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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis. From Technology-Driven Roadmapping towards Sustainability-Oriented Roadmapping: Development and Application of an Integrated Method Presenter: Dr. Edgar Göll Authors: L. Erdmann; S. Behrendt

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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis

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  1. Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis From Technology-Driven Roadmapping towards Sustainability-Oriented Roadmapping: Development and Application of an Integrated Method Presenter: Dr. Edgar GöllAuthors: L. Erdmann; S. Behrendt Seville 28-29 September 2006

  2. IZTInstitute für Futures Studies and Technology Assessment Schopenhauerstr. 26 D - 14129 B e r l i n www.izt.de

  3. The Integrated Roadmap acknowledges the following aspects: • Multiple dimensions of sustainable development are simultaneously focused in the innovation process. • The perspective is shifted from technological feasibility to the potential contribution of technologies to meet socio-economic trends and needs. • Stakeholders, especially experts, customers and users, are integrated into the roadmapping process. • Unintended side effects of a technology for companies, users and society are dealt with. • Multiple futures and Wild Cards are investigated.

  4. Case Study “Integrated Roadmap Automation 2015+” German Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers Association (ZVEI) commissioned a project to IZT to develop a roadmap for the automation industry in Germany (time horizon 2015) Aims of the Roadmap: • demonstrating the development perspectives of automation with the background of future customers’ demands • identifying technological contributions to deal with socio-economic trends and social future challenges • delivering strategic knowledge for the automation industry sector and for the activities of ZVEI

  5. The Integrated Roadmapping Methodology Step 1: Scoping – Determination of the Search Scheme Step 2: Forecasting - Identification of trends and impact assessment Step 3: Backcasting – Breakdown of different futures Step 4: Derivation of the Roadmap Step 5: Transfer

  6. General Recommendations: “Do’s and Don’ts” (1) • Involve an Independent Roadmapping Facilitator with Relevant Abilities in Sustainability Research • Consider the Participation of other External Stakeholders Carefully • Activate Engaged Sector Experts and High-Level Decision Makers

  7. General Recommendations: “Do’s and Don’ts” (2) • Shift the Technology Perspective: From the Developers to the Users • Focus on Sustainability-Relevant Areas • Seek Multiple Perspectives and Broad Empirical Input

  8. General Recommendations: “Do’s and Don’ts” (3) • How to Deal with Future Uncertainties - Pictures of the Future and Wild Cards • Consider Side-Effects • Stimulate Communication by Various Means of Visualisation • Transfer Results Tailored to Target Groups Actively

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