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Polar Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation in CCSM3 IPCC Scenario Simulations

Polar Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation in CCSM3 IPCC Scenario Simulations. June22 2006 Haiyan Teng NCAR/CGD H. Teng, W. M. Washington, G. A. Meehl, L.E. Buja and G. W. Strand, 2006: Twenty-first century Arctic climate change in the CCSM3 IPCC scenario simulations, Climate Dynamics.

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Polar Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation in CCSM3 IPCC Scenario Simulations

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  1. Polar Climate Change and the Arctic Oscillation in CCSM3 IPCC Scenario Simulations June22 2006 Haiyan Teng NCAR/CGD H. Teng, W. M. Washington, G. A. Meehl, L.E. Buja and G. W. Strand, 2006: Twenty-first century Arctic climate change in the CCSM3 IPCC scenario simulations, Climate Dynamics

  2. Sea Ice Concentration Sea Ice Extent

  3. Moritz et al. (Science 2002) review “Dynamics of recent climate change in the Arctic” http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ Overland and Wang, 2005: The Arctic climate paradox: The recent decrease of the Arctic Oscillation

  4. 1870-2099 TAS EOF1 TAS EOF2 SLP EOF1

  5. PDF of the AO index (SLP EOF1) Red: 21st century Black:20th century A2 A1B B1

  6. Conclusions • The AO is the dominant mode in the wintertime atmosphere and sea ice variability in the 1870-1999 historical runs. • The AO shifts to the positive phase in response to anthropogenic forcing in the 21st century but the simulated AO trends are smaller than the observed. • The AO plays a secondary role (<10% of the total variance) in the 21st century while 50%-70% of the total variances are explained by the warming trend.

  7. Surface Temperature EOF1

  8. Surface temperature EOF2

  9. Sea level pressure EOF1

  10. Questions • How does the AO respond to the anthropogenic forcing? • Thinning of current Arctic sea ice: triggered by the early 1990s’ positive AO? • Climate variability under a warming trend

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