MSG Products Development

1. MSG Products Development Marianne König and MSG Team

2. Development Work: Operational MPEF Products (1) Ongoing improvement of existing operational products Scenes and Cloud Analysis Atmospheric Motion Vectors Global Instability Indices Total Ozone Active Fire Detection Humidity Products Divergence* All Sky Radiance* *No new development since 2007

3. Development Work: New Products (2) Development work for new MSG products Aerosol Product Cloud Properties Volcanic Ash Detection Outgoing Longwave Radiation Cloud Trajectories+ +On hold following SWG recommendation

4. Definition of MSG “Day-2” Products (STG in 2001) Global Divergence Fields Cloud Trajectories All Sky Radiance Optimal Cloud Analysis (Cloud Microphysics) Aerosol Optical Depth over Ocean Aerosol Optical Depth over Land Wild Fire: Fire Detection and Fire Radiative Energy Outgoing Longwave Radiation

5. Boundary Conditions Development work is done completely outside operational MPEF Dedicated MET computer system Development mostly confined to “good cases” Long term monitoring of results normally not possible

6. Scenes and Cloud Analysis (SCE and CLA) SCE: Multi-Spectral Thresholding Technique – Cloud Detection Cloud detection has reached a mature stage: 2009 Cloud Workshop dealt with inter-comparisons of cloud masks, produced by different centres: MET prototype SCE results and NWC-SAF cloud mask were regarded as the most “complete” product Some detailed tuning being done (sun glint definition, low sun conditions with high reflectance …) Comment John Eyre: “Recent comparisons between the Met Office cloud mask and NWC-SAF cloud mask suggest that the two have comparable skill … “ Sorry! Met Office cloud mask will be added to the document.

7. Cloud Workshop Results for Cloud Mask (QC filtered)

8. Scenes and Cloud Analysis (SCE/CLA) • CLA: pixel-based height assignment (using various semi-transparency correction options), semi-transparency flag, cloud phase • Outstanding problem: Identification of multi-layer cloud situations (not conclusive at the moment, will be further pursued in 2010) • Asset: A-Train Validation Software allows extensive comparison

9. Dust Storm Detection dust dust (cloud) land sea New Development within SCE/CLA: Threshold tests on IR8.7, IR108., IR12.0 (also VIS over sea)

10. Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) Issue of Height Assignment and future development Presented to SWG in EUM/STG-SWG/22/07/DOC/08 and EUM/STG-SWG/25/08/DOC/08 Specific recent work in height assignment: Usage of image elements, which contributed to the wind tracking step, for the height assignment (CCC method): MPEF-LTV tests were done in 2009 using the CLA results for these pixels: 2 4-week test periods with different settings within the CLA height assignment MET tests are ongoing using the OCA results for these pixels

11. Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) Result of the new height assignment tests: Extensive analysis of the results is summarised in a report (EUM/OPS/TEN/09/4068) Some results: The new height assignment always produces a height, i.e. there is a higher number of AMVs and a higher number of AMVs with QI > 0.80 Comparison to radiosondes: there are many more collocations (comparison thus difficult)

12. Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) Two different test periods with two different settings of the CLA height assignment (IR/WV and CO2), CO2 method gives slightly better statistics NWP assimilation (ECMWF): forecast impact difficult to assess (short period), but definitely not “detrimental”

13. Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) Advantages of CCC method: No “tuning” – i.e. a physically sound method which can be applied to any instrument; also makes AMV software much more maintainable Method will automatically lead to an error estimate for heights: A number n of pixels are used for the height assignment, each pixel having its own individual cloud height – a simple weighted standard deviation over these n pixels would be a first estimate of the AMV height error.

14. Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) 10th International Winds Workshop Discussion: IWW encouraged to continue work on the CCC based HA, continue validation (e.g. A-Train, radiosondes) Users (NWP) appreciate the proposed strategy for a height error estimate Assimilation tests should be based on typically 3 months of data (TBC) CCC method usage: operational at JMA, in testing mode at CMA, in preparation at KMA

15. Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) Comment Niels Bormann: (1) How to interpret the results – less tuning in the new method? (2) A one-month period is too short to draw a robust conclusion for a minor change (minor compared to the unchanged rest of the observing network and assimilation system) Comments John Eyre: Further development supported, esp. OCA and height error estimate CCC raises some issues, particularly with low level winds. CCC also makes us more dependent on pixel based cloud heights Note from Mary Forsythe (IWW chair): “At IWW10 we are allowing some time for discussion on improving the process for testing and implementing operational changes to the AMV derivation. The aim is to produce guidelines, which will be attached to the IWWG web page. We and ECMWF agreed that we would like to see EUMETSAT undertake more thorough testing (particularly comparisons to ECMWF model background) before passing to ECMWF for final evaluation”

16. Global Instability Indices (GII) Development work practically finished Progress reported to SWG on many meetings Physical retrieval in operational MPEF Ongoing validation work with GII user community in the framework of the Convection Working Group Development: Inclusion of more detailed surface emissivity and full retrieval of TOZ within the same framework "GII+“, TOZ retrieval also possible over low clouds Linearisation of the problem, i.e. RTM calculations only at model grid points, interpolation to pixel location Development: Inclusion of IASI profiles – first tests here ongoing (not for operational implementation, but preparation for IRS)

17. Global Instability Indices (GII) GII+ (and linearised) available as a prototype and handed over to OPS Linearised version extensively compared to baseline Linearised version means loss of retrievals which need more than one iteration (for GII, these are typically <<0.5% of the cases)

18. Global Instability Indices (GII) • Comment from Niels Bormann: • Use of RTM calculations only at model grid points for the GII appears to be a major scientific as well as technical change. Implications? • Possibilities for MTG-IRS processing?

