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Evolving Asia: Growth, Challenges and Opportunities – Asia’s Search for Leadership Synergy

Evolving Asia: Growth, Challenges and Opportunities – Asia’s Search for Leadership Synergy Tan Sri Dr. Munir Majid Visiting Senior Fellow LSE IDEAS and Chairman of Malaysia Airlines 29 to 31 st July 2011, Phnom Penh, Kingdom of Cambodia 7 th Asia Economic Forum.

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Evolving Asia: Growth, Challenges and Opportunities – Asia’s Search for Leadership Synergy

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  1. Evolving Asia: Growth, Challenges and Opportunities – Asia’s Search for Leadership Synergy Tan Sri Dr. Munir Majid Visiting Senior Fellow LSE IDEAS and Chairman of Malaysia Airlines 29 to 31st July 2011, Phnom Penh, Kingdom of Cambodia 7th Asia Economic Forum

  2. Asia is evolving … GDP growth outpacing the world World GDP growth GDP growth of developing Asia

  3. Share of GDP rising from 27% in 2010 to 51% in 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Global output (market exchange rates US$Trillions) Asian share of global output Global growth Asia Growth Asian share of global growth Global GDP per capita (PPP) Asian GDP per capita (PPP) 62 27.4% 10,700 6,600 90 33.5% 4.0% 5.8% 55.7% 14,300 10,600 132 38.9% 3.9% 5.2% 59.3% 19,400 16,500 195 44.5% 3.8% 4.8% 62.8% 26,600 25,400 292 50.6% 3.6% 4.4% 66.0% 36,600 38,600 Source: Centennial Group Projections 2011

  4. Evolving Asia … The emerging middle class is a key driver Source: Centennial Group Projections 2011 The middle class is the source of savings and entrepreneurship that drives new products and processes. Growth comes mainly from new products and most growth happens when new products are targeted at the middle class. Consumption by the global middle class accounts for one third of total global demand.

  5. The engines of the Asian Century are the Asia-7 economies 2010 GDP (MER trillion) 2050 GDP (MER trillion) Between 2010 and 2050, they will account for 87% of total GDP growth in Asia and almost 55% of global GDP growth. They will thus be the engines of not only Asia’s economy but also the global economy. PRC India Indonesia Japan Republic of Korea Thailand Malaysia Total Asia-7 5.7 1.4 0.7 5.4 1.0 0.3 0.2 14.8 62.9 40.4 11.4 8.2 3.7 3.2 2.6 132.4 MER- Market exchange rate Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Oct 2010; Centennial Group Projections 2011

  6. There are mega challenges to overcome .. • Inequities within countries (eg between the coastal and western regions of PRC) • The risk of falling into the Middle Income Trap • Intense competition for natural resources (energy, water, fertile land) • Rising disparities across countries could destabilise the region • Global warming, climate changes and natural disasters could threaten agricultural production, coastal populations and urban areas • Almost all countries face the challenge of governance and institutional capacities Source: Asia 2050, Asian Development Bank 2011

  7. The End

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