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South African Floods of 11th and 12th November 2008: Weather Patterns and Impacts

Explore heavy floods in South Africa on 11th and 12th November 2008, analyzing rainfall patterns, weather systems, observation networks, and a case study. Understand model results and verification, and draw conclusions from the events.

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South African Floods of 11th and 12th November 2008: Weather Patterns and Impacts

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  1. Heavy floods episodes on the 11th and 12th November 2008 South African case study Isaac Ngwana

  2. Outline • General rainfall patterns • Main weather systems • Observation network • Case study • Model results and verification • Conclusion Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  3. Rainfall patterns in SA Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  4. Main weather systems- responsible for flooding events TTT Tropical cyclones Cut off low Frontal system Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  5. Weather observation stations in South Africa • SURFACE OBSERVATIONS • 23 climate stations • 23 sea surface temperature stations • 25 weather offices • 35 electric _manual (aws manned) • 156 automatic weather stations – unmanned • 165 automatic rainfall stations • 1257 rainfall (monthly; ~50 provide daily data) • UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS • 9 Upper air stations ( Including the ISLANDS – Marion and Gough) Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  6. Weather observation stations in South Africa Weather observation stations in South Africa Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011 6

  7. RADAR NETWORK in South Africa Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  8. Case study (11 & 12 Nov 2008) - general damage • 47 people were killed • Thousands evacuated • Roads and bridges swept away Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW04-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  9. Warning System-print media Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  10. Early Warning System-print media cont… Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2011-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  11. 11 November 2008 Observations - 11 November 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011 11

  12. Observed 24 hr rainfall 11 & 12 Nov 2012 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  13. 11 November 2008 Observations -12 November 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011 13

  14. Weather systems – 11 Nov 2012 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2011-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  15. Observed weather -11 Nov 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2011-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  16. Observed weather 12 Nov 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2011-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  17. Observed weather -12 Nov 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2011-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  18. NWP Modeling in South Africa Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  19. NWP Modeling in South Africa Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  20. Modeling - weather systems 12 -48 hr forecast Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  21. 12 November 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  22. 12 November 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  23. Model -12 November 2008 Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  24. Eye ball verification Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  25. Warning System-SAWS website Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2011-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

  26. Conclusion • 11 &12 Nov 2008 flooding events were well forecast by the model • Forecast warning were issued in time • Necessary steps were taken by government dept. even though 47 people lost their lives • Good observation data bank, but sparse • Local data ingest might improve model forecast Document Reference: SMRF-PSN-NGW004-001-2012-05-09 Document Template Reference: AWC-PSN-001.1 Date of last revision: 26 August 2011

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