19. Total Ozone (TOZ) Is now included in the combined GII-TOZ processing. TOZ retrievals over low clouds possible. Surface emissivity (especially Sahara) remains a problem. Current MPEF TOZ New TOZ (within GII, linearised version) KNMI / NASA OMI composite

20. Active Fire Detection (FIR) Status: Active Fire Detection is an MPEF product (presented to STG-SWG-27 as Short Information) No further development done / planned

21. Humidity Products (TH) • Status: • MSG UTH product is a heritage of first generation Meteosat (WV6.2) • MSG MTH derived in a similar way, using WV7.3 • Alternative / additional approach: • Layer Precipitable Water Product – directly available from the GII retrievals (e.g. recommendation of the Convection Workshop to make at least low level precipitable water available); in line with presented GII update

22. Aerosol Products • AER – over ocean, LDA – over land • 2 different algorithms: • AER is a look-up table approach using single channels ("Ignatov" method) • LDA is a full OE retrieval (EUM/STG-SWG/25/08/DOC/07) • Development: • LDA V2 to generate hourly values • No further development for the AER product • Suggestion (e.g. for MTG): use the OE type of algorithm for both land and sea

23. Cloud Product (OCA) Derivation of cloud properties (height, phase, optical depth, effective particle size) using an optimal estimation approach Underlying concept presented to SWG-18 Latest developments: 2 science studies kicked off in 2007: (1) OCA Validation Study (in 2008 – finished)(2) OCA Cloud Model Study (2008-2009) OCA Results included in the 2009 Cloud Workshop MET prototype fully functional for daylight, stable over night (but less experience concerning potential problems)

24. Cloud Product (OCA) • Extensive validation against the A-Train observations highlighted a number of problem areas: • VIS channel calibration • IR3.9 fit quality (due to strong across-band variability in transmission, solar constant, cloud reflectivity) – RTTOV update, special solar transmission model • Specific outcome of cloud model study: • Strategy to extend OCA to two-layer cloud situations – development work to get this fully functional and tested is needed in 2010 and beyond • Usage in AMV height assignment ongoing • Operational implementation is ongoing and needs substantial support from MET

25. Cloud Product (OCA) Comments from John Eyre: Proposed work supported Draw attention to the aspects of the Met Office cloud height retrieval scheme which prevent the cloud top being assigned to an unstable layer. This has the effect of preventing the assignment of some boundary cloud to above the inversion. (Contact Pete Francis)

26. Volcanic Ash Cloud Detection (VOL) Status: Detection of volcanic dust in the atmosphere using IR8.7, IR10.8, IR12.0, during daylight also IR3.9 and VIS0.6 Operational version available. No further development planned.

27. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Status: Simple narrow band to broadband regression scheme for OLR was presented to SWG-19 No further development planned. Comment John Eyre: As GERB will not be continued on MTG, SEVIRI and its MTG follow-on will be the primary climate record of the diurnal variation of OLR. We suggest that plans for this product will be reconsidered with this in mind.

28. Convective Initiation (CI) • Not in the list of official Day-2 Products, but: • Latest research activities (led by US) have shown the good potential of satellite data to provide early warnings on the evolution of possibly severe convective storms. • High interest was expressed by Convection Working Group. • Work on CI also paves the way to a potentially major nowcasting application of MTG including FCI, IRS, LI

29. Convective Initiation (CI) • Status: • Prototype code for MSG exists together with validation results (CI Validation Study), using MSG image data as “interest fields” • Research is being done (external study) to quantitatively assess the added value of cloud microphysical parameters (through OCA) for early CI warnings • No further development planned for 2010.

30. Satellite Inter-Calibration • Ongoing development in the framework of GSICS – see EUM/STG-SWG/26/09/DOC/05 • Meteosat-IASI inter-calibration routinely available from EUM web site • MSG-AIRS, IASI-HIRS, MSG-HIRS, MFG-HIRS under development • NWP Bias Monitoring Study ongoing • Development coordinated through GSICS Research Working Group (e.g. more focus on inter-calibration of solar channels in 2010 and beyond) • GSICS User Workshop organised during EUMETSAT conference in Bath, followed by another Workshop during the Cordoba conference • Comment John Eyre: We strongly support this important activity.

31. Advanced Product Retrieval Strategy • Rationale: Optimal use of the spectral, spatial and temporal resolution of geostationary satellite data. • Started development on filtering and analysing retrieved fields of geophysical variables. • Work was not further pursued in 2009 because of lack of resources, but will be taken up again in 2010 and beyond (outlook for MTG). • Prerequisite was a setup of a long-term database (MSG data as best proxy for MTG, together with forecast data and RTM results)