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Income Stabilisation Crisis risk and incomplete data Frontis seminar Wageningen UR, in cooperation with IRMA The Hague,

Income Stabilisation Design and economic impact of risk management tools Second project meeting, with attendance of steering committee The Hague, 30-31 January 2006.

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Income Stabilisation Crisis risk and incomplete data Frontis seminar Wageningen UR, in cooperation with IRMA The Hague,

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  1. Income StabilisationDesign and economic impact of risk management toolsSecond project meeting, with attendance of steering committeeThe Hague, 30-31 January 2006 Income StabilisationCrisis risk and incomplete dataFrontis seminar Wageningen UR, in cooperation with IRMAThe Hague, 30 January 2006

  2. Income stabilisation in European agriculture

  3. Income StabilisationDesign and economic impact of risk management tools Project presentation Ruud Huirne, Miranda Meuwissen, Marcel van Asseldonk Wageningen UR

  4. Outline • Background • Goal of project • Project partners • Steering committee • Project description by workpackage • Role of steering comittee

  5. Background • Framework 6 (1.1): Modernisation and sustainability of agriculture and forestry • Changing risks • Pressure for private market solutions • Role for the EC • Comparison with USA and Canada • Potential incentive problems • Suggestions from literature: limited, transparent, simple & only for catastrophic losses

  6. Goal of project • A list of concrete policy options for (crisis) risk management • Including recommendations for design and implementation

  7. Project partners • Wageningen UR: LEI, IRMA • Rheinische Frierich Wilhelms Universitat Bonn • Universidad Politecnica de Madrid • SzkolaGlowna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego Warschau • Szent Istvan University Godollo • NV Interpolis

  8. Steering committee • Stakeholders: • Government • (Re)insurance companies • Farmers’ organisation • Science

  9. Project description (1): overview • Risk exposure • Historic data (WP2/LEI) • Simulation of CAP/WTO scenarios (WP3/Warschau) • Risk management experience and perception • Review (WP4/Madrid) • Farmers’ perceptions (WP5/Godollo) • Prospective risk management instruments • Economic impact (WP6/IRMA) • Policy options (WP7/Bonn) • Closing workshop (WP8/Bonn)

  10. Project description (2): historic data • Crop & livestock • Established & new member states • Large scale & small scale farms • Farm data & off-farm income • Volatility & catastrophically low price, production and income levels

  11. Project description (3): CAP/WTO scenarios • Future scenarios • Risk exposure (price, production, income) • Risk management opportunities & allowed forms of income stabilizing tools • Farm-level simulation • Income volatility • Crisis risk

  12. Project description (4): review • Historic, current & developing schemes • EU & non-EU • On-farm & risk-sharing • Private & public(-private) • Successes & failures • Loss ratio’s, participation, budgetary implications, degree of risk reduction, reported incentive issues • Opportunities for prospective (crisis) risk management

  13. Project description (5): farmers’ perceptions • Risk exposure & (new) risk management tools • Established & new member states • Crop & livestock • Large scale & small scale farms

  14. Project description (6): economic impact • Impact of prospective risk management tools at farm level and at the level of (EU and national) governments • Farm: whole-farm model • Government: simulation model

  15. Project description (7): policy options • Synthesis of previous parts: • Farmers’ current and future (perceived) risk exposure • Experience of other countries • Economic impact of allowed forms of risk management tools

  16. Project description (8): closing workshop • Finetuning of policy options with stakeholders

  17. Role of steering committee • Month 10, 24, (33) • To assess and advise on the practicalrelevance of individual workpackages and overall project outcomes!

  18. To do today …… • Risk exposure • Historic data (WP2/LEI) • Simulation of CAP/WTO scenarios (WP3/Warschau) • Risk management experience and perception • Review (WP4/Madrid) • Farmers’ perceptions (WP5/Godollo) • Prospective risk management instruments • Economic impact (WP6/IRMA) • Policy options (WP7/Bonn) • Closing workshop (WP8/Bonn)

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