SEMCOG Modeling Peer Exchange

1. SEMCOG Modeling Peer Exchange Panel Report

2. Overall Outline • Topic Definition • Planning Objective • Problem Statement • Basic Solution • Advanced Solution • Resources

3. Main Topics • Data Needs/Methods • Operations Modeling • Freight/Commercial Vehicles • Transit • Economic / Land Use

4. Data Needs/Methods • Definition: Raw data for performance measurement and model development. • Objective: Need for direct planning indicators and prediction tools. • Problem: Traditional methods are becoming too expensive and unreliable. • Basic: Continue data collection for performance measurement and validation. • Advanced: Explore new paradigms for effective data collection designed specifically for advanced modeling needs.

5. Operations Modeling • Definition: Dynamic Traffic Assignment at multiple scales of granularity and analysis precision • Objective: Desire to analyze Construction zones, incident management, traffic flow, intersection, signal time • Problem: Static assignment isn’t intended to measure actual traffic flows. • Basic: Static assignment is a good tool but needs good validation and post processing. • Advanced: True Network microsimulation requires ABM integration for valid supply and demand analysis. • Resources: Investigate DTA platforms (DynusT, MATSIM, TRANSIMS, DynaSmart). Internal expertise and interest desirable, but will require consulting/university support.

6. Freight Modeling • Definition: Commodity flows analysis. Logistics and Supply Chain modeling Heavy Commercial Vehicle movements. • Objective: Explain the economics of the freight industry and its relation to the manufacturing base. • Problem: True Freight modeling is undeveloped. Traditional methods of Truck triptable preparation are wrong. • Basic: Continue with robust data collection program and use to develop synthetic truck triptables. Examine use of statewide model and expand (inter)national sensitivity if needed. • Advanced: Adopt a freight analysis construct that incorporates supply chain and logistics analysis, multiple freight modes and specialized network microsimulation.

7. Public Transit • Definition: Demand for public transit modes. Ridership estimates. • Objective: Promote alternative to automobile. Provide mobility to populations in need. • Problem: Transit share is so small, elaborate modeling procedures may not be warranted. • Basic: Keep mode choice simple. • Advanced: Identify travel market segments more fully and develop specific models in an ABM context. This means moving toward population synthesis and microsimulation.

8. Economic and Land Use • Definition: The spatial dynamics of social and economic change. • Objective: Understand the outcomes of policy actions oriented toward fundamental change. • Problem: Travel demands models are not fully integrated with Land Use and Economic prediction tools • Basic: Use demand model accessibility to identify future land use potential (sketch level). • Advanced: Develop a economic and land use simulation that is sensitive to declines and shifts in economic relationships (dynamic).

9. Equity (Fairness) • Definition: individual benefits and burdens associated with public actions. • Objective: Demonstrate that public actions are equitably distributed across the region. • Problem: Modeling tools are used to predict the distribution of benefits • Basic: Develop a broad range of metrics intended to communicate and educate audience on the dimensions of the topic. • Advanced: Orient ABM development to rigorously track equity indicators at the person level.