World Meteorological Organization

1. World Meteorological Organization Outcomes of the Symposium on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems for Integrated Disaster Risk Management, Geneva, May 2006 Dr Maryam Golnaraghi, Chief of WMO DRR ProgrammeExpert Meeting on “National Meteorological and Hydrological Services’ Participation in Disaster Risk Reduction Coordination Mechanisms and Early Warning Systems”27 November 2007

2. Economic Losses Related to Disasters are on the Way Up Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

3. While Casualties related to Hydro-Meteorological Disasters are Decreasing Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

4. Disaster Risk Managementand Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 Governance and Organizational Coordination Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Sectoral planning Early Warning Systems Emergency preparedness planning Education and training Historical hazard data and analysis Changing hazard trends Vulnerability assessment Risk quantification Cat Insurance and Bond Markets Weather Derivatives Knowledge Sharing

5. Strong Wind Coastal Marine Hazards Tropical Cyclones Heavy rainfall / Flood Heatwaves Need for Prevention and Mitigation Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate Energy Water Resource Management Food security Transport Intensity Industry Health Urban areas Exposure is increasing ! Hazard Frequency

6. Early Warning Systems National to local disaster risk reduction plans and legislation

7. Communities at risk National to local governments post-disasterresponse NATIONAL SERVICES Meteorological Hydrological warning Geological Marine Health (etc.)…

8. Effective Early Warning Systems Community Preparedness National to local governments supported by DRR plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms requirements preventiveactions requirements warning warning NATIONAL SERVICES Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health (etc.) warning requirements (coordination)

9. First WMO Symposium ″Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems″ WMO Headquarter, May 2006 • Goals: 1) To explore further the concept of “multi-hazard” approach to early warning systems, 2) To recommend examples of good practices • Participants: 100 experts and practitioners from 20 agencies, NMHSs, WMO Programmes • Co-Sponsored by: ISDR Secretariat, World Bank, UNDP, IFRC, UNESCO, OCHA http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/ews_symposium_2006

10. Need for Strong Governance, Organizational Coordination and Operational Processes • 3) Dissemination and Communication • Effective warning messages • Incorporation of information about risks in warning messages • Understandable warning messages • Authoritative warnings (Authentication of sources) • Dissemination networks • Interoperability (use of international standards) • Redundancy and resilience of networks • Same distribution channels for warnings of different hazards (cost efficiency, reliability and effectiveness) • Standard warning terminologies (nationwide, and across borders, traffic light concept) • 1) Early Detection, Monitoring and Warning Services • Strengthen observation systems • Coverage • Sustainability • Inter-operability • Multi-use of networks (where practical) • Built on "system of systems" concept • Data policies • Prediction and forecasting • Methodologies, accuracy and lead time • Multi-disciplinary • 2) Risk Knowledge and Integration in Warning Messages • Data gaps, quality, accessibility, sharing • Hazard • Vulnerability(e.g. socio-economic, topographic…) • Standardized methodologies and expertise(e.g. hazard analysis, risk modelling) • Understanding of the changing patterns of risk (e.g. hazard, vulnerabilities) • Local capacities • 4) Integration in Preparedness and Response Processes • Education and awareness (emergency responders, authorities, risk managers, emergency responders, media, public…): • Understanding of warnings and uncertainties • Awareness of less frequent events • Cross-Training of Operational Agencies • Operational planning • Drills • Community preparedness

11. Criteria for Good Practices in EWS • Political commitment, DRR plans, legislation, roles and responsibilities (national to local) • Overall Coordination and operational working mechanisms among agencies • Capacity for delivery of “best available information” to address government demand in support of decision-making • Authoritative, understandable warnings • Combine hazard, risk and response information • Dissemination Mechanisms • Match resources and culture • Sustainability, interoperability, reliability • Integration of warning information in emergency preparedness and response actions • Community-based emergency preparedness and training programmes • Feedback mechanisms to improve the system

12. WMO EWS Symposium Identified Examples of Good Practices • France Vigilance system • Shanghai Emergency Preparedness System • Cuba tropical cyclone early warning system • Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme • Noted that there are other such good practices that need to be also identified

13. Example: Regional Cooperation for Tropical Cyclone Early Warning Systems • 6 Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres • 6 Regional Technical Commission Committees(involving all countries at-risk) • Support to all countries at risk of Tropical Cyclone

