 Wikipedia ttp://www.amazon.com/World-Food-Problem-Toward-Undernutrition/dp/1588266389

  2. Thomas Malthus • 1798: Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society • Population growth tends to outstrip the means of subsistence • Food increases arithmetically while population increases geometrically • The poor can be kept alive by charity, but since they would then propagate, this is cruelty in disguise. http://www.lakesideschool.org/studentweb/worldhistory/modernworld/images/malthus.jpg

  3. Paul Ehrlich • 1968: The Population Bomb • “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. • In the 1970s the world will undergo famines— • Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death” http://bacs-s02.bacs.uq.edu.au/sib/sib-news/images/ehrlich1.jpg

  4. World Population through History http://newswhitehouse.com/worldpop.gif

  5. Demographic Transition • First, high birth rates and high death rates • Then, improved living standards, health cause death rates to drop • Finally, low birth rates match low death rates

  6. Global Death Rates • Demographic Transition: • First, death rates must drop • Then birth rates drop http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d7/Death_rate_world_map.PNG/800px-Death_rate_world_map.PNG

  7. Demographic Transition • 1750-1950: Occurred in developed countries • 1950: Began to see death rates drop in developing countries • 2050: Projected completion of transition

  8. Demographic Transition • Example: U.S. History • When agrarian society, people had many kids • Source of security, labor

  9. Demographic Transition • Example: U.S. History • When became industrial, fewer kids/family • Lowered infant mortality • No need to rely on children’s labor • More opportunities for women • Happened without birth control Ford Motor assembly line http://websupport1.citytech.cuny.edu/Faculty/pcatapano/lectures_us2/Model_T_Assembly_Line.jpg

  10. Global Fertility • 1950’s: 5 children/woman • 1970’s: 4 children/woman • 1990’s: 2.8 children/woman • Replacement: 2.1 children/woman

  11. Global Population • Population growth rate is slowing down and will eventually stop • Dip in 1960 due to 30 million deaths in China • Great Leap Forward Famine http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/img/worldgr.gif

  12. World Population Projection • Estimated to peak at 9 billion in 2070

  13. World Population Growth

  14. Asia: 6.4 Billion China:: 1.3 Billion India: : 1.1 Billion Africa: 885 Million Americas: 875 Million Europe:: 727 Million Oceana: 32 Million World Population Demographics http://www.extension.umn.edu/distribution/livestocksystems/images/7220f03.gif

  15. World Population http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/g-gpw-population-map.gif

  16. AIDS • 40 million people infected with HIV • 2/3 in sub Sahara Africa • Many will die of AIDS • Will not greatly impact global population growth • Will Impact some countries • Losses by 2020: • Uganda 45% • Rwanda 35% • Malawi 30% Malawi AIDS orphans http://farm1.static.flickr.com/177/433616103_bd3f7cbef2.jpg?v=0

  17. Global HIV 2006 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/68/People_living_with_HIV_AIDS_world_map.PNG/800px-People_living_with_HIV_AIDS_world_map.PNG

  18. Food Production per Capita • Food Production per capita is rising worldwide • But falling in Africa • Food production is keeping up with population • Otherwise food prices would have risen • Food prices have dropped

  19. Food Production in Sub-Saharan Africa • Food Production in Sub Saharan Africa not keeping up with population

  20. Per Capita Production of Calories, Fat, Protein

  21. Progressivist View • Things are good and getting better: • Worldwide standard of living • Education • Health • Trade • People are an asset. • Population causes shortages which raise prices, • stimulating entrepreneurs to satisfy the shortages. • We end up better off as a result. Julian Simon

  22. Progressivist View • Two important indicators of progress and improvement in life are • Decreased Infant Mortality • Increased Life Expectancy

  23. Progressivist View Elite Progress Elite Poor Population stimulates economy: progress. We are all better off Poor

  24. Revisionist View • Adoption and spread of agriculture have trapped humanity in a spiral of • Population growth • Ecological destruction • Social tyranny. • The problem stems from the anti-ecological culture (religion) of agricultural societies • humans believe they are above and not part of nature (global ecosystem) • and therefore can destroy it at will. Civilization is based on Agriculture http://cache.virtualtourist.com/1928244-Skyline-New_York_City.jpg

  25. Daniel Quinn • 1992: Ishmael • Although population is 5.5 billion, we produce enough food for 6.0 billion even though millions are starving • Because we produce enough food for 6 billion, in 3 or 4 years there will be 6 billion people. • Then, even though millions are starving, we will produce enough for 6.5 billion. • Thus in another 3-4 years there will be 6.5 billion • To halt this process, must face the fact that increasing food production doesn’t feed the hungry, it only fuels the population explosion.

