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Dayton and Southwest Ohio Economy

Dayton and Southwest Ohio Economy. Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group University of Dayton. State of the Dayton Metro Area (in December Each Year, 2000-2013). Dayton lost 32,400 jobs in the two year period from December, 2007 to December, 2009.

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Dayton and Southwest Ohio Economy

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  1. Dayton and Southwest OhioEconomy Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group University of Dayton

  2. State of the Dayton Metro Area(in December Each Year, 2000-2013) • Dayton lost 32,400 jobs in the two year period from December, 2007 to December, 2009. • It recovered 7,900 of those jobs in the 2 years to December, 2011 • That recovery has stagnated in the last two years

  3. State of the Dayton Metro Area: Last 4 Years(in December Each Year, 2009-2013) • Growth was steady in the Dec. 2009 to Dec. 2011 period. • Last 24 months, loss of 1700 jobs

  4. Total Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, Dec. 2000-2013

  5. Construction Employment Index: Ohio and the United States, Dec. 2000-2013

  6. Manufacturing Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the U.S., Dec. 2000-2013

  7. Trade, Transportation, Utilities Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2013

  8. Prof. & Bus. Serv. Employment Index: Dayton and Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2013

  9. Education and Health Services Index: Dayton & Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2013

  10. Government Employment Index: Dayton & Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2013 Note that Government Employment Actually Rose in Dayton Metro from 2008 to 2010

  11. Federal Government Employment Index: Dayton & Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2013 Note that Government Employment Actually Rose in Dayton Metro from 2008 to 2010

  12. Local Government Employment Index: Dayton & Cincinnati Metros compared to Ohio and the United States, December 2000-2013

  13. The Income Piece • How Big is the Wage Problem?

  14. Average Weekly Earnings in Dayton and Cincinnati relative to Ohio and U.S., November 2007-2013 (2013 Constant Dollars)

  15. Relationship to National Economy

  16. Cyclical factors • How closely linked is the Dayton Economy to the National Economy? • From December, 2002 to December, 2013, 92% of variation in monthly Dayton Metro Area unemployment rate can be explained by variation in the U.S unemployment rate

  17. United States, Dayton Metropolitan Area Monthly Unemployment Rates, December 2002-December 2013

  18. United States, Dayton Metropolitan Area Monthly Unemployment Rates, December 2006-December 2013

  19. United States, Dayton Metropolitan Area Monthly Single Housing Units Building Permits, August 2001-November 2013 (Aug 2001 =100)

  20. Dayton Metropolitan Area Monthly Single Housing Units Building Permits, November 2002-November 2013

  21. Number of Unemployed in Dayton Metropolitan Areas, 1990-November 2013

  22. Forecasting the Next 3 years • Note that the Dayton Metropolitan Areas has mirrored the Country as a whole more closely in the last few years. • What are the implications of the National Economic Forecast? • Federal Government and Local Employment Declines Have Already Taken a Toll. How Much More?

  23. Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank (4th Quarter Estimates)

  24. Implications of National Forecast for the Dayton Metropolitan Economy

  25. Defense Budget Squeeze Impact • Number of Jobs Linked to Wright Patterson Air Force Base Activities ~ 25,000 to 30,000 • Cuts are likely to be program specific for particular big ticket items, impact on Wright Patterson related employment is uncertain. • If one assumes a 10% drop in WPAFB related employment over a 3 to 4 year period, that implies 2500 to 3000 fewer jobs or an annual impact of about a 1000 jobs. • It represents a head wind on local job growth • One potential upside – potential wins in next BRAC rounds

  26. Summary • Job growth in the Dayton Metro Area economy has stalled in the last 24 months • The Dayton Metro Area Unemployment rate remains closely linked to National levels but is lagging behind • While the Dayton economy mirrors more closely the national economy in 2013 than at any point in the last 20 years, reductions in planned defense spending will constitute a headwind over the next few years.

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