Solid State Lighting

1. July 1, 2008 Solid State Lighting

2. Overview • Basics • Review Potential SSL Measures & Applications • Scale of Conservation Potential • Initial Cost-Effectiveness • Forecast of Technological Progress

3. SSL Characteristics • Solid state • Potential for Long Life, up to 75K hours • Few catastrophic failures – They just fade away • Heat dissipation issues are most challenging • Favorable dimming & control characteristics • DC devices, no warm-up issues, tunable optics • Directional light output • Low infra-red spectral components

4. How Long?

5. Analytic Considerations • Compare luminaire efficacy AND output • Efficacy of: Lamp + Driver (ballast) + Fixture + Optics • Lumen output, beam shape & color • Design of the entire luminaire is key • Potential lamp replacement & labor savings (Long Life) • Dubious manufacturer & vendor claims • Performance metrics & test procedures • LM-79 is just two months old

6. Emerging SSL Products & Applications • Outdoor Lighting • Street & Roadway • Walkway • Parking • Façade & Signage • Refrigeration Display Case • Recessed Can Downlight • MR16 Replacements • Desk Lamp / Task Lighting • Undercabinet

7. Sources • DOE Caliper Program • Our own PNL providing lots of horse power • Selected Demonstrations

8. Outdoor LightingStreet & Roadway, Walkway, Parking • Promising near-term potential (10% - 40%) • Efficacy as good or better than HPS & Metal Halide • Lots of room for improvement over existing stock • More useful light, less glare, better color rendering, better contrast ratios, fewer night sky issues, dimming control • Half or more of the energy savings are from these factors as opposed to source efficacy • Half or more of $ value from longer life

10. Directional Point SourcesTunable Optics

11. Street & Roadway Cost-Effectiveness • Potentially cost-effective in new (lost-opportunity) • TRC Net Levelized Cost • Range 20 – 200 mills / kWh • TRC B/C ratios 0.5 to 1.1 • Uncertainties • First Cost: $5-10/watt or $1-3/million-lumen-hours • Life: 50K to 75K+ hours (cool ambient conditions) • Maintenance Cost Savings: • $10-30/head/year streetlights • 1 to 2 times the PV of energy saved

12. Street & Roadway Savings Potential • Roadway Use: 1% of total loads (Navigant 2002) • For PNW that’s 200 MWa total roadway load • Save 30-40% of that or 60-80 MWa • How long will it take? This cobra head HPS fixture was installed in 1981. It’s still out there.

13. Walkway, Parking, Facade • Similar application efficacy gains (10-40%) • Somewhat lower maintenance savings • Don’t need the truck as much • Higher potential dimming & occupancy control • Acceptance issues • Size in MWa • Don’t know yet • But pretty big and growing

14. Signage • Good Application • Color, control, longevity, low maintenance • PNW Potential based on Navigant 2003 • 30-40 MWa in 2002 • Growing end use

15. Refrigerated Display Case • Cool ambient application, long life, saves refrigeration • Replaces T-12 & T-8 fluorescent • TRC Net Levelized Cost: 30 to 100 mills/kWh • Now with occupancy sensors – more savings • Not big MWa

16. Downlights

19. Interior Downlights • Higher ambient T - shorter life - 35K hours • Efficacy similar to CFL • Cost higher than CFL • Niches where new potential: • Where dimming & occupancy & color are valuable • Hard-to-reach & high change labor

20. Check out the MR16 Replacements • Benchmark: 20W MR 16, halogen, 40° • 200-450 lumens • 9-19 lumens/watt • CBCP 500

21. Dubious Claims

22. Desk Lamp & Task Light

23. Undercabinet

24. Power Factors All Over the Place

25. Rate of Improvement • 35% per year improvement in efficacy • 20% per year cost reduction

26. Emerging SSL Products & Applications • Outdoor Lighting • Street & Roadway • Walkway • Parking • Façade & Signage • Refrigeration Display Case • Recessed Can Downlight • MR16 Replacements • Desk Lamp / Task Lighting • Undercabinet • Good Applications • Promising Economics • New Potential MWa • High-Cost CFL • Some Niche Applications • Not there yet