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Stay informed about the EPA’s activities regarding coal impacts, outage studies, and the proposed Clean Power Plan. Understand the state-specific emission goals, milestones, and SPP’s efforts towards compliance.
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Update on EPA Activities MOPC July 15-16, 2014
Topics Covered • Current Known Impacts • Retirements • De-ratings • Outage Impact Studies • Proposed Clean Power Plan
Impact on Coal in SPP (based on recent survey)
Outage Impact Study * • SPP bi-annual study process • Four-year look ahead for reliability issues • Weekly snapshots through the four years • Scheduled outages taken into account • Current studies indicate there will be adequate time to perform generator retrofits necessary to comply with known environmental regulations • Retrofits are expected to impact generation supply economics more than the ability to reliably serve load * Formerly called “EPA Study” 6
Outage Impact Study Resource Adequacy 2014 2014 Weekly Outages 67,678
Outage Impact Study Resource Adequacy 2015 2015 Weekly Outages 67,678
EPA Clean Power Plan Overview • EPA’s proposed performance standards to reduce CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel-fired generators • Promulgated under authority of Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act • Achieves nationwide 30% reduction of CO2 from 2005 levels by 2030 • Proposes state-specific emission rate-based CO2 goals • Based on EPA’s interpretation and application of Best System of Emission Reduction (BSER) • Must be met by 2030
EPA Clean Power Plan Overview • States goals and flexibility • Interim goals applied 2020-2029 that allows states to choose trajectory • Offers guidelines and allows states flexibility to develop and submit State Implementation Plans • States may adopt an equivalent mass-based goal • States can develop individual plans or collaborate with other states • If state does not submit a plan or its plan is not approved, EPA will establish a plan for that state
BSER is Based on Four Building Blocks *Uses 2012 data for existing units and estimated data for units under construction.
SPP State Goals by 2030 Fossil Unit CO2 Emission Rate Goals and Block Application (lbs/MWh) SPP State Average 2012 Rate = 1,699 SPP State Average 2030 Rate = 1,045 *Includes Future States with IS Generation in SPP (N. Dakota, S. Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming)
SPP State % Emission Reduction Goals Total CO2 Emission Reduction Goals (%) Average of SPP States = 38.5% *Includes Future States with IS Generation in SPP (N. Dakota, S. Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming)
EPA Projected 2016-2020 EGU Retirements(For SPP and Select Neighboring States) *Excludes committed retirements prior to 2016 **AEP provided data extracted from EPA IPM data
SPP State Efforts Underway • Arkansas • ADEQ has already had two stakeholder meetings, June 25th & May 28th • Next stakeholder meeting August 28th • SPP Staff met with ADEQ to provide an SPP overview • Missouri • Stakeholder meeting scheduled by MoPSC on August 18th • Nebraska • SPP Staff meeting with NDEQ and Nebraska utilities on July 30th • Oklahoma • Meeting being scheduled in August with stakeholders • Texas • Public workshop scheduled by PUCT on August 15th
How Can SPP Assist? • Help educate and work with states • Perform impact analyses • Inform stakeholder responses that are due October 16 • Inform current planning efforts • Assist state and member decision making • Facilitate coordinated SPP response to proposed Clean Power Plan • Evaluate and facilitate regional approach • Coordinate with neighbors • Other ways?
SPP’s Proposed Impact Analysis Framework • Perform both reliability and economic analyses • Use 2024 ITPNT and ITP10 Future 2 models as base case • Develop two scenarios • Identify incremental reliability problems and increased APC • Perform gas price sensitivity in economic analysis • Perform load scaling sensitivity in reliability analysis • Report results by October 1
Proposed Impact Analysis Scenarios *Will attempt to use existing capacity to replace coal up to existing capacity margin requirements