Lars Peter Riishojgaard, Chair CBS OPAG-IOS and

1. Wind Observations in the Global Observing System – a WMO Perspective ISS Winds Mission Science Workshop, Miami, Feb 10-11 2011 Lars Peter Riishojgaard, Chair CBS OPAG-IOS and Jerome Lafeuille, Space-based Observing Systems Division, WMO

2. Outline WMO, WWW and the GOS The WMO Rolling Requirements Review CBS, OPAG-IOS, Expert Teams, Workshops The current GOS Mass and wind Data impacts WMO Vision for the GOS in 2025 ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop

3. WMO, WWW and the GOS WMO: World Meteorological Organization; a specialized agency of the United Nations; the UN system's authoritative voice on meteorology, climatology, hydrology WWW, World Weather Watch: Core WMO programme since 1963; observing systems, information systems and telecommunication facilities, and data-processing and forecasting centres; backbone for efficient meteorological and hydrological services, worldwide Key WWW components: GTS (Global Telecommunications System) evolving towards WIS GOS (Global Observing System) ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop

4. WMO Global Observing System Coordinated system of methods and facilities for making meteorological and other environmental observations on a global scale in support of all WMO Programs Surface stations Upper-air network Marine observations Aircraft Satellite systems Owned and operated by WMO member states on behalf of WMO; subject to WMO Regulatory Materials WMO vets and documents requirements for the GOS through its Rolling Requirements Review ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop

5. The Rolling Requirements Review (RRR) in the WMO structure Commission for Basic Systems; one of eight WMO Technical Commissions. President: Fred Branski, NOAA/NWS … OPAG for the Integrated Observing System; one of four OPAGs under CBS. Chair: L. P. Riishojgaard, JCSDA … Expert Team on the Evolution of the Global Observing System; one of six Expert Teams under OPAG-IOS. Chair: John Eyre, Met Office Requirements database (by application area) for Global NWP, Regional NWP, Nowcasting, Agrometeorology, etc. Capabilities database (by observing system), e.g. RAOBS, GEO imagers, AMDAR, buoys, etc. Gap analysis, Statements of Guidance Implementation plan Vision for the GOS in 2025 ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop

6. RRR (I) • ET-EGOS • Meets once a year in Geneva • Oversees all requirements, all application areas through focal points • Interacts with other CBS Expert Teams, teams from other WMO Technical Commissions and co-sponsored programs (e.g. GCOS) • WMO Rapporteur on Scientific Evaluation of Impact Studies (formerly “Rapporteur on OSEs and OSSEs”) • Responsible for gathering community input specifically on NWP • WMO Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP • Every four years, by invitation only, organized by Rapporteur on SEIS and OPAG-IOS • All major NWP Centers meet to compare impacts of all major elements of the GOS • OSEs and adjoint sensitivity diagnostics • (Next Workshop: May 29 – June 1, 2012 in the US; venue TBD) ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop

7. Impact of GOS components on 24-h ECMWF Global Forecast skill (courtesy of Erik Andersson, ECMWF) Growing importance of research data Satellite data now account for most of the skill

8. Impacts of Various Observing Systems in GEOS-5.5.1 24-hr Forecasts from 00z Analyses on 28 Jan – 02 March 2010 Adjoint-Based Global Forecast Error Measure Ron Gelaro, GMAO Impact Per Observation Total Impact RAOBs continue to be important for some systems Forecast Error Reduction (J/kg) Forecast Error Reduction (1e-6 J/kg) Improves Forecast Degrades Forecast Observation Count Fraction of Beneficial Observations ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop

9. Importance of Satellite Data in NWPhttp://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/obsens/ Observation Impact all 1 2 1 6 Σ Conv = -168.0 Satellite Data has become the single most important component of the global observing network for NWP Different satellite data important for different systems ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop Σ Sat Winds = -198.3 Σ Sat Radiances = -143.9

10. 500 hPa anomaly correlation coefficients, NH w4-9 w0-3 w10-20

11. 500 hPa anomaly correlation coefficients, SH w4-9 w0-3 w10-20

12. 4th WMO Impact Workshop (Geneva, May 2008) An additional 2 to 6 hours of useful forecast range is the most any individual component of the GOS can contribute in the NH Overall impact (“marginal skill”) on short/medium range global NWP This is very significant in terms of socioeconomic impact and is strongly linked to other measures of skill! ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop

13. RRR (II) • ET-EGOS consolidates input on Requirements from all sources into output documents • e.g. Vision, Implementation Plan • Routing: • ET-EGOS  OPAG-IOS  CBS  WMO EC • Once adopted by the WMO Executive Council, the material becomes official WMO document ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop

14. GOS and Numerical Weather Prediction Numerical weather prediction requires independent and global observations of the mass (temperature) and wind fields The global three-dimensional mass field is well observed from space No existing space-based observing system provides vertically resolved wind information => horizontal coverage of wind profiles is sparse The lack of wind measurements is widely believed to be one of the main limiting factors for progress in NWP skill at all temporal ranges Especially critical as we progress to smaller and smaller scales where wind/mass balance assumptions break down ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop

15. Current Upper Air Mass & Wind Data Coverage Vertically resolved Mass Observations Vertically resolved Wind Observations ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop

16. Elements of the long-term vision for the Global Observing System Vision for the GOS in 2025 endorsed by WMO Executive Council on 11/06/09 Provides high-level guidance for global observation planning Framework for WMO Members to commit on contributing missions Calls for major enhancement of the space component Geostationary, polar-orbit and other orbits as appropriate Transition of several missions fromR&D to operational/sustained status(Altimetry, GPS radio-occultation, scatterometry, chemistry) Operational pathfinders ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop

17. Vision for the GOS in 2025 (space component)Summary of missions called for on operational basis Core operational GEO missions All with IR hyperspectral sounding, lightning detection Core operational LEO Imagery and IR-MW sounding All with hyperspectral IR, on 3 sun-synchronous orbital planes Ocean surface topography Radio-Occultation Sounding Ocean Surface Wind Global Precipitation Earth Radiation Budget Atmospheric Composition Special imaging for ocean colour, vegetation Dual-angle view IR imagery Land Surface Imaging Synthetic Aperture Radar Space Weather instruments Observations performed so far on a R&D basis should be planned on an operational or sustained basis Integrating new missions ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop

18. Vision for the space-based GOS in 2025Operational pathfinders and demonstrators ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop

19. Summary As of June 2009, space-based wind lidars are part of the official WMO Vision for the Global Observing System 2025 This means that the National Meteorogical and Hydrological Services of the WMO member states have signed off on this as something that can and should be done! WMO does not own or implement satellite systems However, WMO does set standards for taking, processing, disseminating and exchanging observations WMO also captures and documents requirements and capabilities, performs gap analysis, and develops Vision and Implementation Plans for the GOS of the future ISS Winds Science Mission Science Workshop