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World Meteorological Organization

World Meteorological Organization Status of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa (WMO Regional Association I) (based on WMO DPM Country-level Survey 2006) By ? ? (?). We cannot avoid hazards.

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World Meteorological Organization

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  1. World Meteorological Organization Status of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction in Africa (WMO Regional Association I) (based on WMO DPM Country-level Survey 2006) By ? ? (?)

  2. We cannot avoid hazards

  3. …but we can Prevent Them from Becoming Disasters One Dollar spent on disaster preparedness can prevent 5 - 10 Dollar of disaster-related losses Source: World Resources Institute

  4. Agenda • Impacts of Weather-, Water- and Climate-Related Extreme Events in Africa • Examples of Benefits of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services to Disaster Risk Reduction • Challenges for Reduction of Disasters Related to Weather, Water and Climate • How can WMO help?

  5. Impacts of Weather-, Water- and Climate-Related Extreme Events in Africa

  6. Regional Distribution of Natural Disasters (Number of Events, 1980-2005) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

  7. Regional Distribution of Natural Disasters (Loss of life, 1980-2005) Heatwave: 50 000 Earthquake: 30 000 Windstorms: 230 000 Earthquake: 205 000 Tsunami: 60 000 Flooding: 40 000 Windstorms: 30 000 Epidemics/famine: 260 000 Windstorms: 40 000 Landslides: 15 000 Flooding: 45 000 Drought: 500 000 Earthquake: 155 000 Epidemics/famine: 120 000 Tsunami: 170 000 Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

  8. Regional Distribution of Natural Disasters (Economic Losses in billion USD, 1980-2005) Flooding: 69 Windstorms: 39 Earthquake: 50 Flooding: 194 Flooding:8 Windstorms: 30 Windstorms: 90 Earthquake: 10 Drought: 3 Earthquake: 170 Earthquake: 11 Wild Fires: 18 Flooding: 23 Drought: 5 Flooding: 3 Windstorms: 3 Drought: 11 Earthquake: 9 Tsunami: 4 Windstorms: 14 Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

  9. African Countries Included in the Statistical Analysis • Algeria • Angola • Benin • Botswana • Burkina Faso • Burundi • Cameroon • Cape Verde • Central African Republic • Chad • Comoros • Congo • Democratic Republic of the Congo • Djibouti • Egypt • Eritrea • Ethiopia • Gabon • Gambia • Ghana • Guinea • Guinea Bissau • Ivory Coast • Kenya • Lesotho • Liberia • Libyan Arab Jamahiriya • Madagascar • Malawi • Mali • Mauritania • Mauritius • Morocco • Mozambique • Namibia • Niger • Nigeria • Rwanda • Sao Tome and Principe • Senegal • Seychelles • Sierra Leone • Somalia • South Africa • Sudan • Swaziland • Togo • Tunisia • Uganda • United Republic of Tanzania • Zambia • Zimbabwe

  10. Distribution of Natural Disasters Events in Africa (1980-2005) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium More than 95 % of natural disasters are related to Climate or Meteorological / Hydrological hazards.

  11. Impacts of Natural Disasters in Africa (Casualties, 1980-2005) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium 1984: 550 000 casualties (Ethiopia, Sudan, Mozambique,Chad) Meningitis: 48,000 Cholera / Diarrhoeal: 46,000 Nearly 98 % of casualties are related to Climate or Meteorological / Hydrological hazards.

  12. Impacts of Natural Disasters in Africa(Economic losses in USD, 1980-2005) Algeria: 10 billion USD(1980, 1985, 1987, 1999, 2003) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium 45 % of economic losses are related to Climate or Meteorological / Hydrological hazards.

  13. Reducing / Managing Risks of Disasters

  14. What do we Mean by Risk ? Hazard Vulnerability Risk Intensity HIGHERRISK Vulnerability Frequency

  15. Financial tools • Insurance • Weather derivatives • Cat bonds Sectoral planning Early Warning Systems Emergency Preparedness planning Education and training • Historical hazard data and analysis • Changing hazard trends • Vulnerability assessment • Risk quantification Disaster Risk Management Involves a Wide Range of Decisions and Actions Disaster Risk Management Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer

  16. Need for Partnerships and Coordination Among Different Players Governance, Organizations, Operations Sectoral Planning Scientific, Technical, Research, Operational Services (Hazard Observing & Forecasting, Risk Identification) Civil Protection & Humanitarian (Emergency Preparedness and Response) Financial(Risk Transfer) Media (Communication)

  17. Processes and mechanisms • Integration of information in decision process • Preparedness and drills • Training •  Effective response •  Feedback • Strong political will and commitment • Disaster management plans • Legislation and policies (all levels) • Legal frameworks  Clarity of roles and responsibilities Coordination and partnerships Integrated planning Need for Effective and Harmonized Governance, Institutional and Operational Mechanisms Disaster Risk Management Operational Governance Organizational

  18. Shifting Disaster Risk Management from Reaction to Prevention • Traditionally, disaster risk management approach has been focused on emergency response and recovery measures World Conference on Disaster Reduction (WCDR)168 countries adopted Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) Kobe, Japan, January 2005 • Shifting disaster risk management to a more comprehensive approach, involving • prevention • preparedness • contingency planning • emergency response and recovery measures.