  26. Agricultural Revolution Hunters & Gatherers Agriculture Food production Expanding population & environmental destruction Conquest for land Population Growth Technology Culture

  27. Revisionist View Elite Over-Population, Ecological Destruction Agriculture, Anti-Ecological Religion Wealth Resources Poor Root Causes Social Tyranny

  28. Social Equity View • Problems of • poverty • overpopulation • ecological destruction • Are due to • inequity of wealth • unfairness of economic and social systems Frances Moore Lappe, Food First http://www.mediathatmattersfest.org/mtm05/img/frances_moore_lappe.jpg

  29. Social Equity View • Inequity causes overpopulation • Poor have no other source of wealth • Overpopulation causes ecological destruction • Must make economic and social systems fairer • Share control of global resources more fairly • Economic democracy http://bks4.books.google.com/books?id=AoMrJnk-qhgC&printsec=frontcover&img=1&zoom=1&sig=ACfU3U3gtcaFOie7F_YcDq-G10QXTEZAQg

  30. Social Equity View Elite Wealth Over-Population Ecological Destruction Poor Inequity = Root Cause

  31. If the world were 100 people http://shoesforhumanity.org/images/graph.gif

  32. If the world were 100 people (2008) • 50 male • 50 female • 61 Asians • 13 Africans • 12 Europeans • 9 Latin Americans • 5 USA and Canada • 1 South Pacific • 75 nonwhite • 25 white • 67 non-Christian • 33 Christian • 60 mistrust their own governments (Source: Family Care Foundation; 100 people.org)

  33. If the world were 100 people(2008) • 47 are urban dwellers • 15 live in urban slums • 33 attempt to live on 3% of global income • 6 control 50% of the entire world’s wealth • Most are U.S. citizens • 1 has a college education • 1 owns a computer • 1 near birth • 1 near death

  34. Both hunger and high fertility occur when: • Poverty is extreme and widespread • Society denies security and opportunity to people • Infant mortality is high • Most people can’t get land, jobs, education, health care, old age security • Few opportunities for women outside of home Bangladesh mother http://www.refugeesinternational.org/files/4738_image1_BA_1104_bihari_mother_and_child.jpg

  35. Children • Labor force • Chance for a job in city • Security • major investment • rational choice 218 million children work http://mancelovici.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/nike_child_labor.jpg

  36. Women’s Education • Powerful predictor of lower fertility • Reflects opportunity in society Girls in school, India http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b8/Girls_in_school_Gujarat.jpg/800px-Girls_in_school_Gujarat.jpg

  37. Male Poverty • Low self-esteem • Dominate women and children • Thus more children

  38. Examples • Sri Lanka: • lower price rice • led to population decline • Cuba: • low prices for food and health care • reduced population rate from 4.7 to 1.6 • Kerala, India: • lower price rice, kerosene • 1/3 birth rate of average in India • Literacy for women is 2.5 times average in India Kerala, India http://www.kerala-tourism-india.com/gifs/woman-harvesting-rice-fields-lower.jpg

  39. Family Planning • Birth Control is responsible for only 15-20% total fertility decline • Thus population growth cannot be brought down simply by family planning or contraception • but it can speed the decline • Contraceptive use in Developing World has increased • 9% in 1960 • 60% in late 1990s • Demographic Transition requires improved • Health • Social Security • Education IUD: Intra Uterine Device http://www.plymouth.edu/wsgr/iud.jpg

  40. Global Fertility http://www.who.int/healthinfo/statistics/15.whostat2005map_totalfertilityrate.jpg

  41. Sterilization • Encouraged by Western donors for developing countries • Quotas are set • Incentives are used • Cash, roads, transportation, latrines • For hungry, choices are limited • 1/3 of married women in India and China are sterilized Indian woman

  42. Puerto Rico: La Operacion • U. S. seized in 1898 • Spanish American war • Sugar companies set up vast plantations • Small farmers evicted • By 1925 • 2% of population owned 80% of land • 70% of population landless’ • Unemployment • termed “overpopulation” by U.S. • By 1940’s • light manufacturing moved in • attracted to cheap labor, low taxes http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/americas/puerto_rico.jpg

  43. Puerto Rico: La Operacion • Young women were key to labor force • Problem was pregnancy • Result: massive sterilization program • Women coerced into sterilization • without being told it was irreversible • By 1968 • 1/3 of women childbearing age were sterilized • Emigration and sterilization • resulted in population drop • with no increase in standard of living.

  44. Bangladesh • Intensive Family Planning • in Matlab region • Contraceptive use doubled • Resulted in reduced birth rate • Cost was very high: • $120/birth averted • This is 120% of per capita gross domestic product • Not replicable on a national scale http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2006/HEALTH/parenting/05/08/mothers.index/story.vert.1.1.jpg

  45. China • 1950s, 60s Under Mao • children encouraged • Fertility rate: 5.9 children/woman • 1970-1979 new policy to cope with overpopulation • “one is good, 2 is ok, 3 is too many” • “late, long, few” • Have fewer children later • greater spacing between • Fertility dropped steeply to 2.9 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/china_party_congress/china_ruling_party/key_people_events/html/default.stm

  46. Fertility decline in China

  47. China One Child Policy • 1979 “one child” policy enacted • For urban areas • Material benefits • if have 1 child • Social & official pressure • If have more than 1 child • 71% Chinese are rural • Multiple children are common • Fertility rate has declined • But also declined in other Asian countries without coercion • Human rights violation? http://www.timeopinionleaders.com/blog/images/uploads/knCHINA_BABIES_wideweb__470x316,0.jpg

  48. Birth Control Methods in China

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