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National Integrated Drought Information System

National Integrated Drought Information System. Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 6 November 2012. Outline. Welcome – Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium

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National Integrated Drought Information System

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  1. National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 6 November 2012

  2. Outline Welcome – Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought status and how we got here – Pam Knox, University of Georgia & Victor Murphy, NWS Streamflows and groundwater – Todd Hamill, SERFC Reservoirs’ status and projections – Bailey Crane, US ACE Seasonal outlooks – Pam Knox, UGA Streamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SE River Forecast Center, NOAA Summary and Discussion – Keith Ingram, SECC

  3. Current drought status from Drought Monitor http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

  4. 7-Day Accumulated Precipitation ending on 11/5/2012

  5. Cumulative Percent of Normal Past 30 days Since Jan. 1 http://water.weather.gov/precip/

  6. Departure from normal for 24-month accumulated precipitation, Sep 2012

  7. 2-year precipitation ending in September

  8. Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: Previous Brief: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  9. Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous brief: Below normal 7-day average streamflowas compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  10. Lake Lanier Inflows Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500) Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  11. Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500) Flint at Bainbridge (02356000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  12. Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

  13. Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer) http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

  14. USACE – ACF Operations

  15. 2012 ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage

  16. Lake Lanier

  17. West Point

  18. W.F. George

  19. Woodruff

  20. 5-Day Precipitation Forecast http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml

  21. 7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  22. During a neutral phase, the likelihood of a severe freeze is much greater than during either an El Niño or a La Niña event.

  23. Fall Rainfall Climatology

  24. 1-3 Month Temperature Outlook

  25. 1- and 3-Month Precipitation Outlook

  26. Tropical Outlook

  27. 1-Month Streamflow Forecasts Apalachicola Watershed Southeast River Forecast Center Lake Lanier Inflows November 5th – December 5th 2012 Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Carsonville West Point Near Normal Columbus Below Normal Albany WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown

  28. 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts Apalachicola Watershed Southeast River Forecast Center Lake Lanier Inflows November 5th 2012 – February 4th 2013 Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Carsonville West Point Near Normal Below Normal Columbus WF George Albany Columbus Woodruff Blountstown

  29. Summary Rains during the previous week have been less than 0.5 inches and drought continues throughout the basin except the Florida panhandle 30-day rainfall totals are less than 20% of normal and rainfall to date this year is 50-80% of normal The two-year rainfall total is 10 to 30 in below normal in the basin, with the 2-year rainfall total for Sep 2012 being the lowest since 1900

  30. Summary Inflows to Lake Lanier have dropped sharply and streamflows and ground water remain near historic lows in southern GA and AL Full basin inflows have dropped below 2000 cfs, well below the 5000 cfs needed to meet minimum flows for the Apalachicola Composite storage for the basin is in the middle of conservation zone 3 and is expected to continue to track downward for the near future Less than 0.5 inch of rainfall is forecast I the basin for the next 5 days

  31. Summary ENSO Neutral conditions continue, which means that we can expect 3 to 5 inches of rain in the ACF for each of the months of November and December The 3-month outlook calls for relief of drought through most of the basin Nonetheless, streamflow forecasts for the next 1 month show the greatest probability of below normal streamflows throughout the basin Streamflows for the next 3 months also have the greatest probability of being below normal, except for Lake Lanier, which is has a 42% probability of being normal, but also has a 37% probability of being below normal

  32. References Speakers Pam Knox, UGA Victor Murphy, NWS Todd Hamill, SERFC Bailey Crane, USACE Jeff Dobur, SERFC Moderator Keith Ingram, SECC Additional information • General drought information • http://drought.govhttp://www.drought.unl.edu • General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/ • Streamflow monitoring & forecasting • http://waterwatch.usgs.gov • http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/ • Groundwater monitoring • http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

  33. Thank you! Next briefing 20 November 2012, 1:00 pm EST Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://drought.gov/drought/regional-programs/acfrb/acfrb-home Please send comments and suggestions to: ktingram@ufl.edu

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