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Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD Demographic Study 2013 Update

Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD Demographic Study 2013 Update. Economic Conditions. U.S. Census Bureau reports that Texas added more people (421,000) than any other state from 2010 to 2011.  

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Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD Demographic Study 2013 Update

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  1. Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD Demographic Study 2013 Update

  2. Economic Conditions • U.S. Census Bureau reports that Texas added more people (421,000) than any other state from 2010 to 2011.   • Texas gained 257,000 jobs between December 2011 and December 2012. Continuing to lead the nation in job growth. (Texas Comptroller) • The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 72 consecutive months. (http://www.thetexaseconomy.org/economic-outlook/) • Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (Dec 2012) • - U.S. 7.6% • - Texas 6.0% • - DFW MSA 5.9% • - Tarrant County 5.8% • - Fort Worth 5.9% • DFW 2012 new home starts up 27 percent over 2011.(Metrostudy) • Texas sales tax receipts for November 2012 were 13.1 percent higher than for November 2011. (Texas Comptroller) • Sales tax collections have increased for 32 consecutive months (Year-over-year) boosted by strong business spending in the oil/natural gas and manufacturing sectors, and to a lesser extent by retail sales activity. (Texas Comptroller)

  3. 3 National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Change in Emp. – November 2012

  4. National Economic Overview Top 15 MSAs – Ranked by Ann. SF Permits on November 2012

  5. Housing Trends

  6. Multi-Family Historical OccupancyD/FW, Fort Worth, HEB Source: MPF Research

  7. Multi-Family Occupancy Rankings Source: MPF Research

  8. Multi-Family Occupancy by Year Completed • HEB occupancy just slightly higher than D/FW area HEB Unit Totals by age Source: MPF Research

  9. HEB ISD Multi-Family Distribution by unit totals Multi –Family Units

  10. Multi-family Occupancy and yields • Apartment Occupancy in HEB have • large impact on enrollment. • 4Q09 – Occupancy = 90.0% • 4Q10 – Occupancy = 92.3% • 4Q11 – Occupancy = 93.4% • 4Q12 – Occupancy = 94.2% 27,090 * .900 = 24,381 Occupied Units 27,090 * .923 = 25,004 Occupied Units 27,090 * .934 = 25,302 Occupied Units 27,090 * .942 = 25,519 Occupied Units

  11. Future Multi-Family Currently yields in nearby apartments are almost .5. This development could yield even higher because it is government assisted. 125 student would be reasonable.

  12. Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Starts and Closings

  13. New Home Ranking Report

  14. Lakes of River Trails East • 5 Under Construction • 2 Finished Vacant • 114 Complete • 20 Vacant

  15. Sanctuary on Texas Star • Single family • 120-130 Homes • City of Fort Worth • Lots cleared • Model opening • Now selling homes • Plantation Homes

  16. Viridian • As of December 2012 • 59 Homes Under Construction • 9 Finished Vacant • 7 models • 3 appear occupied • 84 developed vacant lots Viridian • 2,000 Acres • 3,500 Single Family • Multi-Family or TH/Condo • 450 acres of lakes • Mixed Use • Build-out 8-10 years

  17. The Dominion at Riverwalk This is the first phase of “The Riverwalk”. 206 Single family homes expected to be move-in ready by 1st quarter of 2014.

  18. The Lakes of River Trails • As of December 2012 • 289 Total Lots • 32 Homes Under Construction • 2 Finished Vacant • Good Activity • River Trails attendance zone

  19. Enrollment Forecast

  20. Enrollment History Yellow boxes indicate largest grade total per year. Green boxes indicate second largest grade totals per year. 2011 KG – 2nd = 5,121 2011 10th - 12th = 4,612 Difference = 509 Elementary grades over 500 students larger than High School grades.

  21. Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD Forecast • Kindergarten class continues to be the largest class • Enrollment growth steady from new housing and regeneration • Five year enrollment growth = 1,673 students • Ten year enrollment growth = 3,113

  22. Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD Forecast

  23. Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD Forecast

  24. H.E.B. ISD • District annual new home pace could reach 350-450 homes per year. • District in position for enrollment growth of 333 (1.5%) growth fall 2013. • Ten Year Elementary growth = 1,327 additional students • Ten Year Junior High growth = 902 additional students • Ten Year High School growth = 885 additional students • District Ten Year enrollment growth = 3,113 additional students • Viridian has started with over 50 homes under construction • Viridian growth will pressure capacity at Meadow Creek Elementary next year. • Additional single family and multifamily development taking place and will cause additional enrollment growth. • Overall economic outlook remains positive which will lead to continued population growth across Texas and the DFW region.

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