The Balkans and Europe in the Catch-Up Index

1. The Balkans and Europe in the Catch-Up Index Findings of the European Catch-Up Index 2012

2. What is the Catch-Up Index? • Are we there yet? • Are the ten “new”, post-communist member states of the EU – the EU10 – catching up with the “old”, “Western” EU members? • The index registers the level of convergence or divergence along four categories: • Economy • Quality of Life • Democracy and • Governance • The index also includes the EU candidate and potential candidate countries, so there are 35 countries covered by the index • The standardized scores of the source data are used – the scores are from 100 to 0 (highest to lowest) • There are two editions – the 2012 Index is still unpublished

4. How Europe has changed during the crisis? • The achievers and the slackers after several crisis years: the crisis have further distinguished between the better performing and the rest • In need of new models: the previous role-models for catching-up (e.g. Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain) has been hit the hardest • Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Estonia continue to be the outliers among the newer member states Appendix

6. The crisis effects are more visible than in the previous edition of the index • The better-fit are taking their place and climbing up the ranks, changing the map of Europe *Some “improvements” are due to the worsening situation in other countries

7. The New Map of Europe: The Six Clusters

8. Multi-tier Europe is a fact • The East-West divide is giving way to a North-South divide in Europe • This divide becomes even more visible in the 2012 Index • The Balkans are both South & East: is geography destiny? The six clusters of Europe • The cluster analysis of scores identified the groups (clusters) in Europe • A cluster combines countries with similar characteristics • The map of clusters demonstrates the divergence and convergence in Europe

9. Divergence in Europe • The economic crisis is not the only defining factor for the problems in Europe • Divergence across the board is threatening the European project • The fragmentation along the fault lines of Economy, Democracy, Governance and Quality of Life • And the current institutional setup may not hold up the pressure • “Cell division”: In the Balkans, Serbia and Macedonia have left their previous cluster, leaving Bulgaria, Romania and Montenegro on their own

10. The Economy clusters of Europe 2012

11. The Economy clusters illustrate: • A more stable North-Northwest • A vulnerable South and • A Southeast lagging behind • The dynamic of the better performers from CEE improving their positions • All Balkan countries have been grouped together in a Economy cluster of their own (save for Croatia and BiH)

12. The Catching-Up of the Balkans

13. The Balkans in impasse in overall catching-up? • Most of the Balkan countries neither improve nor worsen their overall positions in 2012

14. The Economy scores offer more dynamic picture • Yet, the changes are mostly within the own clusters • The Balkan countries continue to occupy the last positions in the ranking

15. Lessons for the Balkans? • Accession does not mean automatic integration • Top-down approaches in the EU only cannot do the job of convergence in the broader sense • Still, for the Balkans is better to be inside rather than outside the European Union • The Balkans “proper” occupy the last positions in the index • E.g. Greece is still holding on in Quality of Life, but in Economy it has joined its league

16. Better performing countries feature symmetry in their development

17. In Europe, countries with higher media freedom have better economy score

18. Comparing Economy and Quality of Life Scores • Many newer member states and candidates have lower Quality of Life than their Economy suggests • Some older member states still have way better Quality of Life despite they are in crisis

19. Marin Lessenski European Policies Initiative Open Society Institute – Sofia mlessenski@osi.bg www.osi.bg www.eupi.eu www.TheCatchUpIndex.eu