Developing a Framework for Modeling and Simulating Aedes aegypti and Dengue Fever Dynamics

1. Developing a Framework for Modeling and Simulating Aedesaegypti and Dengue Fever Dynamics • Tiago Lima (UFOP), Tiago Carneiro (UFOP), Raquel Lana (Fiocruz), CláudiaCodeço (Fiocruz), RaianMaretto (INPE), Liliam Medeiros (UNESP), Leandro Silva (UFOP), Leonardo Santos (INPE), Isabel Reis (Fiocruz), Flávio Coelho (FGV), Antonio Miguel Monteiro (INPE)

2. Introduction Controlling dengue feverand its vector is a publichealthchallenge Diseasepresents a complex temporal-spatial dynamic - Meteorologicalvariables interfere in developmentalstagesofthevector - Social anddemographicaspects could help to increase dengue incidence - unplannedurbanization - precariousnessofgarbagecollectionandwatersupply

3. Introduction Severalmodelshavebeingdevelopedaiming to - understandthe dynamics ofvetor populationanddiseasetransmission - predictepidemicoutbreaks - analyze and evaluate the impact of control strategies - but they are not easily applicable to other contexts and studies There are some generic frameworks focusing on diseases spread on global scale we need solutions with focus on dengue and targeting local dynamics at intra-urban scales

4. Objectives A tool for helping the designing of site-specific and population-specific control strategies for dengue To reachthisgoal, a framework shouldprovide - integrationwith GIS - a collection of built in models - a modeling language that supports both population models and individual-based models - a friendly GUI for easy building and configuration - a flexible and extensible architecture to allow contribution from users DengueME (Dengue Modeling Environment) framework an open source tool aiming to support modeling and simulation of spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue fever and its vector

5. DengueME Framework: requirementsand design Framework should provides services to support the development of models and evaluation of intervention scenarios applied to real case studies supportcommunication with geographical databases enabledevelopmentofmulti-scalemodelsand use ofdifferentparadigms offer a common and easy to use language for model implementation offer a basic library of built-in models which can be customized and combined to generate specific models provide a friendly graphical user interface for creating, configuring and running built-in and user defined models extensible - enable adding of new models to its library

6. DengueME Framework: architecture

7. DengueMEarchitecture: TerraME TerraME - a software platform for environmentalmodelingandsimulation

8. DengueMEarchitecture: Models Dynamics of dengue is governed by a complex interaction between humans, mosquitoes, viruses, on a heterogeneous landscape Vector Models population dynamics of Aedesaegypti with differential equations modeling variation stock at each life stage under the influence of environmental carrying capacity and the climate Host Models demographic dynamic of the human population in the study area differential equations describing the stock of individuals or individual-based model Transmission Models Virus transmission process depends on the amount of susceptible and infected (people or mosquitoes)

9. DengueMEarchitecture: Models Mobility Models Describes the mobility and commutation of humans and vectors spread of viruses and vectors is facilitated by the flow of individuals from a no mobility or random mobility to a complex model based on real data Landscape Class Models Urban landscape interferes in the dynamics of dengue transmission as it introduces heterogeneity in the availability of breeding sites for Aedesaegypti landscape component provides a landscape classification model to describes the space from a homogeneousspace to sophisticatedtechniques for segmentation and classification

10. DengueMEarchitecture: VDE Potential end-users of DengueME are not experts in programming techiniques reducebarriers related to using programming languages and facilitate the framework utilization DengueME Visual DevelopmentEnvironment provide services to help users to perform the required steps for developing models and defining scenarios allowsto configure built-in or imported models helps to create scenarios through the selection and combination of sub-models and their parameterization

11. DengueMEarchitecture: VDE

12. DengueMEarchitecture: VDE

13. Results The work is under development - design and implementation of framework - build-inmodels - three vector models implemented and applied to a case study - a host and transmission models implemented and applied to a case study - visual development environment

14. Results Using DengueME to evaluate the impact of local interventions on dengue vector density

15. Results Using DengueME to study epidemic scenarios

16. Results

17. Results

18. Final remarks Despite the success of mathematical models in explaining Aedesaegypti spatial dynamics and dengue transmission, there is still a need to stimulate their use to assist the planning of dengue control interventions model reuse is still a challenge models and tools can not require experience in programming or great expertise in modeling development, database management and model-data integration it is required to understand the model assumptions to correctly use them DengueME framework services for modeling and simulation dynamics of dengue in urban environments a library of built in models a visual development environment that provides friendly graphical user interface an open and extensible architecture

19. Future works developing and incorporating new models into the framework enableadditionofnewmodels Model.lua Config.xml

20. Acknowledgments Questions? Suggestions?