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Analyzing Future Freight Challenges in Maryland Using Freight Data Sources and the Maryland Statewide Transportation Mod

Analyzing Future Freight Challenges in Maryland Using Freight Data Sources and the Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM). Presented by: Subrat Mahapatra Maryland State Highway Administration Presented to:

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Analyzing Future Freight Challenges in Maryland Using Freight Data Sources and the Maryland Statewide Transportation Mod

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  1. Analyzing Future Freight Challenges in Maryland Using Freight Data Sources and theMaryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM) Presented by:Subrat MahapatraMaryland State Highway Administration Presented to: Second SHRP2 Symposium onInnovation in Freight Demand Modeling and Data ImprovementOctober 22, 2013

  2. Presentation Outline • Freight Movement in Maryland • Freight Policies & Performance Measurement • Freight Supply and Demand Analysis Tools • Performance-Based Planning and Programming Approach • Data and Research Needs

  3. Acknowledgements • Sabyasachee Mishra, University of Memphis • Mark Radovic, Gannett Fleming, Inc • Keith Kucharek, MD SHA • Debbie Bowden, MDOT • Janie Tiedeman, URS Corp

  4. Freight Movement in Maryland

  5. About Maryland • Small mid-atlantic state on the east coast of US (42nd in area) • Ranked 19th in Population, 5th in Density (5.8 million people, 2010) • US in microcosm with diverse geography • 39 tons of freight per person terminates in Maryland every year

  6. About Maryland Department of Transportation • MDOT and its five modals oversee all aspects of major transportation in MD. • SHA operates, maintains and rebuilds the numbered, non-toll routes. • Two major transit systems: MTA in Baltimore and WMATA in the DC regionoffer great transit choices. • MDTA owns and operates the toll roads and bridges. • Port of Baltimore is the fastest growing port in US . • BWI Airport served 22.6 million people in 2012. • MVA takes care of vehicle licensing and registration

  7. Freight Movement in Maryland Freight Peak Period Congestion • Freight Movement is a critical emphasis area for MD’s economy and vitality • Thrust at federal, state and local level • Maryland’s freight transportation is estimated • To grow about 105% by 2035 • 1.4 billion of total tons • 4.98 trillion of $ value transfer (108% increase from 2006) • Sustainability of MD corridors to meet the future demand 2007 2040

  8. Freight Movement in Maryland • Maryland has a diversified freight cargo profile. • Freight activity in Maryland is expected to double by 2030. * Northeast: CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, RI,VT Southeast: FL, GA, NC, SC Note: 2030 values are in parenthesis

  9. External and Internal Freight by Mode Freight Movement in Maryland

  10. Maryland FAF Zones and Distribution Centers by County Freight Movement in Maryland Source: Port of Baltimore

  11. Freight Policies and Performance Measurement

  12. Freight Policy and Performance • Maryland's economy moves on a balanced freight network. • Ensure that highways, railways, waterways, and airports can handle current level and anticipated growth of goods movement • The Statewide Freight Plan provides a lynchpin for all of the modal freight plans • SHA/MDTA’s Freight Implementation Plan • MTA’s freight railStrategic Plan • Port of Baltimore Business Plan • Maryland Freight System Annual Report

  13. Freight Policy & Performance – Broader Questions Freight Flows (In/Out/Through MD) • What is the projected demand and how to accommodate it? (increased population, economic activity, new distribution centers etc.) • Investments in multiple modes (offer choices) • Improve connectivity between freight modes(distribution and transfer center locations) • Level of Transportation Investments • Limited Funding Scenario • – invest in low cost high benefit projects strategically • – focus on reliability thru’ ITS, incident mgmt. • High Funding Scenario (System Expansion)

  14. Freight Policy & Performance – Levels of Decision-Making • Policy Level • freight modes and mode shares • broader impacts of economy and freight flows • location of terminals and distribution centers • transportation infrastructure needs • Project Level • design and implement projects to meet current/ future needs • capacity enhancements • Operational • hours and routes for safe and efficient operations • small scale geometric improvements • bottleneck reduction

  15. Transportation Infrastructure & Performance Auto and Truck VMT Trends in MD 2012 Annual User Costs

  16. Transportation Infrastructure & Performance Mobility reliability Bottlenecks

  17. Freight Supply/ Demand Analysis Tools

  18. Analysis Tools - Statewide Transportation Model National Through Trips Internal Trips Trips to/ from MD Statewide MSTM 3-Tiered Approach Multi-layer travel demand model working at national, statewide and regionallevelsto forecast and analyze key measures of transportationsystem performance. Local

