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Theory of Change

Theory of Change. “A theory of change is a predictive assumption about the relationship between desired changes and the actions that may produce those changes .” In other words: “ If I do x, then I expect y to occur, and for these reasons.”.

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Theory of Change

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  1. Theory of Change

  2. “A theory of change is a predictive assumption about the relationship between desired changes and the actions that may produce those changes.” • In other words: • “If I do x, then I expect y to occur, and for these reasons.”

  3. “A conceptual map showing how programme or project teams think they can get from where things are to their desired end” • -Fletcher Tembo, 2012: ODI Working Paper 343

  4. Student HubsTheory of Change

  5. Why does this matter? • Natural • Implicit vs. explicit • Credibility and engaging with stakeholders • It’s compelling

  6. Your idea as a story

  7. Edna McConnell Clark Foundation • Vision: EMCF seeks to transform the life trajectories of America’s most vulnerable and economically disadvantaged youth by expanding the number nonprofits with the evidence base, organizational capacity, operational scale to achieve this important goal. • Theory of Change: Over more than a decade, The Edna McConnell Clark Foundation has developed, tested and refined a theory of change to accomplish this….

  8. Edna McConnell Clark Foundation • EMCF selects outstanding nonprofits with a potential for growth and compelling evidence that their programs help young people become successful, productive adults. • We invest in a grantee by structuring our investment according to the needs and nature of the organization and the goals it has set in the course of business capital, providing flexible upfront growth capital that will help it fulfill its plans to expand. • We support our grantees by augmenting our financial investment with the advice and expertise of an experienced EMCF portfolio manager who provides access to additional resources, including assistance with business planning, evaluation, organizational capacity building, board and talent development, and communications. • As our grantees grow, they improve the life prospects of greater numbers of youth with programs that have been proven to work.

  9. Write the theory of change for… • Or another character of your choice • There will be NO marks for realism- don’t worry about getting the story right!Just think about developing a logical ‘flow’ of theory of change.

  10. Write your own theory of change!

  11. Relation to Business Model Canvas • What Key Activities do your Value Propositions require? • What Activities do you need to achieve your vision? • How does your mission affect the way you execute these activities? • What Distribution Channels? Customer Relationships? Revenue streams?

  12. Complicating things • Assumptions: explain the connections between the preconditions for long-term change that occur in the early and intermediate stages of the change process, and the expectations about how and why proposed interventions will bring them about • What assumptions does your theory of change rely on? What has to happen (or not happen) for it to work properly?

  13. Testing the theory • Is your theory of change: • Plausible • Doable • Testable • Meaningful

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