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Prospective Technology Developments Up to 2050. Bharat Srinivasan Managing Director, Technology Marketing. 9th Arab Energy Conference Doha, Qatar May 9 – 12, 2010. Agenda. Developments Driven by Innovation, Leveraged Strengths and Collaborative Partnerships. Exploration &Production
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Prospective Technology Developments Up to 2050 Bharat Srinivasan Managing Director, Technology Marketing 9th Arab Energy Conference Doha, Qatar May 9 – 12, 2010
Agenda Developments Driven by Innovation, Leveraged Strengths and Collaborative Partnerships • Exploration &Production • Exploration & Exploration Well Success • EOR & Impacts on Recoverable Reserves • Non-conventional Oil Production • Renewables Strategy • Refining and Clean Fuels
Chevron Profile 60,000employees 11.6billion BOE net proved oil and gas reserves 2.7million BOE daily net production 2.2million BPD refining capacity 15fuels/lubes refineries + 2upgraders 3retail brands 25,800retail outlets
Exploration and Production • Exploration and Production • Exploration & Exploration Well Success • EOR & Impacts on Recoverable Reserves • Non-conventional Oil Production
Photographed in the Winter of 1937, Dammam No. 1 (right) and Dammam No. 7 (background) appeared as the only foreign bodies in an isolated desert landscape. By the following year, the discovery at Dammam No. 7 would establish Saudi Arabia’s potential as an oil-producing giant. Chevron in the Arab World
A Strong Worldwide Portfolio Europe, Eurasia & Middle East 650MBOED North America 750MBOED Asia-Pacific 700MBOED Africa &Latin America 600MBOED 11.6BBOE Proved Reserves 2.7MMBOED Net Production Capacity Areas of Operation
Consistent Exploration Success2002 - 2008 8.5 45 Cumulative Resources Added From Exploration BBOEResource Adds %Average Exploration Success Rate 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Key Resource Additions Year-End Mean Resource Estimates
Technology: Key to Exploration Success • 3D seismic/4D • Horizontal, multi-lateral wells • Completions • Subsalt wells • Supercomputers • Visualization • Geostatistics in reservoir models • Record depth - drilling • Record depth - production
Exploration and Production • Exploration and Production • Exploration & Exploration Well Success • EOR & Impacts on Recoverable Reserves • Non-conventional Oil Production
Future Technologies Will Focus on Recovering More from Existing Fields • Improved reservoir management practices • Reliability and uptime • De-bottlenecking operations • Optimization and automation • Capital efficiency and drilling costs • Energy efficiency
Steamflood – Increases reserves by a factor of 2-10 times compared to primary heavy oil recovery Technology Drives EOR PerformanceThermal Recovery – Most Successfully Applied EOR Method Worldwide Thermal 67% Pre-Steam Post-Steam Oil Saturation Averages 8% CO2 12% Oil Saturation Averages 55% HC Misc 19% Chemical 1% N2 1% Typical oil saturated core in Duri Field, Indonesia
Collaboration & Innovation Drive PerformanceApplying Steamflood Experience to New Opportunities Industry/Institution Collaboration • INTERSECT simulation capabilities for HO reservoirs • i-field – collaborative, visual environment to optimize and transform production performance • University of Texas –advancing the science of EOR IOC Collaboration • PNZ Carbonate Steamflood Development – Kingdom of Saudi Arabia • Petropiar (Hamaca) – Petroleos de Venezuela • Duri – Indonesia • Reservoir and heat management are critical • Efficient operating practices lead to high recoveries • Develop and transfer critical Organizational Capabilities • Advanced technology, processes and best practices
Exploration & Production • Exploration and Production • Exploration & Exploration Well Success • EOR & Impacts on Recoverable Reserves • Non-conventional Oil Production
Unconventional Resources XHO, GTL, CTL and “other” resources such as Biomass, Hydrates, etc. alternate hydrocarbon resources will become increasingly important Long-Term Outlook Shows Growth in Unconventional Resources Unconventional Liquids (MMBPD) Overall Oil Supply (MMBD) 17 - 150 - Shale Oil Gap - Unconventionals Bio-Fuels Coal to Liquids NGLs, Condensate, etc. 100 - Gas to Liquids Middle East, West Africa, and FSU 50 - Heavy Oil North America, Latin America, Asia-Pacific, and Europe 0 - 0 - 2005 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 • Hydrocarbon Demand – Grows from 85 MM BOED to 125 MM BOED over the next 25 years • Total Oil Production Plateau – At approximately 100 MM BOED the demand gap is filled by Unconventional Sources
Global Heavy Oil Resources Heavy / Extra Heavy Oil Production Heavy / Extra Heavy Oil-in-Place 9% UNCONVENTIONAL EXTRA HEAVY / BITUMEN 55% CONVENTIONAL 30% CONVENTIONAL 91% HEAVY 15% Alaska UK Netherlands Russia Canada E. Europe Turkey Italy USA Lower 40 Kuwait Jordan Egypt Iran China Mexico India Saudi Arabia Trinidad Nigeria Oman Indonesia Colombia Venezuela Ecuador Peru Barrels in Place Brazil Angola 1 Billion Madagascar Australia 10 Billion Argentina 100 Billion > 1 Trillion © 2009 Chevron Corporation 15
