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The Appeasement Crisis

The Appeasement Crisis. Ionia Workshop 2011 Gary Armstrong, Ph.D. William Jewell College. What is Appeasement?. A state makes concessions either 1) to avoid war or 2) to postpone war until it’s in a better position to fight Key Successful Case: 1895 GB and US over Venezuela.

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The Appeasement Crisis

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  1. The Appeasement Crisis Ionia Workshop 2011 Gary Armstrong, Ph.D. William Jewell College

  2. What is Appeasement? • A state makes concessions either 1) to avoid war or 2) to postpone war until it’s in a better position to fight • Key Successful Case: 1895 GB and US over Venezuela

  3. 1922: Rapollo German CW Staff in Soviet Union 1928 Von Seeckt

  4. 1923: France Occupies Ruhr

  5. The World Crisis “Fascism” “Totalitarianism”

  6. Fate of Democracy Democratic Democratic State Founding Regime Falls Italy 1925 Germany 1919 1933 Czechoslovakia 1918 1938* Poland 1919 1926 Austria 1920 1933 Hungary 1920* 1932 Estonia 1918 1934 Latvia 1920 1934

  7. Locarno Treaty 1925 • Actually 7 Treaties • Germany accepts border changes in West after WWI • Germany accepted into European order, admitted to League of Nations • Germany, Belgium, Britain, France, Italy agree form defensive pact • Germany pledged to use arbitration for any dispute with Poland and Czechoslovakia • France re-confirmed defense pacts with Poland and Czechoslovakia

  8. German LeaderGustav Streseman • 1878-1929 • Son of Berlin beer distributor • Won Nobel Peace Prize for Locarno • View of Weimar: Vernunftrepublikaner • Chancellor, Germany, Aug-Nov 1923 • Foreign Minister, Nov 1923-1929 • “Fulfillment” Policy (à la Nixon to China) “…gain a free hand to secure peace change of borders in the East and…later incorporation of German territories in the East”

  9. Stresemann, 1923 • “All our measures of a political and diplomatic nature, through deliberate cooperation by the two Anglo-Saxon Powers, the estrangement of Italy from [France], and the vacillation of Belgium, have combined to create a situation for France that the country will not in the long run be able to sustain.” • Kissinger, Diplomacy, citing Stresemann diaries

  10. French LeaderAristide Briand • 1862-1932 • Early fame for work on separation of church and state • Leader, French Socialist Party • Prime Minister 1909-1911, 1915-1917, 1921-22, 1925-26, 1929 • 1928: Pact of Paris, or Kellogg-Briand Pact, outlawing war • Gets along well with Stresemann “I conduct the foreign policy of France’s birth rate.”

  11. British LeaderAustin Chamberlain • 1863-1937 • Son of great Joseph Chamberlain, Mother dies during his birth; Half-brother: Neville • Love of France • Conservative Leader, but only one not to become PM • 1915-1917: Secretary of State for India • 1918-1921 : Chancellor of Exchequer • 1924-1929: Foreign Affairs • 1930s: Strong supporter of re-armament, Churchill ally “For the Polish Corridor, no British government ever will or ever can risk the bones of a British grenadier.” 1925

  12. Situation • Little Entente formed (Czechoslovakia, Romania, Yugoslavia, France, 1924-27)

  13. France & “Little Entente” French alliances

  14. Challenges to Versailles • 1934: Germany leaves League of Nations • 1934: Hitler tries to take over Austria but fails • 1935: Hitler re-introduces conscription, repudiates other disarmament obligations in Versailles Treaty • 1936: German troops into Rhineland • 1936: Germany military intervention to support fascists in Spanish Civil War • 1938: Germany annexes Austria • 1938: Germany annexes Sudetenland • 1939: Germany annexes rest of Czechoslovakia • 1939: Germany invades Poland – World War in Europe begins

  15. The “German Problem” AgainGermany’s Relative Power in the International System

  16. Population(M) 1913 1920 1928 1938 USSR 175 127 150 180 USA 97 106 119 138 Germany 67 43 55.4 68.5 Britain 46 44 46 48 France 39.7 39 41 42

  17. Relative Industrial Potential(UK 1900 = 100) 1928 1938 Britain 135 181 US 533 528 France 82 74 Germany 158 214 USSR 72 152

  18. Defense Expenditures $M, current Year Germany UK France USSR USA • 162 512 498 722 699 • 452 333 524 707 579 • 3,298 1,245 890 3,446 1,621 • 7,415 1,863 919 5,429 1,131

