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Use of Flood Propagation Models for Real-Time Hydrologic Forecasting

This study explores the experiences of using flood propagation models in real-time hydrologic forecasting in the Segura River. It includes preliminary studies, fundamental hydraulic studies, analysis with physical models, and analysis based on numerical modeling. The findings provide insights into the operational needs and suitable solutions for accurate flood forecasting.

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Use of Flood Propagation Models for Real-Time Hydrologic Forecasting

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  1. USE OF FLOOD PROPAGATION MODELS IN REAL TIME HYDROLOGIC FORECAST.EXPERIENCES AT SEGURA RIVER ANGEL LUIS ALDANA VALVERDE Dr. Civil Engineer Centro de Estudios Hidrográficos (Hydrographic Studies Center) CEDEX-Centro de Estudios y Experimentación de Obras Públicas (Center for Studies and Experimentation on Public Works) SAIH and hydrological forecasting

  2. Study and application area 65 km aprox. of Segura river SAIH and hydrological forecasting

  3. SAIH Segura SAIH and hydrological forecasting

  4. PRELIMINARY STUDIES • First step: go more deeply into the knowledge of the application area • Different modeling techniques: • Hydrological • Hydraulics • Steady state numerical models • Unsteady state numerical models • Dynamic wave models • Simplified models • Physical/scale models SAIH and hydrological forecasting

  5. Fundamental hydraulic studies • Analysis of real events: • Basis for the knowledge about the problem and the studies needed to achieve solutions SAIH and hydrological forecasting

  6. Fundamental hydraulic studies • Phenomena or singularities which • cannot be simulated with numerical models with enough accuracy • require good knowledge about their behavior Analysis with physical models SAIH and hydrological forecasting

  7. Fundamental hydraulic studies • Analysis to • Improve the knowledge about the problem • Achieve the most appropriate/suitable solution Analysis based on Numerical modeling SAIH and hydrological forecasting

  8. EDIMACHI-PROC Segura: Defining the solution • Analysis: • Operational needs in the use of numerical models • Findings from basic studies • Comparison among several numerical models • Conclusions: • It is not necessary to consider the rainfall-runoff transformation at basins placed downstream from the chosen gauging stations. • The simplified models provide enough accuracy to a forecast time of 6 hours and an average error of water levels less than 20 cm at Segura river. • The variability of hydraulic characteristics of the river through the time, including during a flood, can make inadvisable the use of dynamic wave models the most of the times. • Doubled input rating curves and interactive tools are necessary. The second ones are used to modify the simple rating curves in real time. SAIH and hydrological forecasting

  9. EDIMACHI-PROC Segura: Main characteristics • Pre-processing of measured data • Modification of rating curves • Predefined rating curves • Rating curves as a function of the roughness • Three flood propagation methods SAIH and hydrological forecasting

  10. EDIMACHI-PROC Segura: Application cases • 1997 • 2000 • 2001 • 2003 SAIH and hydrological forecasting

  11. More information at Hydraulic and hydrology numerical modeling Hydraulic Laboratory Hydrographic Studies Center http://hercules.cedex.es/hidraulica/English SAIH and hydrological forecasting

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