  19. Benefits of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services to Disaster Risk Reduction

  20. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services • Provide products and services, 24/7 • Meteorological, hydrological, climate and hazard information and mapping • Early Detection, Forecasts and Warnings (next hour to climate time scales) Severe storms, tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons), storm surges, floods, cold spells, heat waves, droughts, forest fires, locust swarms, etc…

  21. Disaster/Emergency Management Systems Hazards: Emergency Planning RISK MANAGEMENT Hazards, Climatic design values Special forecasts; Risk guidance Forecasts & Warnings; improved Warning systems CRISES MANAGEMENT

  22. WMO Scientific and international research Programmes - Advancing the knowledge of natural hazards and their changing patterns Northern AtlanticOscillation La Niña Pacific Decadal Oscillation

  23. World Meteorological Organization 133 years of international and regional cooperation in support of national capacities for meteorological, climate and hydrological services for socio-economic development

  24. WMO Coordinated Networks in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction:Observation & Communication Coordinated Satellite Activities Global Observing System Global Telecommunication System

  25. Regional Coordinated Networks in Support of Early Warnings, Specialized Services and Training

  26. Return on Investment in Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services : 10 to 1 WMO Secretary-General, Madrid, 19 March 2007 Building capacities of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services is an investment toward national development.

  27. Example of Regional Cooperation: WMO Global Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System Regional cooperation (6 Regional Centres) in support of national tropical cyclone early warning systems

  28. Supporting National Capacities for Disaster Risk Management 24 hours a day, everyday of the year, in every country National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Needs, requirements, Feedback Products and Services

  29. Contributions of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to Risk Identification • Availability of historical and real-time hazard databases • Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies • Severity , Frequency, Location, Timing • Statistical analysis of historical data • GIS/GPS mapping • Probabilitic climate models – Forward looking trend analysis • Emerging technologies (factors in changing patters due to climate variablity and change)

  30. Contribution of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to Risk Reduction • Input into sectoral planning (zoning, development, etc) • Early warning systems • Probabilistic forecasting and warnings from next hour to longer climate timescales • Integration of risk information into warning messages • Communication and dissemination • Partnerships, joint planning and joint training with national agencies responsible of emergency preparedness and response • Meteorological Services in support of pre- and post-disaster response and relief operations

  31. Contribution of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to Risk Transfer • Crop / flood insurance • Agricultural and drought derivatives Government Private sector products provider example Insurance Weather derivatives Catastrophe bonds • Insurance for property and casualty • Micro-insurance • Weather derivatives • Catastrophe bonds forhurricanes

  32. WMO Coordinated Networks in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction:Observation & Communication Coordinated Satellite Activities Global Observing System Global Telecommunication System

  33. WMO Scientific and International Research Programmes - Advancing the Knowledge of Natural Hazards and their Changing Patterns Northern AtlanticOscillation La Niña Pacific Decadal Oscillation

  34. Objectives • To determine the predictability of climate • To determine the effect of human activities on climate Strategic Framework 05-15: To facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth system variability & change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit & value to society

  35. WCRP Climate Research In Africa • CLIVAR-VACS: Variability of the African Climate System • African Climate Atlas • WCRP/WCP/START Workshop, Tanzania, July 06 • AMMA: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses • 2nd Int. Conference, Germany, Nov. 07

  36. Improve Climate Info Quality & Delivery WCRP JSC-28 in Zanzibar (March 2007): • Tanzania Meteorological Agency (local host) • Build stronger networks especially in Africa • Deliver value to NMHS, sponsors and end users WCRP/WCP/START Workshop for young African scientists, March 28, 2007

  37. IPCC AR4 • IPCC AR4 CMIP3 archive: >1000 users, 200 pubs • WCRP is mainstay of WGI (science) plus input WGII & WGIII • African Climate Atlas, Part VI: To include IPCC AR4 data Workshops: • GCOS-WCRP-IGBP workshop “Learning from AR4” (Sydney, Australia, Oct. 07) • WCRP-ICTP Training Seminar: Interpreting Climate Change Simulations: Capacity Building for Developing Nations (Nov. 07)

