The political geography of climate change

1. The political geography of climate change KGA171 The Global Geography of Change Presented by Associate Professor Elaine Stratford Semester 1

3. Part 1 Looking back, looking forward

4. Revising Lecture 4.3 What is the greenhouse effect? How does this effect differ from that called the enhanced greenhouse effect? Define ‘global warming potential’. With reference to carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, name the main anthropogenic sources for each and give their global warming potential. What is ozone and how does it work in the atmosphere? Why was the depletion of ozone of such concern in the last decades of the twentieth century and what actions were taken to address the problem? How is land use linked to climate change? Refer to modernization processes as part of your answer. What is an urban heat island? How do animal husbandry, forestry and energy production affect climate? Name several effects on the oceans and climate of melting ice. Explain why these effects occur. A Woman Thinking

5. Learning Objectives Module 4 Lecture 4 KGA171 demonstrate knowledge of geographical concepts, earth and social systems and spatial patterns of change create and interpret basic maps, graphs and field data identify and analyse different viewpoints to contribute to debates about global development communicate in reflective and academic writing, referencing literature when needed • be able to • explain the basics of science around climate change as represented by the IPCC • summarize certain political considerations implicated in climate change mitigation and adaptation • elucidate three kinds of geographies arising from climate change

6. Textbook Reading Bergman and Renwick (2008) pp. 86-90 and 580-1) IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change United Nations Development Program (2007) Human Development Report 2007/2008: Fighting Climate Change: Human solidarity in a divided world Critical reading What is the author’s purpose? What key questions or problems does the author raise? What information, data and evidence does the author present? What key concepts does the author use to organize this information, this evidence? What key conclusions is the author coming to? Are those conclusions justified? What are the author’s primary assumptions? What viewpoints is the author writing from? What are the implications of the author’s reasoning? [from Foundation for Critical Thinking] Old Woman Reading a Lectionary , Gerard Dou

7. Part 2 Science policy and politics of climate change

8. Peter Bridgman and Glyn Davis (1998) The Australian Policy Handbook, Allen and Unwin, Sydney.

9. United Nations United Nations Environment Programme World Meteorological Organization Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change

10. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

11. “… common but differentiated responsibilities …”

13. The Kyoto Protocol and Marrakesh Accords -40% -20% +20% +40%

14. “We are certain … emissions resulting from human activities … will enhance the greenhouse effect … The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect is not likely for a decade or more.”

15. “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.”

16. “… new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities.”

17. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal … very high confidencethat the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.”

19. World Health Organization (2003)

20. IPCC Scenarios

21. UNDP (2007) Human Development Report

22. Part 3 Three global geographies

23. The global geography of causes: industrialisation and development

24. Population increase in the era of development United States Census Bureau (2004, p.11)

25. 2000 – CO2 equivalent Causes by activity 2000 data, C02 equivalent www.wri.org/image/view/9529/_original

26. Causes by country

27. INDUSTRIALISED COUNTRIES = 79%

28. The global geography of impacts Regions put at physical risk by unabated climate change German Advisory Council on Global Change (2008) Climate Change as a Security Risk, Earthscan, London, p.161.

29. Environmental impacts: sea level riseAverage increase 1.8 mm/yr 1950-2000 or 9 cm Sea level rise mm/yr, average 1955-2003 IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007, p.412

30. Social impacts: conflict

31. Resource conflicts 1980-2005

32. Health impacts IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007, p.418.

33. The global geography of solutions Constraints + Opportunities + Choices • - environmental • - biological • technological • - scientific • - economic • - environmental • - biological • technological • - scientific • - economic - political - ethical - spiritual Social vulnerability, resilienceand capacity

34. Solutions: alternative energy sources Installations 1st Germany 2nd Japan 3rd US 59% world installations India 4th, China 6th Worldwatch Institute (2008) Vital Signs 2007-2008, WW Norton, New York, pp.37-39.

35. A new scenario?Halving emissions by 2050?“protect the climate system …on the basis of equity and … common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.”UNFCCC80% cut developed countries 20% cut developing countries UNDP (2007) Human Development Report 2007-2008, p.49.

36. Organizational • leadership • advocacy • training • advance and strategic planning • trust • capacity building • Physical • buildings and infrastructure • communications • energy systems • transportation • Financial • savings • credit • pensions and remittances • welfare payments • grants and subsidies • Human • health, skills and nutrition • education and knowledge • access to services • Social capital • relations of trust and reciprocity • common rules and norms • networks and groups • Natural • natural resources-food,water, wood/fibre • ecosystems services-soil, fisheries, water, biological processes, wildlife habitat, waste assimilation • beauty of nature-recreation/leisure, aesthetic value A sustainable world?