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South East European Climate Change Scenarios and Impact Study

Explore regional climate change scenarios and their impact on various sectors such as energy, hydrology, agriculture, and environment in South East Europe. Get detailed downscaling projections and access valuable climate data and long-range forecasts.

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South East European Climate Change Scenarios and Impact Study

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  1. Regional climate change scenarios: Products and services of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre Vladimir DjurdjevicSouth East European Virtual Climate Change Centre

  2. Political agreementUNECE “Environment for Europe”2007 WMO RA VI RCC-Network WCRP (CORDEX, …) UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme SEEVCCC Background - Enhancing sub-regional SEE cooperation in climate related issues SEEVCCC + SEE CCFAP (Action Plan) Adaptation Partners Under consideration NMHSs, R&D inst., … MoUs Bulgaria MoE-Serbia REC CIMA Israel Malta University of Belgrade Oxford Geo-Modelling RGGM EMC, Turkey FYROM BiH MNE SRB DMCSEE, Slovenia ALB

  3. Climate change scenarios: • Downscaling of SINTEX-G (INGV) • Coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University – Princeton Ocean Model) A1B: 2001-2030 A1B: 2071-2100 A2: 2071-2100

  4. Climate change scenarios: Annual temperature and precipitation change: A1B: 2001-2030 A1B: 2071-2100 A2: 2071-2100

  5. ● Example of RCM-SEEVCCC climate projections application • ● Regional dynamical downscaling provides information with more details about • present climate and future climate changes. • ●Important for different impact studiesespecially on regional level: • energy, hydrology, agriculture, environmental protection, industry,.. • ●Summer Drying Problem (CLAVIER project) • It is well known that Climate models in region of Pannonian valley have significant BIAS, • therefore it is necessary to apply more complex BIAS correction for climate change impact. • ● Example: Application of Climate Projections in Vineyard Regions in Serbia • Subotica-Horgos • Srem • Banat • Sumadija • West Morava • Timok • Nisava-South Morava • Pocerac • Kosovo • Results for 2071-2100 (A2): • growing season: • beginning April → March • growing degree days 1440 → 2400 • duration 200 → 240 days • above tolerable warmer and dryer • rest season: • beginning one month later • first frost date ~15days later • number of frost days 90 → 50 • no appearance of critical temp. <-15C • Climate in present vineyard regions (<400m alt.) • Shifts on ~1000m altitude

  6. Some selected results… growing season start date growing degree days first autumn frost date first frost date beginning ending April 1.Nov. winter spring autumn winter March present climate Summary future climate 2400 growing season duration: 200 → 240 days number of frost days: 90 → 50 1400 growing degree days: 1400 → 2400 num. of days Tmin<-15C: 3 → 0 warmer, dryer! Mountain station ~1000m altitude enters the climate regime of present vineyard regions!

  7. Climate change scenarios: Impact study: Changes in droughts duration, magnitude & intensity

  8. WMO RA VI-Europe RCC Network SEEVCCC : ● Climate Data Node Lead: KNMI/Netherlands (consortium member SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia) South East European gridded model datasets for 1961-1990 (ready) ● Climate Monitoring Node Lead: DWD/Germany (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia) • collecting data from the stations (monthly, 400-500 stations; main source for data KNMI-ECA&D, other climate bulletins NCDC) • mean temperature and accumulated precipitation, • temperature anomaly and precipitation percent of normal, • all available monthly/three-monthly ● Long Range Forecast Node Lead: Météo-France & ROSHYDROMET (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia) Once a month ensemble run of a regional long range forecast - 7 months ahead: dynamical downscaling ECMWF 41 ensemble with RCM-SEEVCCC

  9. Climate Monitoring Node- Climate Watch Advisory for SEE - ● Example of the product : September 2010 Temperature anomaly Precipitation (percent of normal) ● available maps: for each month and for 3 months: ● mean 2m temperature, acc. precipitation, ● temperature anomaly, precipitation percent of normal (with respect to 1961-1990)

  10. Long Range Forecast Node - Seasonal forecast for SEE - ● Probabilistic forecast • provides statistical summary of the atmosphere and ocean state • in coming season. ●RCM-SEEVCCC LRF (Long Range Forecast–Seasonal Forecast) • regional dynamical downscaling using fully coupled atmosphere-ocean • Regional Climate Model • model start: 16th of each month • forecast duration: 7 months (~215 days) • model resolution: ~35km atmosphere ; ~20km ocean • model domain: Euro - Mediterranean region extended toward Caspian Sea • 41 ensemble members • initial and boundary conditions: ECMWF, resolution:125km • results prepared for South East European region in form of: • mean ensemble maps (mean 2m temperature, precipitation accumulation, temperature • anomaly and precipitation anomaly with respect to CRU data 1961-1990) • for month and three months (season) • diagrams (probabilistic forecast of mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation • accumulation for specific place)

