Theory of Change

1. Theory of Change What and So What, Examples and Options Irene Guijt Learning by Design For CD&IC Seminar December 3, 2007 ‘Scrutinising Success and Failure in Development: Institutional Change, Capacity Development and Theories of Change’

2. Overview • What is it? • Why is it relevant? (and why so interesting now) • Some frameworks on theories of change • Where do we go with this?

3. What change really means for a sugar cane farmer the farmer green – local pink - national blue – international Source: Ashish Shah, Kenya

4. The Example of ‘Power’ • Everyone talks of power, empowerment, rights • But what do we mean? • How we understand power affects the choices we make • Different assumptions about power imply different strategies for empowerment

5. Power over…(domination, control)

6. Power to… (agency, capacity to act)

7. Power with…(solidarity, mutual support)

8. ToC Commonly Viewed as … • Logic model – LFA, RBA, ZOPP… • what do we want to achieve and what do we need to do • ‘Theory of change’ according to Keystone, Aspen, etc: • vision of change • pathways of change and indicators of success • assumptions (conditions) • but still very like a logic model • It can (and should) be much more …

9. Terminology – An Important Distinction • Theory of change • how I think ‘history happens’ and why • overarching assumptions & philosophies that influence individual visions and understandings • Theory of action • how the most meaningful contribution can be made • an organisation’s or person’s specific role in a theory of change Veneklasen 2007

10. Other Terms that Might Be Used (and Confuse) • Vision of change • individual/group ideal or dream of the change being aimed for • Understanding of change • effect of specific methodologies/approaches (e.g. empowerment, popular education, organising, lobbying) Veneklasen 2007

11. What is ‘in’ a Theory of Change? • A ToC is philosophical, historical, political, psychological, experiential • Questions in a ToC of pro-poor development: • Change • Strategies • Constraints, forces • Our role • The roles of others • Linkages needed • the ToCs of others ► each of these carries assumptions about what we value and why – our values, passions, beliefs

12. ‘There is nothing more practical than a good theory.’ (Lewin 1952) Articulating ToCs can: • bring greater rigour to programme design • lead to more appropriate choice in approach based on context and objectives • open up broader range of options for change strategies • bring power back into discussions • help resolve conflicts about choice in strategies based on unarticulated assumptions ►Better informed, coherent and more transparent decision making

13. Theories of Change in Development • various frameworks • Participatory development • Coordination mechanisms • How history happens • Rhythm of change • Complexity • in practice, theories intermingle • but everyone has favourites

14. Causal Chain of Participatory Development • a common, simple underlying causality (Blair 2000): • more participation • more representation of underprivileged citizens • more empowerment of these groups to affect laws, plans, and budgets • benefits to all • progressively more difficult to prove linkages • Underlying question – Why do we think ‘participation of the poor’ is important?

15. Framework 1. Participatory Development From (1980s)To (2000 on) • Opportunities Rights • Beneficiaries Citizens • Projects Policies • Consultation Decision-making • Micro Macro Source: John Gaventa

16. Framework 2. Coordination Mechanism • Hierarchy – change through instruments of power • Individual – change via market forces and rational choice • Egalitarian – change via social capital, trust, community Ison, Röling and Watson 2007 Underlying question – What assumptions do we make about the relative effectiveness of different mechanisms?

17. Framework 3. How history happens • unintended consequence of aggregate action of many individuals • environmental determinism and technological response • through different/new beliefs, ideas and values (culture) • outcome of purposive individual and collective action • result of structural contradictions in society Eyben et al 2007, Parker et al 2003 Underlying question – What assumptions do we make about how history happens?

18. Framework 4.Rhythm of change • Emergent change: • ‘unfolding of life, adaptive and uneven processes of unconscious and conscious learning from experience’ • Transformative change: • ‘unlearning’ in crisis • ‘Projectable’ change: • linearly planned activities under relatively stable conditions and relationships Reeler 2007 Underlying question – What assumptions do we make about the ‘rhythm’ of change?

19. Framework 5. Cynefin - complexity • Simple: clear cause-and-effect; fact-based management • Complicated: cause-and effect knowable with expert input; fact-based management • Complex: emergent patterns; pattern-based management • Chaotic: no clear cause-effect, unknowables; pattern-based management Underlying question – What assumptions do we make about the nature of reality with which we are dealing?

20. Core Tension between Values and Systems • development sector experiences tensions between commitment to principles of solidarity and need for observable outcomes • two fundamentally distinct social change ideas: • Solidarity, social organisation, long term – complexity approach • Results-based, activities, time-bound – linear cause-effect

21. So what? • Each framework implies a question about assumptions we make - on power, participation, coordination mechanism, rhythm of change, societal change forces, ontology (more or less knowable) • Not about choosing a framework (there are many more!) • Perhaps need to integrate into a set of questions to untangle underlying assumptions

22. Example 1. Oxfam-Great Britain (Eyben et al 2007) • Diffusion-of-innovation • ignores power, ‘follow the leader’ • Archetypes of social change pathway • the ladder; enlightened elites; people in the streets; a good example; shock to the system; follow the leader; the power of belief; good old-fashioned democracy • still imply linearity • Complexity of change • Western models of ‘how history happens’

23. Oxfam International (ibid) • ‘change theory discussions’ by OI global labour rights team – seeking to improve labour standards • identified strengths/weaknesses of three strategies to assess relative effectiveness and synergy: • advocacy with national governments – legal changes • consumer campaigns – industrial policy changes • support local workers’ organisations and trade unions • a fourth strategy emerged (media) in practice • now developing in-situ ‘change strategies’ as an explicit complementary mix

24. Example 2. Fair Trade for Economic Empowerment • Theory of change – increasing producer power? • First a viable business or first a solid social organisation? • Women as labourers and gender equal impact will ensue • Theory of change – creating demand? • Niche product and ‘pure’ • Mainstream uptake and ‘diluted’ • Organisational strategic choices • Where does emphasis (need to) lie at what point? • What is compromised as a result?

25. Fad or Fundamental? • Shift towards institutional transformation as purpose of development – either as means or end in itself • NGOs engaging in new domains: policy influencing, advocacy, dialogue, conflict resolution • Unproven strategies • Hard to show results (or no clear results) • Need to articulate underlying assumptions • Decontextualised lesson learning ineffective • Echoes in the business sector – EBOs at IBM

26. Reclaiming Theory (of Change) for Practice Four core challenges • articulating underlying assumptions to come to a clear ToC (in a manageable way – you can’t focus on all assumptions) • aligning espoused theory (the official story) with theory in use (the messy reality) • aligning theories and the bureaucracies that manage change processes • reconciling diverse ToCs in a group, between groups

27. Trade-offs and Incompatible ToCs • Personal and organisational actions (strategies, protocols) are guided by ToCs • Not always compatible, e.g. disconnect between ‘learning’ as a strategic choice and room for learning in M&E protocols

28. Assumptions at Odds “…in decision-making at both policy-making and operational levels, we are increasingly coming to deal with situations where these assumptions [of order, rational choice and intentional capability] are not true, but the tools and techniques which are commonly available assume that they are.” Kurtz and Snowden 2003

29. Turning to Institutions and Capacities • What institutions do we think need changing? • How do we think institutions change? • How is ‘capacity’ present in our ToC about institutional change? • What values, passions, beliefs underpin our ideas?