  19. Freight Modeling Process • Bi-level modeling of freight • National level (flows in/ out/ thru’ MD) • Statewide level (flows inside MD) • FHWA Freight Analysis Framework 3 Commodity Flow Data Used • Commodity Flows allocated to sub-county level origin-destinations • Flows on highways converted from TONS to TRUCKS using payload factors The model distinguishes • Commercial Vehicles • Medium-Heavy Duty Trucks • Heavy-Heavy Duty Trucks

  20. Freight Modeling Process Truck trips are generated by • Industrial Employment • Retail Employment • Office Employment • Households • Employment and Households by zones are used as truck generators, and a gravity model is used to distribute truck trips. • Long distance trucks, local trucks and commercial vehicles assigned to the highway network by time of day Truck Productions

  21. MSTM Applications – Freight Movement • Truck VMT will increase by 61% • Truck Through Trips will increase from 23% to 34% • Truck Hours of Delay will increase by 70%

  22. MSTM Applications – Freight Mode Choice Leaving MD Group 1 Logistic regression models for different OD and Commodity Groups Identify parameters and elasticity to understand supply/ demand impacts Group 2 Arriving in MD Group3 Within MD

  23. MSTM Applications – Freight Scenarios The statewide model can be applied to study a variety on policy scenarios, such as • Pricing • Zoning • Infrastructure improvements • Changes in economy • External variables Growth in Port of Baltimore Origins of Trucks Using I-95at Susquehanna River Donnelly, R. & Moeckel, R. (2013) “Freight mode choice models: a meta-analysis”, Transportation Research Part E, in preparation.

  24. Port of Baltimore Access Improvements Study Use of traffic simulation model to evaluate local and system level impacts of freight projects • System Efficiency • Effective for phasing/ staging of projects • Before/ After Analysis

  25. Performance Based Planningand Programming Approaches PROJECT IDENTIFICATION/IMPLEMENTATION - SHORT TERM PROJECTS (local/ spot improvements) - LONG TERM PROJECTS (corridor wide/ regional improvements)

  26. Freight Planning Process County Priority Letters Stakeholder Input MDOTStatewideFreight Plan • Identify freight “hot spots” • Identify projects to address them • Screen the projects to determine which onesare feasible • Create short andlong term plans • Incorporate intoSHA process Previous Studies Highway Needs Inventory Screening Criteria PotentialImprovementProjects Evaluation Concepts Short-Term Implementation Plan Long-Term ImplementationPlan Freight Implementation Planning Process

  27. Short-Term Implementations for Truck Travel • Annual Average Daily Traffic • Annual Average Daily Truck Traffic • Percentage Trucks • Truck related crashes • Proximity to distribution and intermodal centers • Truck Parking Locations • Safety, congestion, geometric and community impacts from stakeholders Annual Average Daily Truck Traffic Freight Hot Spots – High Scores

  28. GIS Spatial Analysis • Migrate data into centralized location, classify each factor on a scale 0 - 4 • Assign each roadway segment a “score” using weighted factors • Review hot spots for State Routes, US Routes, and Interstates

  29. Ongoing and Upcoming Steps • Continue working on various MDOT/ SHA Freight Initiatives • Policy Analysis • Identify bottlenecks and analyze improvements • Track transportation system performance 4. I-95 SB Welcome Center project funded & under construction • Work with Modals/ MPO/ locals and other stakeholders to support modeling and analysis needs for freight transportation decision-making

  30. Data and Research Needsfrom a State DOT Perspective • Use distribution center and truck flow data • Freight mode choice analysis capabilities • Looking at the supply chain aspects (door to door) • Incorporate reliability elements in decision-making

  31. Data and Research Needs - DOT Standpoint How do we identify and define freight bottlenecks? How do we quantify impacts of transportation investments on freight travel? What is the freight industry telling us and how it impacts transportation decision-making? How can we improve our policies, programs and projects for safe, reliable and efficient freight movement Together, Freight Moves…

  32. Together, Freight Moves…Thank You !! Contact Information: Subrat Mahapatra Office of Planning and Preliminary Engineering MD State Highway Administration Baltimore, MD smahapatra@sha.state.md.us 410-545-5649

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