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ISSS/ISAC Annual Conference 2013 Washington, D.C. October 5, 2013

Prophecy or Propaganda? Nuclear Proliferation and the Marketplace of Ideas A. Trevor Thrall, GMU Christopher Whyte, GMU Andrew Armstrong, GMU. ISSS/ISAC Annual Conference 2013 Washington, D.C. October 5, 2013. Does democratic debate lead to prudent foreign policymaking?. Yes. No. ???.

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ISSS/ISAC Annual Conference 2013 Washington, D.C. October 5, 2013

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  1. Prophecy or Propaganda?Nuclear Proliferation and the Marketplace of IdeasA. Trevor Thrall, GMUChristopher Whyte, GMUAndrew Armstrong, GMU ISSS/ISAC Annual Conference 2013Washington, D.C.October 5, 2013

  2. Does democratic debate lead to prudent foreign policymaking? Yes No ???

  3. Research Questions • Just how robust is the marketplace of ideas with regards to complex foreign policy issues? • What factors and conditions are important for determining the quality and operation of the marketplace of ideas?

  4. Potential failure modes of the marketplace of ideas • Threat inflation • Failure of countervailing institutions • Imperfect intelligence

  5. Data & Methods • Cases: Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan • Content analysis: Associated Press 1978-2011 • Market quality: rhetorical certainty re nukes

  6. Iraq: The Big Picture

  7. Presidents Rule, Congress Drools: No “Rhetorical Coercion” Required

  8. Media Independence Is a Sometime Thing

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