Laboratory of Climate and Water Resources

1. Laboratory of Climate and Water Resources • Head – Professor Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz • Involved personel: • Dr Małgorzata Szwed • Dr Maciej Radziejewski • Ms Iwona Pińskwar • Mr Dariusz Graczyk ENSEMBLES RT6 MeetingLund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań. Poland

2. ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 Areas of PAS’s interests: droughts floods crop yield heat and cold waves

3. ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006

4. ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 • Estimating of the evaporation/evapotranspiration: • Turc equation for Europe • Ivanov equation for Europe • method of heat balance for Poland

5. ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 1961-1990 2071-2100 P, E, H in (mm) Based on Had RM3 PRECIS – result, For the future scenario A2 For grid-cell with the city of Poznań

6. ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 For grid-cell with the city of Poznań P, E, H in (mm) Based on Had RM3 PRECIS – result, For the future scenario A2

7. ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 Example: The potato yield (ton/ha) as a function of the July and August precipitations (mm) (Górski,1996).

8. Hot days (temp. max>35oC i temp. min>25oC) in the future 1 2 based on Had RM3 PRECIS – result 1. Average number of hot days in JJA 2. Average duration of hot days spell in JJA 3 4 3, 4 Diference of characteristics 1. and 2. (future versus present)

9. ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 How do we interpret the idea of ENSEMBLES RT6.2: Sought impact response surfaces: • Given T(x,y,t) and P(x,y,t) with daily resolution for future scenarios • Find IMPi(x,y,t), where IMPi is the i-th impact function, i=1, ..., N

10. ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 Three groups of problems: • Ensembles of climatic scenarios are not available yet! • Problems with real data availability (high costs which cannot be borne from low ENSEMBLES budget, restrictions, some data – e.g. on impacts – are not available at all – e.g. insurance data are classified). • Scarcity of data on extreme extremes, e. g. 1997 flood in Poland – by far exceeding all other events (hence – one data point only), the same for 2003 heat wave in much of Europe!

11. ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 Thank you