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SEMCOG Forecast Process

SEMCOG Forecast Process. What is the SEMCOG Forecast? SEMCOG Forecast. A 30-year forecast of population by age, households by income and children, employment by sector, and land use change

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SEMCOG Forecast Process

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  1. SEMCOG Forecast Process

  2. What is the SEMCOG Forecast? SEMCOG Forecast • A 30-year forecast of population by age, households by income and children, employment by sector, and land use change • Forecasts changes by individual land parcel, so output can be added up by any political or planning jurisdiction

  3. How we Forecast SEMCOG Forecast • We collect data on person, household, and job characteristics from state and national surveys such as the U.S. Census • Add to that local data on the current and future development of land parcels • Add to that other data on transportation, crime, tax rates and other development drivers • And input this data into an urban simulation model named UrbanSim

  4. Forecast Data Input SEMCOG Forecast Regional Control Totals • Land Parcel and Tax Assessor Data: • Property Address and Owner • Property Class and Property Status • Current Zoning • Value of the Land and Structures • Recent Sales Data • Number and Age of Buildings • Number of Housing Units • Building Occupancy • Building Size (Square Feet and Stories) Jobs Data (ES-202): Business Establishments Employment by Type Households Data (Census): Persons, Workers, Children, Age, Race, and Income Future Land Use plans, Crime rates, Environmental constraints, and Property Tax rates UrbanSim Model • Travel Data: • Travel Time between Areas • Accessibility to Transit and Jobs

  5. No Structure 1939 or earlier 1940 - 1949 1950 - 1959 1960 - 1969 1970 - 1979 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1999 2000 - 2010 Year Built of Oldest Structure Wayne County

  6. Urban Simulation Model SEMCOG Forecast • Simulates the interactions between land use, transportation, and public policy • It forecasts future household and business locations based on market preferences and available real estate • Can model different policy assumptions, such as changes in housing vacancy, land regulation, or travel patterns

  7. How the Model Works SEMCOG Forecast • Regional Forecast Totals: • Population • Households • Employment • New and Moving: • Households • Businesses • Current Inventories: • Housing and Households • Buildings and Businesses • Land Development: • Prices Adjusted • New Houses • New Buildings

  8. Solving Problems Local Government Decisions School enrollment has been up slightly over the last few years. Should we build a new elementary school?

  9. Change in Population Ages 5 to 17 by School District Large loss (>2,000) Loss (501 to 2,000) Slight loss (0 to 500) Slight gain (1 to 500) Gain (501 to 2,500) School Age PopulationSoutheast Michigan School Districts, 2010-2020

  10. Solving Problems Local Government Decision Since the long term forecast for school age children is a decline over the 2010 level, no, a new school building is not needed. School enrollment has been up slightly over the last few years. Should we build a new elementary school?

  11. Solving Problems Local Government Decisions We have a grant to build a new community center. Should we build a sports recreation building or a senior center?

  12. Population Growth by Age GroupSoutheast Michigan, 2010-2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  13. Solving Problems Local Government Decision Since the long term forecast is for the senior population to nearly double while all other age groups decline, we should build a senior center. We have a grant to build a new community center. Should we build a sports recreation building or a senior center?

  14. Solving Problems SEMCOG Forecast • SEMCOG’s regional development forecast is designed to provide local elected officials the data needed to solve current planning issues • This is particularly important in a time of limited financial resources

  15. Wayne County Draft Forecast

  16. Wayne County Totals SEMCOG Forecast Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  17. Wayne County Trends SEMCOG Forecast Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  18. Loss of 28,400 HH Loss between 150 to 650 HH Loss of 150 HH to gain of 150 HH Gain between 150 and 1,001 HH Gain between 1,000 and 3,000 HH Modest Household GrowthChange in Households, Wayne County, 2010-2020 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  19. Loss greater than 15,000 persons Loss 3,001 to 15,000 persons Loss 301 to 3,000 persons 300 loss to 300 gain in persons Gain 301 to 1,500 persons Gain greater than 1,500 persons Population ChangeChange in Population, Wayne County, 2010-2020 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  20. Aging in Place Population Change by Age, Wayne County, 2010-2020 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  21. Changing Households Household Change, Wayne County, 2010-2040 22% Households 65 or older 34% 45% Households under 65, without children 38% 33% Households under 65, with children 28% Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  22. Employment Gains Five Largest Job Sectors, Wayne County, 2010-2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  23. Small loss (-26 to -247 jobs) Little change (-25 to 25 jobs) Small gain (26 to 250 jobs) Moderate gain (251 to 1,000 jobs) Large gain (more than 1,000 jobs) Employment by Community Change in Employment, Wayne County, 2010-2020 Blocked for Confidentiality Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  24. Local Review Process SEMCOG Forecast • Review draft community numbers • Get comments or additional information to SEMCOG staff by January 6, 2012 • Final community forecast will be complete and approved by March 2012 • Data and reports will be available on SEMCOG’s Web site shortly thereafter

  25. Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

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