  11. ● Example for LRF products Maps of ensemble mean Probabilistic Long Range Forecast Additional: SST anomaly

  12. Verification of LRF downscaling will be prepared during this spring Examples of preliminary resulat

  13. Data archived in MARS (ECMWF) in SEEVCCC • Seasonal forecast – ensemble long range forecast using RCM-SEEVCCC model • Regional 3 and 5 day forecast – using WFRNMM model • Dust forecast – with and without assimilation using DREAM model • Global forecast – using GNMMB model • Climate projections – for A1B and A2 scenarios using RCM-SEEVCCC model • Regional observations in BUFR format • Projects: Aral sea, Iran, Sintex-G, Hadley center climate simulations, etc. batch request5 Estimated number of fields: 1 retrieve, date=2010-11-21, time=12:00:00, stream=etad, step=12, levtype=pl, expver=1, class=ro, type=fc, param=130.128, levelist=7

  14. RCC Highly recommended functions (example): SEEVCCC Earth Modeling System NCEP NMMB atmospheric model ● global/regional/local ● hydrostatic/nonhydrostatic Aerosol ↔ radiation Aerosol ↔ cloud Ocean model • DREAM Dust • Sea salt • Carbon • Pollution HYPROM Hydrology model Fe and P nutrients

  15. R&D: Earth Modeling System ● NCEP/NMMB – Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid • Numerical Weather Prediction Model (NWPM) • Works on global, regional (res. ~10km) and local scales (res.~100m) • Valuable tool to perform simulations on any desirable resolution • quasi-operational in SEEVCCC on global and regional scales ● Atmospheric particles • Implementation of dust, sea salt, minerals and other atmospheric particles: • transport and their interactions with atmosphere and ocean • (influence on cloud formation, radiation, ocean flora and fauna,…) • for now dust component (DREAM) is prepared for implementation in NMMB ● Hydrology • Dynamical hydrology model is developed - HYPROM • simulation of hydrology cycle • HYPROM ready to be included into atmospheric driver NMMB ● Ocean • First action is to couple NMMB with ocean model • necessary because of large influence of sea on climate in the region

  16. ● Examples of Earth Modeling System components’ performance • NMMB global forecast against • ECMWF analysis • DREAM modification for purpose of • volcano ash transport simulation Eyjafjallajokull starting date: April 14th 2010 • HYPROM discharge forecast vs. observations • Moraca river – Podgorica sub-basin (2008)

  17. Operational dust forecast: DREAM ● DREAM8: Dust Regional Atmospheric Model with 8 categories for particle sizes • model runs: 12UTC start ; +72h forecast • model resolution: 1/3 degrees (~35km) • models: DREAM8 and DREAM8-assim (assimilation using ECMWF dust aerosol analysis) presented: model run from June 11th 2010 12UTC DREAM8 DREAM8 – assim

  18. SEEVCCC/CCFAP-A in support of UNFCCC implementation GFCS Both SEEVCCC functions, under WMO and UNFCCC, may be considered as follow-up actions of WCC-3 which are in line with further development and implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services established by the WCC-3 CCFAP-A available at: http://www.hidmet.gov.rs/CCFAP/CCFAP.pdf

  19. R&D: Earth Modeling System Climate Watch example – precipitation anomalies and extremes Example: Extremely wet SPI2 for February 2010, using LRF forecast (start January 1st 2010) New! Under development RCM-SEEVCCC ensemble forecast corrected LRF RCM-SEEVCCC ensemble forecast observed

  20. SEE RCOF – SEECOF • RHMS/SEEVCCC together with ARSO/DMCSEE + WMO: organization and implementation • SEEVCCC ready for full support with all climate products to submit to DMCSEE for their drought advisories • SEECOF-IV in November (22-26); preceded by on-line SEECOF (verification of consensus fcst)

  21. On-line SEECOF-III …. To be used in Pre-COF IV http://www.seevccc.rs/forum

  22. Facing Problems and Future Plans • setting up of sub-regional teams + CB • enhancing of sub-regional data exchange (data policy issue!) • use of other existing RCMs (RegCM4, PRECIS, etc.) • collaboration in further application and improvement of Climate Watch Advisory System • Research and Development Agenda in SEE – Meeting in 11-13 April 2011 • Task Team on RCOF - TT-RCOF …

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