Connecting Outcomes with Policy Needs: Foresight Assisted Processes

1. Report on good practice/policy workshop Connecting outcomes with policy needs, options and implications The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)12 & 13 May 2011 Professor Ron Johnston Australian Centre for Innovation University of Sydney

2. Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes] “The recent onset of crises and challenges ranging from climate change, financial and economic downturns, to security threats highlight a rising need to incorporate more forward-looking approaches into the decision- making processes of public and private organisations and stakeholders all around the world.” – Seville FTA Conference 2008

3. Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes] Key Questions • What kind of emerging issues should FTA seek to address? • Which actors should be engaged? • What actions should or could be taken • What is the possibility and role of innovation • What are the key policy messages?

4. Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes] The Process • Eleven policy-relevant posters selected , from experience of 8 countries and 2 international organisations • Policy-makers and experts invited to provide the audience for poster presentations • Two groups , facilitated by AhtiSalo and Jack Smith • Informal style, speaking to poster to a small group (12-15) • Very active, exploratory discussion between presenter and policy makers – 20 mins per poster • Concluding discussion to identify key issues and findings

5. Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes] Key Issues and Findings This process allows for a much higher level of engagement, interaction, exploration of issues and mutual learning than the more traditional multiple paper presentation and discussion model

6. Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes] Key criteria for effective policy engagement • Deep knowledge in the field • ‘Roadmap thinking’ • Quality • Imagination and an open-minded attitude • “Idea recycling modesty” – some ideas will fail, but be used later • Ownership Antonio Correia de Campos

7. Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes] FTA is Dynamic • The world has changed and so must FTA • FTA should never aim to be ‘finalised’, or even a mature discipline – it needs to be a continuing learning and evolving work-in-progress • FTA has been reframed in just the past two years – from a contributor to evidence-based policy to an emphasis on the construction, analysis and interpretation of narratives

8. Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes] From expert–based projects to continuous crowd-based processes • Growing use of horizon scanning, weak signals, wildcards, ‘crowd-sourcing’ as portals to the future • This creates the need for analysis of how narratives are constructed and interpreted, and recognition that the power associated with the adoption of a narrative is attracting unethical/criminal activity eg ‘sock-puppets’ • Continuous, iterative processes rather than one-off projects • The Ollila orchestration model

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10. Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes] From expert–based projects to continuous crowd-based processes • Growing use of horizon scanning, weak signals, wildcards, ‘crowd-sourcing’ as portals to the future • This creates the need for analysis of how narratives are constructed and interpreted, and recognition that the power associated with the adoption of a narrative is attracting unethical/criminal activity eg ‘sock-puppets’ • Continuous, iterative processes rather than one-off projects (which requires FTA capacity) • The Ollila orchestration model

11. Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes] From expert–based projects to continuous crowd-based processes • The role of expectations in techno-economic evolution • Creating ownership of roadmaps – a bottom-up process - a strategy and a communication tool at many levels • FTA embedded as a standard planning tool – the demise of foresight experts? (and Seville FTA conferences)

12. Orienting Innovation towards Grand Challenges: a real-time experiment in the application of foresight-assisted processes] Tensions • Between mass participation/open processes and quality control • Between a rational/objective stance (impossible) and an engaged activist stance (dangerous) • Between the seductions of fashionability and the obscurity of pedantic precision