GoI/UNDP Disaster Risk Reduction Program State Project Officers Orientation 14-16 December 2009

1. Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Disaster Risk Management/ Reduction - Reducing vulnerability & building resilience GoI/UNDP Disaster Risk Reduction Program State Project Officers Orientation 14-16 December 2009 Matteo Marchisio Environmental Specialist (Adaptation) UNDP India matteo.marchisio@undp.org .

2. 1. Setting the stage: a few initial concepts 1.1 What is CC? 1.2 What are (some) of the impacts of CC? 1.3 Why does CC matter? 1.4 How to address CC risk? - A few basic concepts: • Mitigation • Adaptation, vulnerability resilience • Adaptation vs Disaster Risk Mgt 2.1 How to build CC resilient programs & projects (A 4 step approach) 2.2 Possible entry points to mainstream 2. How to mainstream/integrate adaptation to CC into sector programs & projects?

3. Setting the stage: a few initial concepts 1.1 What is CC? • IPCC Definition: “Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or because of human activity” • A more practical definition for our purpose: “An unnatural change in the climate due to average increase in temperature due to anthropic emissions of GHGs into the atmosphere”

4. 1.2 What are (some) of the impacts of CC? Changes in: Precipitation (timing, amount, intensity, distribution) Sea level Frequency, intensity & distribution of extreme weather events (e.g. floods, droughts, etc.) Ecosystem distribution & composition […]

5. 1.3 Why does CC matter? (A) Because it affects every sector of development … PUBLIC HEALTH COASTAL SYSTEMS WATER RESOURCES ECOSYSTEM SERVICES FORESTRY AGRICULTURE More variability in water supply, changes in water Quality/ distribution, competition Less predictability, changing yields, changing irrigation demand, pest infestations Infectious, respiratory, water-borne, vector-borne diseases, heat Erosion, inundation, salinisation, stress on mangroves, marshes, wetlands Forest composition, range, health & productivity Loss of habitat & species, migration • But also: • Infrastructures (roads, bridges, dams) • Energy(hydropower) • […]

6. 1.3 Why does CC matter? (B) Because it makes development more costly… ODA “losses” from climate-related events will delay development gains

7. 1.3 Why does CC matter? (C) Because the longer we wait, the more expensive adapting will become… Stern Review, 2006

8. 1.3 Why does CC matter? (D) Because ‘coping’ will not suffice as a strategy: • CC affects the distribution, nature & severity of climate-related hazards • CC erodes people’s coping abilities (e.g. longer dry periods, decreasing predictability of seasonal rainfall, etc.) Climatic variations Time

9. 1.4 How to address CC risk? - A few basic concepts… (I) Mitigation Adaptation/ Resilience to CC Reduce ‘vulnerability’ to CC impacts Vulnerability = degree to which a system is susceptible or unable to cope with the effects of CC - including variability and/or extremes Vulnerability = f (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity) Increase ‘resilience’ to CC Resilience = ability of a system (community) to resist a stress before a change occurs • Reduce the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere Examples of mitigation actions: • Reduce GHG emissions (renewable energy, energy efficiency, etc.) • Improve CO2 storage/sequestration (forest conservation, reforestation, …)

10. 1.4 How to address CC risk? - A few basic concepts (continues) Adaptation • Adaptation to CC = adjustment in a (human or natural) system in response to an actual or expected climatic stimulus Examples of adaptation actions: • Hard resilience (physical interventions: flood control structures, dams, water harvesting structures, etc.) • Soft resilience (skills, processes, institutions, social systems, policies, programs, etc.)

11. A few basic concepts (continues) - Adaptation and DRM/DRR Adaptation Disaster Risk Management Deals with foreseeable risks Focuses mainly on extreme, catastrophic events Focuses on preparedness and post-disaster recovery Short-term, immediate, reactive • They both look at risks(though from a different angle: short vs long-term, extreme vs gradual) • Concerned about uncertainty • Focuses on both extreme and low-impact events • Focuses on maintaining long-term productivity/ resilience • Is a long-term, continuous process • Involves strengthening systems, building resilience • They are complementary approaches that can reinforce each other’s effectiveness

12. 1. Setting the stage: a few initial concepts 1.1 What is CC? 1.2 What are (some) of the impacts of CC? 1.3 Why does CC matter? - 4 reasons 1.4 How to address CC risk? - A bit of terminology: • Mitigation • Adaptation, resilience • Adaptation vs Disaster Risk Mgt 2.1 How to build CC resilient programs & projects (A 4 step approach) 2.2 Possible entry points to mainstream 2. How to mainstream/integrate adaptation to CC into sector programs & projects?