  38. Climate Predictions for Malaria High malaria years Low malaria years Palmer et al., 2006 WMO Norbert Gerbier-Mumm Award Prize money being used for malaria project in Tanzania Seasonal prediction workshop: Barcelona June 07 Thompson et al. 2006

  39. Regional Coordinated Networks in Support of Early Warnings, Specialized Services and Training

  40. WMO Mechanisms to Support Members' Scientific and Technical Capacities Thematic Regional 8 Technical Commissions 2 World Meteorological Centres (WMC) Basic Systems (CBS) Instruments and Methods of Observations (CIMO) Hydrology (CHy) Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM) Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) Climatology (CCl) 6 Regional Associations (RA) Members' National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) 40 Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres (RSMC) 10 Programmes Applications of Meteorology (AMP) Atmospheric Research and Environment (AREP) Education and Training (ETR) Hydrology and Water Resources (HWR) Regional (RP) Technical Cooperation (TCO) World Climate (WCP) Space (WSP) Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DPM) World Weather Watch (WWW) 30 Regional Meteorological Training Centres (RMTC) PARTNERS

  41. 24 hours a day, everyday of the year, in every country National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Hazard analysis, advisory and warning servicesfor a wide range of hazards Feedbacks, needs, requirements

  42. WMO Sustainable Integrated Capacity Development Action Plan in Disaster Risk Reduction Implementation through regional and national projects, including the following elements: • Modernization of NMHSs and observing networks. • Implementation of national operational multi-hazard early warning systems. • Strengthening of hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment tools. • Strengthening NMHSs cooperation with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies. • Coordinated training and public outreach programmes.

  43. Components of Effective Early Warning Systems Governance, Organization and Operations “Authoritative” Understandable Warnings & Dissemination Mechanism Observing, detecting & Forecasting of Hazards Risk Identification and Integration in Warning Messages Integration in Emergency Preparedness, and Response

  44. Symposium on Multi-Hazard EWS for Integrated Disaster Management (WMO Headquarters, 23-24 May 2006) • Issues: Governance, institutional, technical, operational, resource challenges, benefits and synergies, along the four components of EWS • Participants: 99 experts and practitioners from 18 agencies working in different components of early warning system

  45. Communication and Dissemination • Effective warning messages: • Incorporation of information about risks in warning messages • Understandable warning messages • “Authoritative” warnings(Authentication of sources) • Dissemination networks: • Interoperability (use of international standards) • Redundancy and resilience of networks • Same distribution channels for warnings of different hazards (cost efficiency, reliability and effectiveness) • Standard warning terminologies • Nationwide and across borders • Traffic light concept Challenges for Effective Early Warning Systems • Risk Identification • Data gaps, quality, accessibility, sharing • Hazard • Vulnerability(e.g. socio-economic, topographic…) • Standardized methodologies and expertise (e.g. hazard analysis, risk modelling) • Understanding of the changing patterns of risk (e.g. hazard, vulnerabilities) • Local capacities • Observing, Detecting, Forecasting • Strengthen observation systems • coverage • sustainability • inter-operability • multi-use of networks (where practical) • built on "system of systems" concept • data policies • Prediction and forecasting • methodologies, accuracy and lead time • multi-disciplinary • Emergency Planning, Preparedness and Response • Education and awareness (emergency responders, authorities, risk managers, emergency responders, media, public…): • Understanding of warnings and uncertainties • Awareness of less frequent events • Cross-training of operational agencies and media • Operational planning • Drills • Community preparedness and programmes Coordination and partnerships across components !

  46. Preliminary Analysis of the Response of African Countries to the Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction

  47. Global Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction Systematic Assessment of Capacities, Requirements and Priorities in Africa (final report to be published Q4 2007) • At national level: • Hazards affecting the countries • Role of NMHSs for disaster risk reduction • Capacities to deliver products and services in support of disaster risk reduction • Challenges, requirements and opportunities • At regional level: • Regional strategy for disaster risk reduction • Opportunities for partnerships

  48. Participation in the Survey 28 African countries contributed to the survey

  49. National Context for Disaster Risk Reduction:Legislation and Governance Disaster reduction activities are coordinated at the national level: 24 / 28 Disaster reduction activities are coordinated under the direct line authority of the head of government: 20 / 28 Legislation governs the way that disaster risk reduction is organized in the countries: 21 / 28

  50. National Context for Disaster Risk Reduction:National Structures/Mechanisms for Disaster Risk Reduction A national committee for disaster risk reduction involves multiple ministries and agencies: 23 / 28 A national legislation clearly defines the roles that each organization or agency plays within this national committee: 15 / 23 NMHS is a member of this national committee: 23 / 23

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