National Security vs. Energy Independence in Israel

1. National Security vs. Energy Independence in Israel MK MG (Res.) Professor Isaac Ben-Israel 21 May 2008 Tel-Aviv University Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

2. Some Immediate Observations • Israel has no oil. • Israel’s energy supply is completely dependent on import. • Israel is surrounded by Arab countries with only one open border: the Mediterranean Sea. • The Middle East is the main supplier of oil to the world. Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

3. Two Basic Strategic Problems • Can Israel survive a war? • CanIsrael be independent (energy-wise)? • Can Israel accumulate enough energy reserves for emergency periods? • Can Israel stand against the “oil weapon” operated by the Arab oil producers? Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

4. Can Israel be energy independent? • Through renewable fuels: Not really, only relatively • Nuclear Energy • Possible Solution: Short wars Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

5. Are renewable energy, bio-fuels etc. not important for Israel Security? • It can decrease Israel dependence on import • It can reduce Arab global oil influence Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

6. “We have a unique military problem – we are few while our enemies are many... and the number -- you know, is a major military factor, usually a decisive factor. So what helped us to survive till now and what will help us in the future? Only our qualitative advantage.” David Ben-Gurion, Uniqueness and Mission, 1948, page 43. David Ben-Gurion (1948) Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

7. Israel in the Middle East – Some Ratios • Israel vs. its direct neighbors: 1/15 • Israel vs. Arab world: 1/40 • Israel vs. Moslem World: 1/200 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

8. The True Aim of Warfare "War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will… Force is thus the means of war; to impose our will on the enemy is its object. To secure that object we must render the enemy powerless; and that, in theory, is the true aim of warfare“ (Clausewitz, On War, Book 1, Chap.1). Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

9. Three Objectives "What is meant by disarming a country? We should at once distinguish between three things, three broad objectives, which between them cover everything: the armed forces, the country, and the enemy's will" (Book 1, Chap 2). Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

10. A Rhetorical Question Can Israel have a victory over Egypt? • Can it destroy its forces? • Can it occupy its territory? • Can it break the will of the Egyptian people? Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

11. What is a "Victory”? • 1967 – A clear and cut victory of Israel in the Six Days War. • 1969 – Egypt launches the Attrition War. • 1973 – Egypt and Syria surprise Israel in Yom Kippur War. Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

12. The Concept of “Rounds” • Small countries cannot achieve final victory over bigger ones. • Hence, “victory” should be understood in a context of military “rounds” (e.g. the Six Days War, Yom Kippur, Peace for Galilee) • In each “round” the enemy must be disarmed, i.e., put in such a condition that it can no longer carry on the fight. • The duration of a “round” < few weeks Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

13. Interim Conclusions • Wars should be short (“rounds”) • Each round must be won decisively Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

14. “We have a unique military problem – we are few while our enemies are many... and the number -- you know, is a major military factor, usually a decisive factor. So what helped us to survive till now and what will help us in the future? Only our qualitative advantage.” David Ben-Gurion, Uniqueness and Mission, 1948, page 43. Decisive Victory David Ben-Gurion (1948) Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

15. What is our “Qualitative Edge”? “Our human resources in general are no worse than any other country, with our moral and intellectual ability far exceeding our neighbors. This is our chief advantage. And for now it is virtually our only one. To exploit their role fully … they must be armed and equipped … with full exploitation of all innovative scientific and technological conquests for our defense.” David Ben-Gurion, Uniqueness and Mission, 1948, page 13. Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

16. The Right Priorities “It does not even require mentioning that we must include scientific, technological and electronic development of innovative weapons at the top of our investment priorities.”Yigal Alon, Integrated Tools, page 103. Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

17. Israel’s inherent advantages • Education • Combat experience • Small is beautiful • The synergetic combination of hi-tech and skilled people Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

18. The secret: Academic Reserves Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

19. The Basic Problem Industry ? Inventors R&D Centers Academy Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

20. Technology Transfer Challenges:Contrasting Cultures Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

21. Private Investments vs. Government Investments (in US $K), 1991-2005 Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

22. The Ultimate Key: Manpower • For small countries the only way to compensate for numeric inferiority is by qualitative superiority • Quality = Skilled people • Technology is a product of skilled people Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

23. A word of caution Industry ? Inventors R&D Centers Academy Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors

24. There are three possible roads to ruin - women, gambling and technology. The most pleasant is with women, the quickest is with gambling, but the surest is with technology. Georges Pompidou Tel-Aviv University Board of Governors