14. Example: Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh

15. Strong wind Strong rainfall Thunderstorm Snow/Ice Avalanches Heat waves Hazards + NEW: Flood warning map France Vigilance System Level of warning Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 Warnings activate cascades of preparedness and response plans, actions and responsibilities Legislation Planning Authoritative WarningsOrganizational linkages Training and feedback national to local authorities

16. France Vigilance Strategy: 20 years of History in Tropical Islands

17. Shanghai City: Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Emergency Response Programme Governance : (mega) city-level. Organisational: Top-down (monitoring, forecasting, warning) and bottom-up Operational: Community-based + high tech monitoring and alerting tools Multi-Hazard Approach: Services are specialized but shared for alert dissemination and response mechanisms.

18. WMO National and Regional Projects for Implementation and Strengthening of Multi-Hazard EWS • EWS Demonstration projects • France • China (Shanghai) • India • 3 countries in Central America (with World Bank and IFRC) • US/Canada transboundary • European river basin (transboundary) • Eastern Europe (with World Bank and ISDR) • Technical Capacity Development for Specific Hazards • Severe weather (Southern Africa and Pacific) • Flash flood guidance system (Central America and Southern Africa) • Sand and dust storm (Middle-East and Northern Africa) • Drought (South-East Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa)

19. Multi-Hazard Early Warning Demonstration Projects 1) Documentation of governance, organizational coordination and operational processes; • NMHSs’ support and response to national to local needs • Strengthening operational capacities and inter-agencies coordination and cooperation for • Development, delivery and utilization of warnings • Driven by priorities and requirements 3) Analysis of socio-economic benefits of early warning systems and sustainability of capacities 4) Sharing experiences and good practices • Publications, manuals, study tours, training workshops, symposia

20. (1)Governance, Organizational Coordination and Operational Processes (3)Cost-BenefitsAnalysis (2) Strengthened operational Technical capacities and inter-agency cooperation Disaster Preparedness and Response Systems D A T A Warnings, specialized forecasts, and other Services Protection of lives, livelihood and property Media Internet Internet SMS Other

21. Coordination and Cooperation With Other Agencies for Early Detection, Development and Issuance of Warning Increasing Level of coordination with civil protection and risk management agencies for issuance of warnings Type I Type II Type III Hazard under mandate of other agencies but NMHS contribute e.g. locust, health epidemic, man-made hazards Hazard under joint mandate with another technical agency e.g. floods, landslides, heat/health etc. Hazard fully under the mandate of NMHS e.g. strong winds, strong rainfall, snow/ice, hail, tropical cyclone Increasing Level of coordination with technical agencies for early detection, monitoring and development of warnings

22. Symposium on ″Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems″ to be held annually from Q1 2009 • Goals: 1) To take stock of what would have been achieved through demonstration projects, with respect to governance, organizational coordination and operational processes, 2) To exchange good practices and experiences • Participants: Experts and practitioners from national and international agencies involved in EWS • Q1 2009, the Second Symposium will be held in Toulouse, France

23. Thank You For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int http://www.wmo.int/disasters

24. Improving Warnings Quality and lead times Short- to Medium-Range Weather Seasonal Forecasts Short-Term Climate Long-Term Climate Emergency Preparedness and Response Preparedness Sectoral plans

25. Status of Early Detection and Forecasting Capacities • Drought • Predictability lead time: from weeks to seasons • Key factors: Timing, Geographical area, Intensity, Duration • Key indicators: Precipitation, groundwater and reservoir levels, soil moisture, satellite observations, ENSO • Floods and Related Hazards (Land-slides) • Predictability lead time: from minutes (flash floods) to weeks (riverine flood) • Key factors: Timing, Geographical area, Water level, Velocity • Key indicators: precipitation, soil moisture, (snow cover + temperature), Satellite observations, ENSO • Tropical Cyclones, Severe Storms, Storm Surges • Predictability lead time: up to 72 hours • Key factors: Intensity (Saffir-Simpson Scale), Storm track, Landfall • Key indicators: Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Sea-Level Pressure, Saharan Air Layer (SAL), Satellite observations, ENSO • Other Climate-Related Hazards: e.g., Locust Swarms • Predictability lead time: up to six weeks • Key factors: Timing, Geographical area, Intensity, Duration • Breeding conditions indicators: Rainfall anomalies, Wind direction and persistence, Soil moisture, Vegetation distribution, Satellite observations