  19. Military Aircraft Production 1932 1935 1937 1939 1941 1944 France (600) 785 743 3,163 -- -- Britain 445 1,140 2,153 7,940 21K 26K USA 593 459 949 2,195 26K 96K Germany 36 3,183 5,606 8,295 12K 40K USSR 2,595 3,578 3,578 10,382 15K 40K

  20. 1935-37

  21. 1938: Anschluss

  22. 1938 after Munich

  23. 3/1939: Czechoslovakia gone

  24. 1939: Poland (& Balts) gone

  25. Maginot Line

  26. Maginot Line Underground

  27. Map of Maginot Line

  28. Sudetenland Red areas indicate > 80% German in 1930 census

  29. Munich 1938: Carving up Czechoslovakia

  30. Fate of Democracy DemocDemoc Regime State Founding Collapses Germany 1919 1933 Czechoslovakia 1918 1938* Poland 1918 1926 Austria 1920 1933 Hungary 1920* 1932 Estonia 1918 1934 Latvia 1920 1934

  31. Neville Chamberlain1869-1940 British Prime Minister, 1937-40

  32. Chamberlain: Peace in our Time (Sept 1939)

  33. Chamberlain’s Case • Difficulty of Evaluating Hitler’s Intentions • Hitler’s offers at Rhineland Crisis 1936 • Hitler’s offers during Munich Crisis 1938 • Hitler's actual objectives (Hossbach Memo, 1937) • Britain not ready for war • Britain’s geopolitical nightmare • British Public Opinion • Defining Appeasement • General Definition • 1895 – US & GB: Appeasement worked

  34. The Churchill Debates “Appeasement is feeding a crocodile and hoping to be eaten last.” -- Churchill

  35. Churchill Critics John Charmley U of East Anglia David Irving

  36. Christopher Hitchens

  37. Churchill’s Case • We should have gone to war in 1938 • The German Generals • Military balance was not bad • The Soviets • The balance of power worsened after 1938 • Munich did not get Britain any “breathing space”

  38. Balance of Military Power 1938 1939 British Army to France 2 divisions 4 divisions RAF 5 squadrons Hurricane/ 26 squadrons Spitfire French Army 100 divisions 100 divisions French tanks 1350 2250 Czech Army 40 div 0 German regular Army 47 div 51 div German reserves 51div 51 div German west defense 10 div 12 reg div, 25 reserve div Tanks 2x 1938 Panzer divisions 3 6 German submarines 6 26 German major warships 1 11 Taylor, Munich

  39. What Germany Got from CZSafter Munich • 1,231 aircraft • 810 tanks • 1,996 anti-tank guns • 2,254 field artillery pieces • 57,000 machine guns • 630,000 rifles Murray & Millett, A War to Be Won

  40. Armament Programs Country Year Amount G Britain 1935-36 £122.2 M G Britain 1938-39 £319.6 M France 1934 11.4 B francs France 1938 26 B francs Encarta

  41. Josef Dzhugashvili, aka Stalin • 1879-1953, b. in Georgia • Soviet Dictator, 1928-53 • 1928: First “Five Year Plans” begin • Brutal policies led to 25-30 million dead before WW2 • Ideological communist? • Great Russia Nationalist? • Risk-acceptant or Risk-adverse? “The death of one man is a tragedy; the death of a million is a statistic.”

  42. Stalin & Hitler • 1932-33: Stalin prevents Socialist-Communist cooperation to stop Hitler from taking power • 1934-38: Popular Front Policy • 1938: Stalin at Munich • 1939-41: Appeasement • June 1941: Disaster of Barbarossa

  43. 1938: Anschluss

  44. Stalin Purges the Red Army • Feb 1937 to Nov 1938 • “Great Purge” • 3 of 5 Marshals • 3 of 4 Army Commanders • All 15 second-rank army commanders • Both fleet commanders • 51 of 57 Corps commanders • 140 of 186 division commanders Marshal Tukachevsky Tucker, Stalin in Power, 1992 Robert Tucker, Stalin in Power

  45. The Hitler-Stalin Pact, 1939

  46. Kissinger’s Analysis:What Went Wrong? • Mistake: Focus on Motive rather than Power • Mistake: West rearmed too late • Mistake: Contradiction in French Strategy Basic Lessons • Paradox of Peace Policy: Peace at any price can produce war • Warning: Few situations in IR deal with unambiguous evil like Hitler

  47. Fall of FranceMay-June 1940

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