South Umm Gudair PNZ Wafra South Fuwaris Saudi Arabia Humma Chevron’s Development of Heavy Oil Reserves • ~ 500,000 BOPD (net) = largest amongst International Oil Companies account for almost half of the world’s thermal heavy oil production North Sea Alberta Canada San Joaquin Valley California Partitioned Neutral Zone China Arabian Gulf Venezuela Chad Hamaca Boscan Duri Indonesia Angola Brazil Mining Offshore Primary Thermal
Demand is Growing, All Sources will be Needed 2010 12,842 Million Tons of Oil Equivalent 240 Mmboe/d 2030 17,095 Million Tons of Oil Equivalent 320 Mmboe/d 1% 10% 2% 26% 6% 21% 34% Refs:IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
Leveraging Our Assets • Chevron pursues renewable energy technologies that • Are similar to our core business • Can be integrated into our existing asset base • Enable our core business • Can give us a competitive advantage
Geothermal Areas of Focus Energy Efficiency Emerging Energy Advanced Biofuels
Chevron Technology VenturesBiofuels Business Unit Chevron Technology Ventures manages Chevron’s advanced biofuels research portfolio and the company’s interest in Catchlight Energy External Research Collaborations Internal R&D • Universities • Government laboratories • Industrial partners • NGOs • Feedstock supply and optimization • Conversion technologies • Fuel and combustion technology
Catchlight Energy Chevron’s 50/50 joint venture with Weyerhaeuser to research, develop and commercialize the conversion of forest-based biomass into biofuels Weyerhaeuser Chevron Catchlight Energy Feedstocksat scale Conversiontechnology High-quality fuels
Going Forward • Maintain leadership in energy efficiency • Continue to narrow focus in advanced biofuels feedstocks and conversion technologies • Continue to partner business units to investigate, develop and integrate innovative solutions • Maintain emphasis on energy at scale
Refining Refining & Clean Fuel Production
Conversion Capacity Needed – Crude/Resid to Diesel Courtesy : Purvin and Gertz Inc.
Deficit of Diesel/Gasoil in Middle East/North Africa (MENA) Market Outlets Europe and Asia Pacific (Deficit)/Surplus, Mt
Diesel Fuel Sulfur Levels MENA August 2008 5000/ ~2010 50 / 2016 = 10 / 2013 10 / 2010 10 / 2013 50 / 2010 10 / 2012 5000 / ~2010 Middle East diesel sulfur specifications are tightening (limit ppm S/year) Sources: www.unep.org (2008 specs) and Wood Mackenzie (future specs)
Hydroprocessing as the Bridging Technology • Challenges 2020-2050 similar to Chevron’s history • Convert heavy, contaminated feedstocks to clean products economically, efficiently – led to “hydroprocessing” technology • Even the non-conventionals need hydroprocessing • Need continuing application and innovation of hydroprocessing as bridging, transitional refining technology to address shifts in supply/demand, public policy, ramp up of non-conventional-derived fuels • Moderated by capital, GHG ‘costs’
How Hydroprocessing Fits In:An Upgrading Refinery Refineries use hydroprocessing to: • Meet product quality specifications on transportation fuels • Upgrade heavier oil into desired, clean fuels or feedstocks • Remove contaminants to feed downstream units, e.g., for lubricants, Petrochemicals • Transition to process non-conventional feedstocks, e.g., Coal to liquids derived, bio-mass derived oils • New technologies such as Chevron’s VRSH increase liquid yield
Hydroprocessing Technology for Downstream Performance • Chevron has built broad capability in processing heavy, high-contaminant crudes and residuum to clean products • US Refineries – Over 40 years of hydroprocessing with more than 40 units currently operating • UK Refinery – Innovative processing techniques for processing difficult crudes • S. Korea Refinery – Upgrading to increase flexibility, reduce crude cost, and upgrade to diesel and lubricant base oils with advanced hydroprocessing, including ISOCRACKING, ISODEWAXING and LC-FINING technologies • Through JVs, Chevron markets hydroprocessing technologies and catalysts
Hydroprocessing Technologies marketed by Chevron’s Joint-Ventures
Announced Capacity Increases May Solve Most of the ME HCR Capacity Shortage Future Mid-East hydroprocessing capability will grow to meet Global needs
Innovation Drives Performance VRSH – Refining’s Future • Vacuum Resid Slurry Hydrocracking (VRSH) technology - a unique resid conversion process for turning Vacuum Resid into high valued products • Converts nearly 100% vacuum resid into clean burning fuels • Yields high value products (>80% diesel and lighter & <20% VGO) • Liquid yield 115-120%, no coke • R&D pilot continues to improve the process and reduce technology risk • Focus on optimizing catalyst formulation & operating flexibility
Summary • Our comprehensive Environmental, Social and Health Assessment process applies leading technologies to reduce environmental, social and health impacts and risks from our activities • Upstream, Renewables, Refining Technology Developments for the Mid-East and Chevron will depend on: • Innovation • Leveraged strengths • Collaboration/Partnerships