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Conditional Climatology Tools

Conditional Climatology Tools. AvnFPS 3.2. Contributors. Contributors. Mike Graf (NWS Headquarters) Jerry Griffin (NWS Training Center) David Hotz (WFO Morristown, TN) Todd Lericos (WFO Caribou) Cammye Sims (WFO San Antonio) Mark Struthworf (WFO Salt Lake City)

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Conditional Climatology Tools

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  1. Conditional Climatology Tools AvnFPS 3.2

  2. Contributors

  3. Contributors • Mike Graf (NWS Headquarters) • Jerry Griffin (NWS Training Center) • David Hotz (WFO Morristown, TN) • Todd Lericos (WFO Caribou) • Cammye Sims (WFO San Antonio) • Mark Struthworf (WFO Salt Lake City) • Jeff Tongue (WFO New York City)

  4. Objectives • Describe Conditional Climatology • Definition • Benefits/Limitations • Discuss new AvnFPS 3.2 climatology tools • Wind Rose • CIG/VSBY Distributions • CIG/VSBY Trends • Discuss current forecast methods/limitations • Adding Conditional Climatology to the Forecast Toolkit • Interpret and apply the output • Case studies • Local case studies

  5. What is Conditional Climatology? • A distribution of variables now and in the future based on one or more given conditions. • Examples: • Pattern Recognition • Conceptual Models • Local Rules of Thumb • Forecaster Experience

  6. Role of Conditional Climatologyin Aviation Forecasting • 1960’s • Conditional Climatology Tables - USAF • 1970’s to present • Numerical models • MOS • 2000’s • Integration of CC back into the aviation forecast process

  7. Benefits of Conditional Climatology? • Guidance on event duration, intensity and trends • Limits over forecasting of rare events • Increases forecaster confidence • Better results than just using persistence forecasting or NWP/MOS guidance

  8. Limitations of Conditional Climatology • Can not be used alone! • Does not discriminate physical processes • May not be useful in extreme or rare weather events • Not fool proof

  9. Wind Rose Tool

  10. Applied Wind Rose

  11. CIG/VSBY Distribution Tool

  12. Why are we here?

  13. Why are we here?

  14. Why are we here? SOO Intern Lead General

  15. Why are we here? The SOO is killing me with all this Training SOO Intern Lead General

  16. CIG/VSBY Trend Tool

  17. How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

  18. How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

  19. How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

  20. How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

  21. How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

  22. How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

  23. What Tools Do you Use?

  24. What Tools Do you Use? • Current Observations • Satellite • MOS • Soundings / BUFKIT • Model Data • Local Studies • Advection • Convection • Persistence

  25. What Tools Do you Use? • Current Observations • Satellite • MOS • Soundings / BUFKIT • Model Data • Local Studies • Advection • Convection • Persistence

  26. Using NWP Model Data to forecast clouds

  27. Models • Relative Humidity??? • Model Clouds???

  28. Model Soundings?

  29. BUFKIT – RH and Clouds

  30. Relative Humidity = Clouds?

  31. Adding “Model” Clouds

  32. RH with respect to ICE or Water? RH With Respect to Water RH With Respect to Ice

  33. RH Time Section

  34. Model Clouds and Bases

  35. How good are NWPModels at predicting: • Moisture? • It’s Horizontal and Vertical Distribution? • Cloud Ceilings?

  36. Model Output Statistics! • Good idea. • Removes biases. • Adds Climatology.

  37. MAV MOS • Is the “Weather” in Caribou the same as State College PA or New York City? Is the Weather in Atlanta the same as San Antonio? • Regional Equations are used for Ceiling and Visibility Summer (Apr-Sept) Winter (Oct-Mar)

  38. MAV MOS • Model “Run time” plus 3 Hour Observation is Critical (03Z, 09Z, 15Z or 21Z) • Use the Ceiling and Visibility Category Probabilities.

  39. MOS - Ceiling and Visibility Category Probabilities.

  40. NGM MOS • Look at NGM Synoptic Pattern • Period of Record used for equation Development is Extensive • 02Z and 14Z Observations are critical

  41. We need more • Rules of thumb? • “in this situation, the cloud base “usually” remains IFR until late morning.” • CLIMATOLOGY!!! • “Conditional” Climatology

  42. Example18Z TAFJohn F. KennedyInternational Airport

  43. 17Z METAR • METAR KJFK 311651Z 14009KT 10SM BKN007 BKN250 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP226 T01940161

  44. Situation • SE Flow Prevails • When and How Low does the Ceiling and Visibility Go??

  45. 12Z NAM-eta(Fcst Hr = 05)Valid 17Z

  46. 15Z RUC(Fcst Hr = 02)Valid 17Z

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