Determining Investments in Societal Safety and Security: Principles, Methods, and Models

1. Project titlePrinciples, methods and models for determining the right level of investments in societal safety and security • Key researchers Professor Terje Aven, University of Stavanger (project leader) • Professor Frank Asche, University of Stavanger • Professor Petter Osmundsen, University of Stavanger • Professor Jan Erik Vinnem, University of Stavanger • Professor Britt-Marie Drottz-Sjöberg, NTNU and University of Stavanger (adjunct professor) • Professor Michael Jones-Lee, University of Newcastle, UK and University of Stavanger (adjunct professor) • Professor Ortwin Renn, University of Stuttgart, Germany and University of Stavanger (adjunct professor) • Ass. professor Seth Guikema, Texas A&M University, US and University of Stavanger (adjunct professor) • Post.doc. Eirik B. Abrahamsen, University of Stavanger

2. Objectives Principle objectives • To develop principles, methods and models for determining the right investments in societal safety and security, taking into account different and potentially conflicting objectives in the decision process Subgoals of the project: • Clarify the theoretical rationale for investments in societal safety and security, particularly addressing: • The role of cost-benefit analyses, cost-effectiveness analyses and other type of analyses to support decisions on safety and security, • The role of the portfolio theory to guide decisions on safety and security, • The cautionary (including the pre-cautionary) and the ALARP principles' role to guide decisions on safety and security. • How risk can be transferred using market mechanisms. • Establish overall principles for investments in safety and security • Develop new methods and models • Produce 1 PhD • Publish minimum 8 papers in international journals with referee.

3. Approach and methods, disciplines • The work will be based on established standards for scientific work and research within the disciplines of risk management/governance and economics • the research will be based on fundamental perspectives on risk, and theories and methods such as the utility theory, the portfolio theory and the cautionary principle. • collaboration between risk and uncertainty analysis experts and economists Hypotheses • The use of cost-benefit analysis based on expected net present values is not adequate to determine the right level of investments in safety and security. • The portfolio theory is not adequate to guide decision investments in safety and security. • The cost-benefit analysis based on expected net present values and the cautionary principle (and in particular the ALARP principle) are not consistent. • Pre-defined risk acceptance criteria do not provide an adequate basis for guiding decisions on risk and uncertainty. • The elicitation of perceived risk and benefit dimensions contributes to an improved basis for determining the right investment level in societal safety and security.

4. Expected results and benefit • Principles, methods and models for investments in safety and security • 1 PhD and minimum 8 papers in international journals with referee. By improving our knowledge about the rationale for investments in safety and security, and presenting new methods, the project will influence policies at different governmental levels, both in the public and the private sectors as well as in society at large.

5. Dissemination • Publication in internationally recognised journals and presentations of work at international scientific conferences, such as ESREL • Seminars and workshops • Website • Input to the master programmes at the University of Stavanger in risk management and in societal safety.