Interdicting Social Networks: Techniques for Separating Terrorist Groups

1. Interdicting Social Networks Cpt Tobias Uwe Kuhn (Lt Paul Ortiz)

2. Outline • Introduction • Assumptions • Defining the Model • Scenarios 1 - 4 • Conclusions

3. Introduction Show Video

4. Question http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/computational_tools/datasets/index.html How can we interdict a social network by identifying potential detainees, such that a group as big as possible is separated.

5. Assumptions • Perfect knowledge about terrorists’ social network • We cannot detain the ways of communication • We cannot detain bin Laden himself • We can detain everyone else (for now)

6. Defining the Model ∞ ∞ 1 1 BIN BOUT AIN AOUT A B ∞ ∞ 1 CIN COUT C ∞ ∞ X D 1 1 XIN XOUT DIN DOUT ∞ ∞

7. Defining the Model ∞ t ∞ 1 1 BIN BOUT AIN AOUT 1 ∞ ∞ s-t cut 1 CIN COUT ∞ ∞ 1 1 1 XIN XOUT DIN DOUT ∞ s ∞

8. First Run Additional Constraint: Don’t use terrorist leader’s direct contacts as target nodes

9. Scenario 1: biggest possible group Result: Detain Wadih El Hage and Mohamed Owhali separates 12 terrorists from bin Laden.

10. Scenario 2: maximal group size of 4 Result: Detain Khalfan Mohamed and AchmedGhailani separates 4 terrorists from bin Laden.

11. Scenario 3: El Hage, Owhali save Result: Detain Khalfan Mohamed and AchmedGhailani separates 4 terrorists from bin Laden. (Yes, it is the same as in the previous scenario.)

12. Scenario 4: Commander briefing • “I need to know: What are the groups we can separate and who do we have to detain for that!” • Means all groups and detainees Show in GAMS

13. Conclusions • This model can be used on any social network • It gives crucial information on how to separate groups from the leader • Further research • Limit number of potential detainees • Add costs/probabilities of detaining a terrorist • Weighted connections • …

14. Questions? • Other separated groups: