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Electoral College Consequences

Electoral College Consequences. Winner-take-all Battleground states Targeted in campaigns Policy benefits Depresses turnout Build broad geographical coalition Misfire? Bush 3.5 million popular vote margin Swing of 150,000 votes in Ohio. Britain’s Division. Head of Government.

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Electoral College Consequences

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  1. Electoral College Consequences • Winner-take-all • Battleground states • Targeted in campaigns • Policy benefits • Depresses turnout • Build broad geographical coalition • Misfire? • Bush 3.5 million popular vote margin • Swing of 150,000 votes in Ohio

  2. Britain’s Division Head of Government • Head of State

  3. President wears “many hats” • Chief of State • Manager of the Economy • Chief Executive • Commander-in-Chief • Chief Diplomat • Chief Legislator • Chief of the Party • World Leader

  4. Constitutional Basics • Normative ?-- Hamilton, Fed No. 70. Energy in the Executive • one person office • elected for a fixed term • national constituency • Vague formal powers from Constitution

  5. Constitutional DNA • Hamilton • “Energy in the Executive” • One person office • Fixed term • National constituency • Vague formal powers

  6. Few Formal Executive Powers • Administrative head of government • Commander-in-Chief of military • Veto (or sign) legislation • Nominate judges, cabinet secretaries • Treaties, pardons, convene Congress

  7. Modern Presidency

  8. FDR’s Legacy • Wins World War II • Ends the Great Depression • Ends economic insecurity with Social Security • Fights for working man (unions, minimum wage) • Reduces agricultural poverty (farm supports)

  9. The Modern PresidencyWWII onward The FDR Standard (1932-45) • Emphasis on leadership & bully pulpit • National problems • New role for federal government • President as active leader • Welfare state • Expanded executive branch (budget)

  10. Paradox of the Modern Presidency • President is #1 • Increased expectations of presidency • Increased staff, resources • Shift in quality and quantity of attention paid to president • Chief policy-maker • BUT • No change in formal powers!

  11. New American President--Power of Clark Kent --Expectations of Superman

  12. Going Public Strategy • Presidents • Marshall public support for their policies and actions • Cultivate popular cultural image of themselves

  13. Public Approval of President • Three general trends • Declines while in office • Economy • Rally events and scandals • Beyond Presidential Control

  14. The Current Incumbent

  15. Bush- Social Security Roadtrip Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling Social Security (USA Today/Gallup)

  16. What is George W. Bush’s image?

  17. Macho

  18. “Mission Accomplished”

  19. Cowboy (not wimp)

  20. Compassionate Conservative

  21. Education President ====

  22. Likes Children and Baseball

  23. Patriotism

  24. Going Public

  25. Alternative Image?

  26. Institutional Presidency • Jefferson in 1900 had 2 assistants • Brownlow Committee • “The president needs help” • President not Congress should be in charge of executive branch

  27. Presidency is Many People EOP: OMB, NSC, CEA, “czars,” VP, and WHO WHO: close advisors, no Senate approval

  28. Cabinet Officials Department of State Department of Defense Department of Treasury Exec. Office of Pres. White House Office (WHO) NSC OMB CEA Where is the Power?

  29. Institutional Presidency I: West Wing

  30. Institutional Presidency II: OEOB

  31. Implications of Instit. Pres • Radical change in system of government? • Increased presidential control of policy making and centralization of the decision making • Increases potential for screw ups • Reduced accountability

  32. Transition from Historical to Modern Presidency • Historic Presidency • President is a clerk • Congress #1 • Modern Presidency • Increased popular expectations • President #1 • No change in formal powers

  33. Modern Presidents Response • Devote tremendous time and resources to manipulating public image • Going public • Have immense staff of political, policy, and partisan experts • Institutional presidency • Are presidents stronger– YES, but expectations outstrip capacity

  34. World’s Greatest Clerkship • Neustadt, Presidential Power (Al’s prof) • power of president do not flow from literary reading of constitution • Decisions are not self executing JFK, Cuban Missile Crisis • "The conditions that promote his leadership in form, preclude a guarantee of leadership in fact." • “presidential power is power to bargain”

  35. Limited formal powers=constant bargaining • President can • Nominate judges, but • Propose trade treaties, but • Propose popular legislation, but • Propose spending less on military golf courses, • Will Presidents keep their promises? • Constitutional odds are stacked against them!

  36. Presidential power = persuasion • Formal powers are minimal • Can propose legislation, C in C • Dependent on other institutions • Informal powers are crucial • Presidential power is power to persuade • Presidents have to bargain

  37. Informal Powers • Professional reputation • Electoral results • Bargaining • Carrot and the stick • Marshalling public opinion (going public)

  38. The Stick and Senator Shelby • Dem criticizes Clinton’s Budget • Space Shuttle to TX • No Tickets for ‘Bama Celebration at WH • Shelby’s response?

  39. Unsuccessful Persuasion • Clinton Campaign Promise • Allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in military • Congress • Sam Nunn (D-GA) on the submarine • Don’t ask, don’t tell in Family Medical Leave Act • C in C of Military • Cruising chat rooms and gay bars

  40. Success of Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell • Source: CNN Special Report

  41. Truman and Marshall Plan • Truman’s prospects for Aid to Europe • Un-elected president • Very unpopular • Large GOP majorities in Congress • Memory of Great Depression • Increasing Isolationism

  42. Ranking Presidents • Will history judge Bill Clinton as a great president? George W. Bush? • Why or why not?

  43. Good/Great Truman Eisenhower JFK LBJ Reagan Clinton Why such variety? Bad/Failures Nixon Ford Carter Bush (41) Ranking Post WW II Presidents

  44. Greenstein • Executive branch “reflects the character and personality of the president” • highly personalized nature of modern American Presidency • Presidential success = Characteristics of Individual President

  45. Effectiveness as Public Communicator • Bully Pulpit

  46. Organizational Capacity • Loyalty • Candid discussion • Prevent group-think

  47. Political Skill • Establish reputation as “skilled operator” • Opposes, then Signs • Corporate Responsibility Act • Homeland Security • Public opposes • Tax Cuts • War in Iraq

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