13. How to mainstream/integrate adaptation to CC into sector programs & projects? 2.1 How to build CC resilient programs & projects A four step approach: • Identify CC risks • Identify risks that result in ‘maladaptation’ (i.e. business as usual) • Identify opportunities • Identify potential adaptation measures

14. 2. How to mainstream/integrate adaptation to CC into sector programs & projects? (I) Identify CC risks In case CC risks uncertain, useful a “risk assessment”: What information are needed? Where can they be obtained? Develop CC scenarios representing plausible futures (collect historical data + recent changes, select CC models) Assess vulnerability (i.e. exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity) Combine info on potential future climate scenarios/hazards with those of vulnerability of target population/communities • Is the program potentially sensitive to CC? • Does the program target areas/sectors that are/ may be affected by CC? • What are the climate hazards that may affect the program? • What are the existing hazards? How the existing hazards are expected to evolve as a result of CC? • Which hazards are most relevant to the outcomes of the program?

15. 2. How to mainstream/integrate adaptation to CC into sector programs & projects? (II) Identify ‘maladaptation’ (III) Identify opportunities What the opportunities/ entry points to deliver adaptation within the existing program? Can synergies be identified with other existing/planned activities that can help delivery of adaptation outcomes? • Are there elements of the program that may amplify the impacts of CC? • Are there elements of the program that may increase vulnerability to future CC?

16. 2. How to mainstream/integrate adaptation to CC into sector programs & projects? (IV) Identify adaptation measures • What interventions may reduce vulnerability of communities to CC? may increase their capacity to adapt to CC? • What can be done to increase the awareness of CC, associated risks, and possible adaptation strategies?

17. How to mainstream/integrate adaptation to CC into sector programs & projects? 2.2 Possible entry points to mainstream

18. 2.2 Possible entry points to mainstream Entry point 1: Policy • What regulations are in place to govern/promote resilience in different sectors? • Are there policies and strategies that are particularly at risk – e.g. food security? • Are commitments to climate risk reflected in sector budgets? Development plans? Infrastructure investments? • Who is the political champion for climate change / disaster risk reduction?

19. 2.2 Possible entry points to mainstream Entry point 2: Organizations • Do sector departments/organisations have a focal point for Climate Change? • Do officials know why they should care about climate change and its associated impacts? What’s their status of knowledge? • Have there been past experiences with climate-related damages/disasters? • Which key networks/partnerships do exist?

20. 2.2 Possible entry points to mainstream Entry point 3: Advocacy & Knowledge • Is there awareness of the latest tools and methods in climate projections, vulnerability assessment and economic analysis? • Who is doing climate change and vulnerability research, and where is it located? • Are there public awareness campaigns to promote a culture of safety/resilience? • Are there projects or studies that provide relevant lessons, knowledge and information?

21. 2.2 Possible entry points to mainstream Entry point 4: Targeted Actions (Implementation) • Are hazard and risk assessments carried out before new infrastructure is built? • Is the resilience of existing development projects being monitored? • Are there pilot projects that provide information about the effectiveness of particular risk reduction approaches in different sectors?

22. 2.2 Possible entry points to mainstream Entry point 5: Citizens & Civil Society • Are political structures accountable on risk reduction issues? • Are there adequate groups representing needs and concerns of those vulnerable to climate change • Do local civil society groups and communities participate in development planning? • Is existing and indigenous knowledge informing planning for climate change?

23. Recap: a few key messages • Why understanding/including CC is important? => because CC adds a factor of uncertainty/ complexity in our work, because it makes our work less effective • DRM/DRR and Adaptation: two sides of the same coin => need to maximize areas of synergy • What can be done to make DRM/DRR program ‘climate resilient’? => include climate change factor in risk assessments and vulnerability assessments

24. Thank-you Feel free to contact me: matteo.marchisio@undp.org